Posts: 8,501
Threads: 624
Joined: May 2003
I am very heavy cash right now. (and glad). So the main question now is Where is the bottom. The link below is a interesting view on the fact that American investors have been not taking the euro issue as seriously as they should be. Chasing the bottom down to new bottoms as it were.
<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://etfdailynews.com/2012/06/01/are-u-s-stocks-scared-enough-yet-iwm-tna-tza-vxz-indexsp-inx/">http://etfdailynews.com/2012/06/01/are- ... dexsp-inx/</a><!-- m -->
I liked his last paragraph.
Quote:But I think there’s a bit too much insouciance in some parts of the American investment community about the downside potential from the European economic and financial situation when combined with what appears to be a below-trend economic expansion in the United States. I will feel more confident about having seen a bottom in the stock market if and when the VIX and its sibling, the VXO, get above 30, which would tend to indicate that a lot of fear has re-entered the U.S. stock market. I’m not hoping for this, but till then, I’m concerned that my fellow investors are not quite concerned enough!
This is some interesting stuff when you look at it historically. here is a one year view of VIX, which basically measures volatility based on Options trading. Look back at 3Q last year, when we took a dump. VIX was stable until after the dump and then it was ranging from low 30's to low 40's. This guy is saying that we haven't seen the bottom until we see VIX above 30. Its at 25.04 today.
![[Image: z?s=%5eVIX&t=1y&q=&l=&z=l&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US®ion=US]](http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=%5eVIX&t=1y&q=&l=&z=l&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US®ion=US)
Does this indicate the Bottom is still south of today's drop? Might be interesting to watch. Below is a longer trend with TNA added that shows the market value as it relates to VIX. Interesting stuff.
![[Image: z?s=%5eVIX&t=2y&q=l&l=on&z=l&c=TNA&a=v&p...®ion=US]](http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=%5eVIX&t=2y&q=l&l=on&z=l&c=TNA&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US®ion=US)
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi
![[Image: maull2.gif]](http://bengtel.com/maull2.gif)
Posts: 5,093
Threads: 321
Joined: Dec 2004
I certainly dont know where it is since I thought it was 12.3k and bought TNA there heh.
Posts: 8,501
Threads: 624
Joined: May 2003
I honestly think your buy is a good one and will make money. Just might be a longer term then you thought.
I know I have had my finger on the buy button several times and pulled back. I want to get back into the cycle process I was last year where I made 68% on these channel trades.
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi
Posts: 5,093
Threads: 321
Joined: Dec 2004
Yeah I know Im fine long term but I probably should not have done it in retrospect as Im trying to keep cash as we are considering purchasing a new home. So I cant wait too long on it.
Posts: 3,034
Threads: 220
Joined: Jul 2003
The bottom probably depends on the fed as much as anything else. These job numbers were bad enough that more stimulus is back on the table. In that sense they were almost good - the worst scenario is where the jobs numbers aren't healthy enough to juice the economy, but not bad enough to force the fed's hand. We could get a big rebound if Bernanke does something significant. Of course, the reverse is true too - if he does nothing the markets could sell off even more.
One thing I'm pretty certain of is that we won't get is any help from congress. A bad economy and worse jobs numbers are the best way for Romney to win, so there is no way they are going to do anything to improve things and let Obama take the credit. And any further discussion on that topic will be in the Political forum... 
Ex SWG, L2, CoH, Wow, and War
Currently PvPing in the stock market
Posts: 5,093
Threads: 321
Joined: Dec 2004
Well the leader with actual real power, being Bernanke can step in and fire up the helicopter. He can do it easily enough and the Republicans can bitch and moan about it all they like, but can't do anything about it. And since Fed Chair is appointed by the president, maybe Bernanke better get on that if he wants to keep his job.
Posts: 3,034
Threads: 220
Joined: Jul 2003
Looks like tomorrow is going to be a good day, at least for the short term. Spain sorted out (for now), China data not bad (and likely to result in more rate cuts), and things looking kind of positive for the Greek election (thanks to that neo-nazi douchebag). Tomorrow is also the Apple WWDC keynote, so I'm hoping it's a good day all round...
Ex SWG, L2, CoH, Wow, and War
Currently PvPing in the stock market
Posts: 8,501
Threads: 624
Joined: May 2003
Yea,I waited to long for the tna buy. Should be a good week.
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi
Posts: 3,034
Threads: 220
Joined: Jul 2003
Vanraw Wrote:Yea,I waited to long for the tna buy. Should be a good week. Then again...
At least Apple is holding up well. I sold the call I bought on Friday and some of my older calls, though. I figure it's going to sell off on the news regardless of what they trot out today. Was thinking of getting short, but you never know if they will surprise with an iTV announcement (or at least an SDK for writing TV apps)...
Ex SWG, L2, CoH, Wow, and War
Currently PvPing in the stock market
Posts: 8,501
Threads: 624
Joined: May 2003
yea I guess wall street wont be happy until the printing presses start up in earnest.
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi
Posts: 8,501
Threads: 624
Joined: May 2003
Interesting, on trucking indexes showing steady growth.
