Earnings reports for smartphone/tablet related companies

[Grieve]

So far...uniformly crappy.

Samsung missed estimates and had lower S4 sales than expected, and has fallen about 16% in the last month
HTC missed estimates, with profit down 83% YoY. Stock is down 38% in the last month
Blackberry fell 24% in a day after missing earnings by a mile on June 28th
Nokia missed on revenue and handsets yesterday
Google just missed slightly on the topline and BIG (by $1.21) on bottom line, and is down 4% after hours
Microsoft also just missed bigtime, not least due to a $900m charge for the failure of the Surface, and is down 6.4% after hours

Apple reports on Tuesday - I wonder if it can break the trend? Unlike all those other companies, most of which have been on a tear, it's already beaten down. Plus Verizon reported today, and stated that iPhone made up over 50% of its sales last quarter, despite the launch of the S4 and no new hardware from Apple this year. iPhone sales there were up over 40% YoY, a lot higher than analysts were expecting. Guess I'll hold on to my stock a bit longer...

I bought some VZ on the dip today.

[strife]

I'm surprised at Samsung... the S4 is a pretty pimp phone. Me and the wife just picked it up and it's a huge improvement over the last phone's we got...

Apple will probably be releasing their next version of phone relatively soon, so they should get a nice little jump.

I'm wondering if so many of the phone companies are doing bad because they are to a point to where the phones aren't going to get that much better so people just keep the phones they currently have. T-mobile, AT&T & Verizon all launched(or are in the process) of launching plans to make upgrading phones on a more regular basis easier/cheaper to do, although it's still too expensive for anyone that doesn't just have to have the latest and greatest phones as they are released.

[Slamz]

Yeah, I may upgrade to an S4 soon but really there's nothing wrong with my Thunderbolt.

I think HTC screwed the pooch by going with these designs that incorporate the SD card and battery, which I don't like -- I want them to be replaceable/removable. Samsung also blows them out of the water with advertising.

[strife]

Yea, non upgradable/replaceable battery/SD cards is a design flaw IMO. Another good thing about the S4 is it's relatively easy to find accessories for it. Not close to iphones, but much better than your standard android.

[Grieve]

I'm wondering if so many of the phone companies are doing bad because they are to a point to where the phones aren't going to get that much better so people just keep the phones they currently have.

The theory is that we've hit "smartphone saturation" in the West, so people are upgrading existing smartphones, but new buyers aren't there. The only growth (feature phone users switching to smartphones) is in the developing world, where they will only buy very cheap phones (which is why low-end Android phones are doing so well).

I'm not sure I buy it - apparently there are still 41% of adult Americans on feature phones, for example. I think, as usual, analysts were just way over-optimistic, setting up companies to "fail", and making the shareholders suffer.

[Grieve]

Well I was right - everyone else missed, and Apple beat. Up over 5% after hours, but that might not hold up tomorrow. iPhones beat by a mile (31.2 million vs 26.5 expected), but everything else (iPads, macs, iPods) was low. Should change with the upcoming product refresh...

[Vanraw]

Apple beat 2 quarters of lowered expectations.

I am glad they had better earnings this round. Still holding some and would like to end on a positive.....

[Breand]

I need it at $525 just to break even. And that's with 5 shares I bought a long time ago at $375

[Vanraw]

Well I was right - everyone else missed, and Apple beat. Up over 5% after hours, but that might not hold up tomorrow. iPhones beat by a mile (31.2 million vs 26.5 expected), but everything else (iPads, macs, iPods) was low. Should change with the upcoming product refresh...

The problem Apple, cough and Grieve cough.... Is they cant tell the toast is burning.



<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/parmyolson/2013/07/26/samsung-reaches-biggest-smartphone-lead-over-apple-since-first-iphone-launched-in-2007/">http://www.forbes.com/sites/parmyolson/ ... d-in-2007/</a><!-- m -->

New industry figures from Strategy Analytics show that Samsung shipped 2.4 times more smartphones worldwide than Apple in the second quarter, up from 1.9 times in the first quarter of 2013 and the second quarter last year, and from 1.3 times in the first quarter of 2012. It also represents Samsung’s biggest ever lead over Apple on smartphone shipments since the first iPhone launched in early 2007.

