What kids want for Christmas

[Grieve]

I love these surveys from Nielsen - I look at them every year, as a way to help with my investing decisions. It lets you cut through the FUD and see what consumers (in this case little consumers) really want.

Some of my takeaways this year:

* Despite the increasing competition, demand for Apple products is up. That makes me comfortable in my Apple bets.

* The interest in the Wii U is way higher than I expected - I thought it was going to crash and burn. Might be time to dip into Nintendo's stock, which has been crushed in the last few years ($76 in 2008 to $15 now!)

* The Microsoft Surface isn't cool and kids don't want it

* Playstation Vita is DOA - kids still want iPod Touches or iPads

* I need to buy more AAPL

[Vanraw]

And Dad says $600! sorry kid, Santa's on a budget.

[Grieve]

Eh, mom and dad will starve themselves before letting their little bundles of joy go without their latest toys...

[Arsilon]

Fixed for you.

Some of my takeaways this year:

* Despite the increasing competition, demand for Apple products is up. That makes me comfortable in my Apple bets.

* The interest in the Wii U is way higher than I expected - I thought it was going to crash and burn. Might be time to dip into Nintendo's stock, which has been crushed in the last few years ($76 in 2008 to $15 now!)

* The Microsoft Surface isn't cool and kids don't want it

* Playstation Vita is DOA - kids still want iPod Touches or iPads

* I need to buy more AAPL


* AND APPLE TV STILL BLOWS MAJOR DONKEY BALLS

[Grieve]

Ha, I'm surprised as many as 4% of kids that age ask for it! It's more a toy for grown ups. We have two already, plus I've bought two more for family, plus I've asked Santa for the 1080P one this year. I love the little buggers. And Apple are selling millions of them, even of they are only a "hobby".

[Snowreap]

I suspect that Microsoft Surface is also a toy for grownups, at least right now.

-ken

[strife]

IPad has name recognition... that is all. If I asked my 7 yr old what a Microsoft Surface, or any other tablet not called an Ipad, he would have no idea what it is... you can ask any non-techy moron what an Iphone is and they can tell you... you ask them what a galaxy S3 is and I would guess most wouldn't know...

I like how you judged that the Surface isn't cool because 6-12 year olds don't want it... In my office, the Surface is going to soon become the next big thing as a laptop replacement once the Win8 pro model comes out. My boss is already talking about transitioning all of us to desktop(at work) + surface as opposed to Laptop only.

[Slamz]

Well, he did say the Surface isn't cool with kids.

Basically anyone with the education level of an elementary school child probably prefers an iPad. No surprise there!

[strife]

Well, he did say the Surface isn't cool with kids.

Basically anyone with the education level of an elementary school child probably prefers an iPad. No surprise there!

Technically he said isn't cool AND kids don't want it

On another note.. the Wii U is probably going to be one of the can't find it toys this Christmas. I've already heard stories from a couple friends who ordered it and were told by who they ordered it from that they have no idea when they are going to get supply.

[Grieve]

I really do think the Surface is going to crash and burn. It reminds me of the RIM Playbook and the HP Touchpad...positive reviews for the hardware, but middling to bad reviews for the software, and (most importantly) very limited app stores. Microsoft obviously had a much bigger marketing budget, and from the blanket coverage we're seeing on TV and online, it's spending every penny. And I expect their 2.0 version to be a lot better. But I don't think it's going to do well at all in the first year. I also think a lot of the devices that get bought will get returned. Windows 8 in general is going to struggle.

The thing Microsoft never solved is software bloat. Compare a 32GB Window Surface to a 32GB iPad. The 32GB Surface actually only has 16GB useable after taking into account the OS, built in app, and recovery tools. The 32GB iPad has 29GB free. That's a huge difference. And this isn't even full Windows, its just Windows RT, the one that won't run regular Windows apps. I'd personally be pretty pissed if I bought a 32GB tablet and then found it was really only half of that.

I'd put the tablet rankings like this (for holiday sales):

Ipad 4 - Best hardware, best design, joint best (arguably) software, best app ecosystem, best performance, good multimedia content, (perceived) poor pricing
Amazon Fire - Decent hardware, poor design, medium software, poor to medium app ecosystem, poor to medium performance, good multimedia, best pricing
Ipad Mini - Decent hardware, best design, joint best (arguably) software, best app ecosystem, very good performance, good multimedia content, (perceived) poor pricing
Google Nexus - Good hardware, good design, joint best (arguably) software, medium app ecosystem (for tablets), good performance, decent multimedia, second best pricing
Microsoft Surface - Very good hardware, very good design, (perceived) bad software, worst app ecosystem (for tablets), good performance, decent multimedia, (perceived) poor pricing
Samsung tablets - Good hardware, medium design, good software, medium app ecosystem (for tablets), decent performance, decent multimedia, medium to poor pricing

[strife]

I completely disagree... I'm leaning that surface edges most of the tablets out of the business market.

the thing that make surface so enticing, is that it's basically a full fledge PC(pro) in tablet form. Once we get our tablets(if we get them at work), I will be able to completely get rid of my laptop and run just a tablet away from the office. That's going to be freaking awesome.

Who cares that it only has 16 GB free space... HD space is cheap and I can plug an external(Using fucking USB) to the surface if I need more space. With cloud, there's no need to waste HD space on media anymore, so really a lack of HD space is a minor thing.