<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-14/truckers-as-leading-indicator-show-stable-u-s-economic-growth.html">http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-1 ... rowth.html</a><!-- m -->
The only wild card in this economy is the euro.
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi
Posts: 3,034
Threads: 220
Joined: Jul 2003
Tempted to short the market in the morning...after this run, I'm pretty sure there's no way the Fed is going to shower money from the heavens as the markets seem to be counting on....
Ex SWG, L2, CoH, Wow, and War
Currently PvPing in the stock market
Posts: 8,501
Threads: 624
Joined: May 2003
I think we are at a high end of this trading channel too. A little bad news from g20 or feds or jobs or GDP, or you name it, will send the sellers in.
Honestly Ive been sort of stuck in a non-movement phase. Not sure why but haven't been triggering on ideas e lost money. I didn't buy BAC when I thought I should, being nervous about the new stress levels, and I lost a $& to $8 swing. SAme on the TNA when I thought the channel was low. I didn't do anything. Lost a good 20% gain.
Not sure why. Its like the news and the market are not adding up for me. I do think that a TZA might be a good short term point right now.
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi
Posts: 3,034
Threads: 220
Joined: Jul 2003
I bought weekly TNA puts yesterday morning, but sold them in the afternoon for a loss because the market initially seemed to liking the extended Fed twist. Should have saved them for today, would have made out like a champ... :roll:
Ex SWG, L2, CoH, Wow, and War
Currently PvPing in the stock market
Posts: 8,501
Threads: 624
Joined: May 2003
You must believe in the pessimistic ways !!
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi
Posts: 8,501
Threads: 624
Joined: May 2003
I just bought $11 BAC calls for November. Should have did this 2 weeks ago but taking advantage of the dip.
Short term I'm sitting prior to buying TZA or TNA. My gut feeling is the market will drop a little more next week, but it could just as well bounce. I see 2 drivers right now.
1. Jobs Jobs Jobs.... 2 weeks from now will be the June Jobs number and I think its either going to be flat or down. If its down, shit is going to go down.
2. Spain is a pain when it rains in the plains...... News on Spain will push the market either way. From a news perspective it seems wide open. I dpont like that the sky was falling, and the G20 was going to discuss it, and then there wasn't crap out of the g20.
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi
Posts: 3,034
Threads: 220
Joined: Jul 2003
I have BAC Jan 2013 $7.50 calls.
I honestly don't know where the market is going, though. There is some scary shit out there. Either the EU is going to get it's act together and the market will shoot higher, or...things could get very bad. I'll still holding everything (for now).
Ex SWG, L2, CoH, Wow, and War
Currently PvPing in the stock market
Posts: 8,501
Threads: 624
Joined: May 2003
yea, I'm still very heavy cash.
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi
Posts: 5,093
Threads: 321
Joined: Dec 2004
Today seems like a nice selling day. Just sold my TNA for a 15% gain. I need to start unraveling my account unfortunately because we are trying to buy a house.
Posts: 3,034
Threads: 220
Joined: Jul 2003
Yes, days like today show how dangerous it is to go short this market... Usually these sorts of rallies after Europe news tend to fade after a day or two, though, when people realize that it doesn't change anything.
Ex SWG, L2, CoH, Wow, and War
Currently PvPing in the stock market
Posts: 3,034
Threads: 220
Joined: Jul 2003
Getting a bit nasty out there. I've been lightening up over the last couple of weeks - I'm at almost 50% cash now, which I think is the most out of stocks I've ever been...
Ex SWG, L2, CoH, Wow, and War
Currently PvPing in the stock market
Posts: 8,501
Threads: 624
Joined: May 2003
Im mostly still cash too. Even in my main IRA. I do think its going to be time to jump back in. I still have Toyota, Broadsoft (which Im kicking my self for not selling at 40... 22 today), and BAC whic isnt doing great but I think is still a great long.
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi
Posts: 3,034
Threads: 220
Joined: Jul 2003
I sold all my near-term call spreads, so everything I have left is Jan 2013 spreads (albeit 280 individual call/put options split up over 37 different spreads).
I'm still up 69% for the year, but I was up 85% a week ago... If the market (and AAPL in particular) tanks, that could evaporate very quickly. I know I SHOULD sell...
Ex SWG, L2, CoH, Wow, and War
Currently PvPing in the stock market
Posts: 8,501
Threads: 624
Joined: May 2003
I hate to say it, but yes you should. It might not happen, but all bets are that there will be a significant drop between now and end of 3q, before a nice ramp up to the end of the year. At least that is the pattern for the last couple of years.
waiting.....
waiting.....
waiting.....
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi
Posts: 3,034
Threads: 220
Joined: Jul 2003
Bought some TNA calls expiring Friday - hoping for a bounce after three down days. May depend on the numbers my buddies report in a couple of hours.
Oh, and I totally ignored Maul's advice below to sell (in fact I bought more calls last week), so I'll also find out shortly if that was a biiiig mistake...
Ex SWG, L2, CoH, Wow, and War
Currently PvPing in the stock market
|