<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE96P05F20130726?irpc=932">http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSB ... 6?irpc=932</a><!-- m -->

Apple Inc this week said its revenue in Greater China, which also includes Hong Kong and Taiwan, slumped 43 percent to $4.65 billion from the previous quarter. That was also 14 percent lower from the year-ago quarter. Sales were weighed down by a sharp drop in revenues from Hong Kong. "It's not totally clear why that occurred," Cook said on a conference call with analysts.

Samsung, with a longer history in China, now has three times the number of retail stores as Apple, and has been more aggressive in courting consumers and creating partnerships with phone operators

[Grieve]

Samsung is definitely doing very well. That doesn't mean Apple can't keep doing very well also. Plus the majority of Samsung's "smartphone" sales are actually very low cost phones in emerging markets with tiny profit margins. In the US, Galaxy phones have about the same ASP as iPhones, but worldwide Samsung smartphone ASPs are under $200, compared to around $580 for the iPhone

And yes, sales in China are lower (probably not least due to a recent anti-Apple campaign by the government there), but they are up 400% in India, 60% in Japan, 50% in the UK, 50% in the US, etc. The ancient iPhone 5, 4S, and 4 outsold all the brand spanking new Android phones (including the S4) at Verizon and AT&T, and despite no new iPhone this year, sales were still up 20% YoY.

Like I said, Wall Street and the media have decided to hate Apple for now, so every story you see is going to accentuate the negative.

I did sell a bunch of my Apple after the earnings bump, just to diversify a bit (ironically I bought the equally lightening-rod stock Tesla), but I totally believe that as we get into the fall and new products are announced, the stock will get back above $500, then $600, and then onwards to $1000, baby!

[strife]

the stock will get back above $500, then $600, and then onwards to $1000, baby!

You should bet on it... I know someone who may take you up on it...

[Vanraw]

Like I said, Wall Street and the media have decided to hate Apple for now, so every story you see is going to accentuate the negative.

I did sell a bunch of my Apple after the earnings bump, just to diversify a bit (ironically I bought the equally lightening-rod stock Tesla), but I totally believe that as we get into the fall and new products are announced, the stock will get back above $500, then $600, and then onwards to $1000, baby!

Ah its that liberal biased media........

I own some apple and would love if it went up. But at this point they don't seem to be doing anything innovated. I keep hearing... Wait till x quarter when they introduce new products..... Years now......

At this point I'm even. If the stock hits 500 I'm out.....

[Jakensama]

the stock will get back above $500, then $600, and then onwards to $1000, baby!

You should bet on it... I know someone who may take you up on it...

We already have a bet. If Google hits $1000 before Apple, I get his house.

[Grieve]

We already have a bet. If Google hits $1000 before Apple, I get his house.

Must...short...more...Google...

[Slamz]

<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20130807005280/en/Apple-Cedes-Market-Share-Smartphone-Operating-System">http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/2 ... ing-System</a><!-- m -->

   

iOS, we hardly knew ye.

[Grieve]

A minor aberration, that will soon be rectified when the iPhone 5S, iPhone 5C, and iOS 7 conquer the world!

And anyway, 20% YoY gain is nothing to sniff at when Symbian was down -92%...

[Jakensama]

<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-09/apple-loses-china-smartphone-market-share-to-cheaper-models-1-.html">http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-0 ... ls-1-.html</a><!-- m -->

Hows that whole "We are going to take over the land of the cheap knockoff" delusion going?

[Grieve]

Yep, I read that one myself. We'll see what happens when the new models come out. I'm not sure there is any benefit to trying to compete with Chinese companies who are probably making 5% margins (if that) on these phone. Better to stick with the high end.

