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I made my killing on the transportation stocks over the winter and now I am getting ready to sell everything.
As usual this time of year I have no idea what to buy since trans stock sucks from now until summer.
I did better then usual this year. YRC almost doubled in price which is very rare in Trans stocks.
Now what? I feel room temperture about everything now. I am not a good spring investor. Typically I make my 20% in the winter and lose 5% to 10% of that come spring. This year I would have made 70% ish in the winter and I don't want to have my typical bad spring.
What is new out there?
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Well there's always cash if you don't want to risk your gains.  The market is up a lot. Difficult to tell how he much more upside there is in the short term.
Although I'm sticking with Dow 15k this year, Maul!
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If the last couple years trend is a gauge, we will soon dip into an era of flatness an non movement for a big chunk of the summer. I think we might see 15k on Dow, which In my opinion is an opportunity to short the market or get into cash and wait for pull backs to buy at. I really think the market is way ahead of the economy. We are a 5 years since the last melt down.
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
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![[Image: maull2.gif]](http://bengtel.com/maull2.gif)
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I've got a co-worker who keeps talking up GTLS. He is saying they are positioned to make money in all aspects of the natural gas chain. It had a quick run recently so I'd wait for a sell off before going in.
I'm all in sell mode now because I have to raise money for our home purchase. Speaking of transportation, I bought SB years ago at a way high price, but I've noticed it's been picking up some good gains recently. Might get to a point where I can finally break even on it.
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I sold everything off and it couldn't have been a better time. Everything is sitting as cash.
I can't stand that year minimum to avoid taxes. Who the hell came up with that dumb idea? I always forget about that rule when I purchase trans stocks in the fall and sell in the late winter. I pisses me off every year.
I checked out that GTLS and it has been pretty even since 2011. It would have been nice to have bought it in 2009.
It really bugs me that I am not earning anything on my cash but I suppose I have to keep perspective that THIS year I will not lose 5% to 10% this spring.
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If you don't know what to buy - buy houses! as our fiend Breand did, you'll never lose with real estate.
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what in the Samhill! They're on to me!
BTW, with my home sale in June I will be losing 75k + 15k realtor/taxes. lol
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Well, you are a fiend.
Skelas
Burnt to a crisp.
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So I made more this year then I ever have and made a nice little nest egg. I put the money in cash and was just looking at some nice investments.
I was just telling my Vanna about some stocks I was getting ready to jump on when she said sorry I already have other plans for the cash.
I was like uh?
I was informed we are paying off debt instead of investing. That will teach me to create cash!
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Paying off debt??? That's downright un-American!
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Probably lucky you didn't put the cash in stocks anytime recently, after the brutal sell off the last couple of days.
Although I'm actually up today, purely thanks to my TBT (short treasury) Jan '14 $80 calls (up 256% since I bought them May 9th!)
My Apple, on the other hand...
Selloff seems a bit overdone. I bought some SPY $160.50 calls expiring tomorrow right before trading ending. Worth a roll of the dice...
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I think its Tna time. There really isn't any awful news out there, and this little correction is very healthy.
The biggest fear on the fed pull back of QE, In my opinion, is a negative run on commodities and the bursting of a significant bond bubble. Specific as bond rates increase, people are going to dumping the cheap treasuries they own now.
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi
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I'm sure the housing industry is sticking their middle finger at Bernanke though. Mortgage Rates have basically gone up a full percent in the past month on this news. It may stall the housing recovery if it keeps rising. I am currently freaking out about our move because our seller is being a gigantic asshole and I might lose my 3.375% if it gets past Aug 3rd and we don't close.
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Put into some perspective though. 3.75% is the lowest its been since... well a long time. Even 4.5-5% is cheaper than my government backed student loan years ago.
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Yeah, 30 years were from 5-6.5% for a long time. In the 90s they got up to 9%. I'd still say anything under 5% is unusually good.
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Vanraw Wrote:I think its Tna time. There really isn't any awful news out there, and this little correction is very healthy. I'm in TNA, and happy about it, but while considering whether to add more, I compared the 5Y chart of TNA and SPY. Holy crap, what the hell with TNA?
Why in July 2011 did it drop from $44.72 to $18.12 in a blink while SPY did absolutely nothing? Kind of worrying. May need to look around for another leveraged ETF that isn't quite so wild.
On the other hand, up 350% in 5 years vs about 20% for SPY is nothing to sniff at...
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=tna#s...undefined;
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Stock split? These ETFs seem to do splits and combines fairly frequently.
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Part of the difference I've seen is that its based on the Russell 2k, which is much more about small business. It doesn't track DOW or S&P.
But also I get the sense that this triple leverage stuff doesn't always follow the mathematical plan....
If you look at the <!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1372881600000&chddm=1326272&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NYSEARCA:IWM&ntsp=0&ei=djPUUdDwM4jAlgPMgQE">https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1& ... 4jAlgPMgQE</a><!-- m -->
Which is a non-leveraged Russell 2000 Index ETF, you see the same patterns. The TNA being leveraged is much more.
Remember that these guys running the ETF's are making money and overhead. When I have tried to investigate this in the past, I see a "leak" of value over time. ie, share goes up a dollar, triple leveraged goes up 2.9, shares go down a dollar, Triple leverage does down 3.1.
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
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Vllad Wrote:I made my killing on the transportation stocks over the winter and now I am getting ready to sell everything.
As usual this time of year I have no idea what to buy since trans stock sucks from now until summer.
I did better then usual this year. YRC almost doubled in price which is very rare in Trans stocks.
Now what? I feel room temperture about everything now. I am not a good spring investor. Typically I make my 20% in the winter and lose 5% to 10% of that come spring. This year I would have made 70% ish in the winter and I don't want to have my typical bad spring.
What is new out there?
Vllad, what is your time frame for looking back into Transports?
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi
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Vanraw Wrote:Vllad Wrote:I made my killing on the transportation stocks over the winter and now I am getting ready to sell everything.
As usual this time of year I have no idea what to buy since trans stock sucks from now until summer.
I did better then usual this year. YRC almost doubled in price which is very rare in Trans stocks.
Now what? I feel room temperture about everything now. I am not a good spring investor. Typically I make my 20% in the winter and lose 5% to 10% of that come spring. This year I would have made 70% ish in the winter and I don't want to have my typical bad spring.
What is new out there?
Vllad, what is your time frame for looking back into Transports?
I am starting to look to buy now. I want to get some in before the end of September.
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I don't know if this is what youre talking about Vllad, but I have owned SB forever now and for some reason it has skyrocketed in the past couple months, I'm finally at a place where I can sell it without a loss:
<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:SB&ei=8BkuUoiXL-aL0QGRew">http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:SB ... L-aL0QGRew</a><!-- m -->
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I can't confirm or deny anything, but I may know a certain New York City ship broker who was allegedly in talks with SB to sell several of their ships, which would be a cash windfall for them. May have something to do with their upswing.
Liquidate that shit and never, ever ever touch a greek shipowner stock again.
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I'm not even sure why I bought, it was so long ago. Maybe it was considered a high dividend stock. It's been horrible for years now.
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