Recession coming in the next 12 months

[Vanraw]

Interesting read on consumer spending and a possible recession in the next 12 months.

<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://etfdailynews.com/2014/04/29/u-s-economy-to-enter-recession-in-next-12-months/">http://etfdailynews.com/2014/04/29/u-s- ... 12-months/</a><!-- m -->

[Grieve]

Interesting read, but it really don't get it. Unemployment has been steadily falling, which should mean more people are employed and pumping money into the economy. I don't get why spending would be less now than a couple of years back...

The stock market argument makes sense, though. Seeing your stocks going up can make people think they are richer, and vice versa when they go down. Let's see if the market continues to drop...

[Vanraw]

But the jobs are lower pay. At least that is every statistic I've seen.

Bottom line is consumer spending is dropping.

Funny thing is raising minimum wage would improve the situation... Not to dip into political thread. But itself about disposable income at the masses.

[Zirak]

My understanding is that unemployment is falling not because a lot of people are going back to work but because the labor participation rate is dropping. Our current labor participation rate is really low.

[Breand]

My understanding is that unemployment is falling not because a lot of people are going back to work but because the labor participation rate is dropping. Our current labor participation rate is really low.

But that might also be the new norm. The Baby Boomers basically are the only ones left with a retirement that is actually manageable with pensions, and they are dropping out of the work force early in droves. They can't be bothered anymore and I don't blame them. I think once they clear out and become official retirement age they won't be messing with those numbers as much.

I have a hope where I can imagine a good 10 years where Gen X and Y have a good run as all the management level Baby Boomers finally get out of the market and there is a big void to be filled where we can get all the high paying jobs for a bit before the wave of Millennials take over. Our generation has been given the short end of the stick at every pass being sandwiched in between two large population groups.

[TinStar]

My understanding is that unemployment is falling not because a lot of people are going back to work but because the labor participation rate is dropping. Our current labor participation rate is really low.

But that might also be the new norm. The Baby Boomers basically are the only ones left with a retirement that is actually manageable with pensions, and they are dropping out of the work force early in droves. They can't be bothered anymore and I don't blame them. I think once they clear out and become official retirement age they won't be messing with those numbers as much.

I have a hope where I can imagine a good 10 years where Gen X and Y have a good run as all the management level Baby Boomers finally get out of the market and there is a big void to be filled where we can get all the high paying jobs for a bit before the wave of Millennials take over. Our generation has been given the short end of the stick at every pass being sandwiched in between two large population groups.

So are you saying that the labor participation numbers are only being affected negatively by those who are just retiring instead of looking for work? I guess I'm cynical because I just assumed that this number would also include those that are not of retirement age as well..

[Jakensama]

They don't count for all of it, but count for some, and as Breand pointed out they will continue to count for a pretty steady decline of people leaving the workforce over the next several years.. The other good point is that birth rates have consistently been going down so there will be less people clamoring for our jobs 15-20 years down the road. At least from personal experience I know my Dad (and a lot of his similarly aged folk) is retiring early this year at 61.

[Vanraw]

Back to the aspect of a coming recession. Statistically we are due.

I think it will happen, and it will be a small one. The important think, is that if you think it will happen, you can profit from it.

[TinStar]

Back to the aspect of a coming recession. Statistically we are due.

I think it will happen, and it will be a small one. The important think, is that if you think it will happen, you can profit from it.

That's the American spirit! Go you!