Do I Sell?

[Breand]

Today is the first day in months that my TZA holdings broke even. Definitely thinking I should pull the trigger and get out of it. But you think we can go lower? I certainly do, but TZA has felt like a ball and chain on me for months.

[Vanraw]

I am exactly where you are in the thought process and break even state of my SRTY. Been on the wrong end of the channel since I bought it.

I have not sold yet. But Im up 1%. so thinking on it. The question of course is what will happen tomorrow / this week. Here is what Im reading.

1. Fiscal cliff is sighted as reason for sell off. Fear that republicans and democrates relationship will not be any different from the last 2 years. I have to hope thats not true, but from a market perspective its all about perception.

2. Euro trash are acting up again. My gut feeling is the downturn today is more about the Euro then the election.
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3. The Volatility index isnt cimbing at levels that would indicate panic. This sort of defines that the drop is a short term sell off. If so the its a buying op and selling TZA now might be the best bet.
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So...... Whats my prediction for tomorrow and or the rest of the week, along with the rest of the year? I think Im going to sell SRTY today and get out even. I might get back in on shorts or even buy some TNA later this week. For the rest of the year, The fiscal cliff is going to be the big issue. I predict congress will pass something extending the date like 6 months. In the short term we are going to hear one of 2 things. Either the republicans are going to rattle some swordds and tell Obama they are going to be the party of no, (market down) or Obama is going to indicate some sort of a cooperative stance (market go up). Besides that its up to euro.

[Breand]

I thought it was mostly because of Draghi saying Germany is now being affected by the Euro situation.

[Sebrent]

.

[Vanraw]

I thought it was mostly because of Draghi saying Germany is now being affected by the Euro situation.

yea me too.

FYI I did sell all my SRTY / TZA positions for a minor 1.28 % gain. But much better then the double digit loss it could have been.

My gut right now is that we are close to the bottom, unless like /i said above, the republican house comes out with some sort of a "hell no" message on the fiscal cliff issue. So right now I am seriously thinking about a TNA purchase.

[Vanraw]

I did buy some TNA. I really think this is a short drop, and looking for TNA to hit 62ish on the short term.

[Vanraw]

Did you sell? I wish I would have held one more day.....

[Breand]

Yeah I sold today and made a 2% gain off it. If I had waited the day out it could have been close to 5% but I'm happy camper considering how long I've been stuck with it. Gonna hold off on TNA tho.

[Vanraw]

Well my tna buy was a huge mistake.....

[Grieve]

Not necessarily. I think we will see a sharp reversal of these drops soon, especially if the parties can show evidence they are both committed to compromise on the fiscal cliff. Obama is speaking today, let's see what he says.

[Vanraw]

yea Im holding. Its up a bit. But I really thought after the first drop after the election it would have bounced. I'm certainly looking at playing the "cliff" volatility. My take is they will come out and say, "we can work together". and then it will go back and forth until the last minute when they extend the same shit we have now for 3 to 6 months.

Keep in mind this is a lame duck congress. Not that much is changing, but they all seem to vacation for 3 months now.

A couple of things Im looking at beside volatility.

1. Defense / military stocks should be a short play no matter what. Might be too late. Bottom line there is no way we are going to get through this budget process without significant cuts in defense spending.

2. Energy and Financial stocks are going to be bouncing around as people get on stump speeches.

3. Housing plays as tax code restructuring becomes the conversation. If they remove or hint more on the removal of mortgage interest deductions, it will have a direct impact. If they remove the deduction making over 250k, no big deal. If they remove it all for everyone, it will be big drop in home construction, and financials.

[Breand]

I was so tempted to buy CBIS (Cannibas Science!)two days ago when it was about 50 cents and today it is 90 cents. Snikey!

[Grieve]

I bought a bunch of TNA right before the close at $48.33. This selloff has to be overdone. The cliff will be resolved, one way or another. When it does, I see TNA back above $60 or $65.

[Vanraw]

I agree. Just made that bought tna at 54.

I might actually buy alot more.....

[Breand]

Just got in to TNA at 47.39. Pretty large order...we'll be crying or cheering together!

[Grieve]

Yeah, I obviously bought early, another ugly day today (especially for my best buds Apple).

[Breand]

I have a small position in it but SB lost 30% today. That hurt. PGH has been killing me too, I have a few grand in it and it's down 45% since I bought =(

[Vanraw]

I'm litterly all cash except the TNA purchase at 54, which is hurting, but Im not overly worried. I want to buy more, but my gut is telling me to wait.

Also I have a apple buy order in for $300....... sorry Grieve, Im totally kidding but could not resist.

[Vanraw]

I will say this on the market. There is going to be a time here, where a absolute but load of money can be made on this fiscal cliff stuff. I view that it could go 3 ways.

1. They actually submit and approve something by the end of the year..... If so as soon as it looks like something its a buy buy buy moment.

2. They let the cliff fall, and then fix it retroactivly,.... Which shortly after the cliff, is a buy buy buy moment.

3. They whimp out and pass some 3 or 6 month extension of current status, which would suck and have no clear buy buy buy momenet......

[Grieve]

Also I have a apple buy order in for $300....... sorry Grieve, Im totally kidding but could not resist.

You are now dead to me, Maul..

(the way things are going it might get there, though...)

[Breand]

great day for AAPL and TNA!

[Grieve]

Yeah, really hope this can last into December. Depends on whether the fiscal cliff talks remain positive, And maybe what happens in the Middle East.

I've been buying APPL options all the way down (I have around 30 different spreads and outright call positions), so I really am all in on Apple right now...

[Breand]

TNA Up 17.5% since I purchased. Seems like Russell 2000 is generally doing better than the DOW & S&P.

[Vanraw]

Im only up 2.5 %. Bought a little early.

We still have some rock roads, but there seems to be a general feeling that the Dems and Repubs are willing to talk...... So positive. However I think the retoric is still comming.

The best of all situations for TNA right now is if somehow congress and the adminstration came out and said, we have a deal...... The market would go through a rally the likes we havent seen in years.

Of course thats unlikly until the last minute. Also we still have the Greece, Italy, France issues looming.

[Grieve]

Yeah, my TNA is up 12.20% - holding for now. I feel the market could rally big if there is a deal, but I'm worried it's going to be just like all the other times...when it comes down to it, they just can't agree.

Apple is up $80 from it's lows...which is a relief to me and especially to my trading account. Still way off its highs, though...also true of my trading account....

Facebook is on quite a tear as well (I still have some).