[Slamz]

I also don't think you can overestimate how annoying iTunes is. Even rank and file Apple users complain about it. It's been a thorn in their side for years. I have no idea why they don't work on improving it. It's the most awful thing Apple has done to their users and its use is mandatory.

[Grieve]

Are you talking about iTunes on the PC? You don't need that anymore, you can do everything directly from the device. Syncs, updates, buying stuff...I can't remember the last time I connected a device to my PC or Mac.

Strife, I think the Surface could get some traction in the business market - I was talking more about the consumer market. But even for business, I don't see the RT version doing that well, since it can't run legacy Windows apps. Are you getting the RT or the full Windows one?

Out of curiosity, what apps do you need the Surface to run to replace laptops?

[strife]

Definitely pro for business.. RT isn't much better than what is currently out for business, other than the fact that it fucking takes USB, which has been one of my biggest issues with Apple... they should stop being so fucking hard headed and add USB.

At a very minimum, remote desktop(which I realize you can get on any of the current tablets in some form). But running full fledged Visual Studio, SSMS(not some half assed app), bitlocker etc would be a major upgrade over any tablets right now. The fact that it runs a full version of Windows, in a company that is 100% windows based is also a big deal.

The thing is, in a company like I work for, we try to be consistent across the board. Having to install some random 3rd party app on an Ipad or android to make sure our email is encrypted is a major annoyance. Running full windows on a tablet fixes a lot of those types of issues.

[Grieve]

Yeah, I'd be tempted to a get a Surface Pro if they were cheap enough, but the prices I've heard ($920 for the low end and $1026 for the high end) is just way too high.

And you are planning to use Visual Studio on it? I dunno if I could do that...I hate running it on on smaller screens generally, and that would be REALLY small. I guess it depends what you are doing with it.

[Snowreap]

we're considering getting a Dell XPS 12. it seems like a good way to try out Windows 8 on a tablet-style form factor, while still being able to fall back to regular laptop-style use if any usability problems arise (and by "usability problems" I mostly mean "application compatibility issues").

-ken

[strife]

Yeah, I'd be tempted to a get a Surface Pro if they were cheap enough, but the prices I've heard ($920 for the low end and $1026 for the high end) is just way too high.

And you are planning to use Visual Studio on it? I dunno if I could do that...I hate running it on on smaller screens generally, and that would be REALLY small. I guess it depends what you are doing with it.

I'd have a docking station and it would be connected to my bigger monitors + keyboard & mouse for long use.

$1000 is high for me as a personal consumer, but when you think about buying a laptop in the 1200-1500 range for work use, the $1000 isn't that big of a deal and it's more portable.

[Vanraw]

All the wintel manufactors are all working on the pro versions. Most already have or will soon have touch screen based laptops with swivel like screens. Surface may fail but what Orbison doing is forcing the PC manufactors to realize the laptop biz isn't dead and things like ipads are no where near being productive busines machines.

I thinkbthat even if surface fails it is already a sucess from a OS perspective. Microsoft is interested mostly in making sure it doesn't lose its revenue cash cow.

[Breand]

I just bought 2 Kindle Fires yesterday...They had them on sale for $150. Got one for my kid and my dad. My kid was asking for an iPod which I will never spend the money on, and the Fire does virtually the same stuff for half the price on a bigger screen. Plus Amazon has a much more forgiving return policy. I can't imagine the iPod being able to survive the cheap tablet onslaught.

[Grieve]

It's practically child abuse getting your kid a Kindle instead of the iPod they really wanted!

Looks like Kindle is doing relatively well, but the Nexus and Surface aren't:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazon-...eid=yhoof2

Regarding other tablets, Pacific Crest analysts reduced their shipment forecast for Google Inc.’s Nexus 7 tablet to 4 million units from 5 million for the full year, citing “slower-than-expected demand, a later launch of a low-priced $99 or $129 SKU and our conversations with supply-chain partners.”

The firm also cited “weak” production orders for the Surface tablet from Microsoft Corp. “As such, we believe 4Q12 orders are down another 20% from our last revision of down 14% earlier this quarter,” the firm wrote.

[strife]

I just bought 2 Kindle Fires yesterday...They had them on sale for $150. Got one for my kid and my dad. My kid was asking for an iPod which I will never spend the money on, and the Fire does virtually the same stuff for half the price on a bigger screen. Plus Amazon has a much more forgiving return policy. I can't imagine the iPod being able to survive the cheap tablet onslaught.

Holy fuck, have IPod touches ALWAYS been $300?

I've heard good things about the Fire and $150 for a tablet is hard to beat... even if it is a bastardized OS.

[Vanraw]

Yea the reality is today's tablets are good for browsing, streaming some audio and video and playing some remedial board like games. Dont need a lot of power for that. Kindle is a good price / product for that functionality. I was a early adopter and spent way to much for my Samsung Galaxy tab 10.1, but at the time it was the only guy in town with 4G and that was a critical requirement for me.

Im happy with it, but iots more power then I need.

[Jakensama]

Spending more than $200 on an oversized phone is a waste of money.

[Zirak]

Spending more than $200 on an oversized phone is a waste of money.

I'm with Jake on this one.

[Grieve]

Things keep looking worse for the Surface. First Microsoft's orders for the RT were cut in half due to slow sales, then the entry level Pro model was priced at over a grand (with the keyboard, without office), and now it turns out the pro only has four hours of battery life. Back to the drawing board, Microsoft.

http://bgr.com/2012/11/29/microsoft-surf...tery-life/