The middle class in China is expanding rapidly. I think, like Americans and Europeans, there will be plenty of nouveau riche in China looking to ostentatiously flaunt premium products, including iPhones.

[Grieve]

http://www.asymco.com/2013/08/08/android...r-decline/

[Jakensama]

From your own link:

Even though share stopped growing about a year ago, Android continued to gain users as overall smartphone consumption increased. The last few months however have shown a slowing of new smartphone users and therefore we have this first instance of Android appearing to lose usage.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkLuncXw-P4[/youtube]

[Grieve]

It seems pretty clear that a lot of first-time smartphone buyers get an Android due to pricing and sledgehammer marketing, realize it's not a premium experience, and upgrade to an iPhone next time round. Which is why Android is plateauing in the US - not many first time buyers left. While the rest of the world still has a long way to get to that point.

AllthingsD just said that the new iphone(s) are being announced Sept 10th, by the way. Hopefully the stock will start trending higher in anticipation.

[Slamz]

The reason Android took off to begin with is due to Apple's aggressive stance on proprietary technology. It's not your phone, it's Apple's phone and for a hefty fee they will let you borrow it. I've long said that the iPhone's success was kinda like MySpace: flimsy and based more on marketing than technology and could be taken away by the first competitor to breach them on "coolness".

Now that Apple is losing its cool factor, there's not much propping them up.

Android is a much less stable platform (as much the fault of carriers piling shit on our phones than any fault of Android, I believe) but a lot of things Apple does makes it hard for people to love them long term.

[Grieve]

Android offers more flexibility, but at what cost?

One is that you are opening yourself up to malware. Sure, tech-savvy people like those on this board can probably avoid the worse of it, but do you think the average person knows what the hell they are agreeing to when the app they are installing lists all the stuff it needs access to?

http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news...rend-micro

It's like Windows and Mac all over again. Who here hasn't been plagued with viruses or other malware on their PCs? Since I switched to Mac, not one single problem...and I don't even have anti-virus installed. I'll trade a little less freedom for not wasting hours (or more) trying to recover my system (if not reinstalling the OS completely). Or having to pay for anti-malware software (which kind of negates the value of a free OS...)

But the bigger one to me is that you are selling your soul to Google. They are the typical snake oil salesman - "here, have this free operating system...we just want to enrich your life...we don't need anything in return". When really they want to get as much of your information as possible so they can target you with a deluge of ads.

Was just reading this recently, about how the "awesome" Google Maps that saved all iOS users from Apple Maps, has now quietly snuck ads into the app:

http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9...s_more_ads

YouTube is another example. When I use YouTube on my AppleTV, or the previously default YouTube app on iOS, there are no ads. Zero. It's a great experience. Then I use it on my computer, where the ads are like a slap in the face from what I'm used to.

I know we've had this discussion before, but I'm happy to pay more for an ad-free existence. Give me the BBC or HBO over the traditional networks anytime. I don't want me (or my kids) to be told what we need to buy.

[Jakensama]

Never had a problem with viruses on Android, nor has anyone I have ever known who uses it. No problems on windows either really in my couple decades of looking at it, but I don't spend all day looking at porn either so maybe thats a problem. Its popularity, when you hold the vast majority of market share most people are going to target you.. So I suppose that if you have a serious problem with always installing malware it might be worth it to install some niche sub-par OS to protect you from yourself.

I'd rather have a map program that gets me to where I actually want to go with unobtrusive ads than the pile of shit that was Apple's excuse for a map program. None of googles ads are remotely obtrusive, so it is an extrodinarily small price to pay for a superior OS and not be locked into only using what you are told to use. I'll take my playstation emulator on my phone rather than paying $15 for a 15 year old Final Fantasy game like I would have to on apple.

Also, if small out of the way ads annoy you that much you are always free to download whatever apps you want that don't have them, or use an adblocker.. choice, its a beautiful thing.

[strife]

I just gave into the whole google tracking thing... it's pretty cool being able to go look at my dashboard and see where I was on X date at Y time.