Mote Stock Stuff

[grizzle]

So, even though I don't think the market has quite hit bottom yet, what stocks do you guys see as a) good long term stocks, and b) good quick turn around play/profit stocks?

[Singularity]

It depends on how risky you want to get. I take plenty of risk with stock, but then again I don't invest with my life savings. I'm simply a casual investor with disposable income who isn't afraid to lose money.

I have some pretty good dividend-paying stock that I hold onto, because that's a nice thing to have in a bear market like this. With the stock prices so low, you can load up and have some nice payments coming your way every three or four months. For example, one stock in my portfolio is a company called Nam Tai Electronics (NTE). It's a company that makes electronics, obviously, but because of the global recession, it's been hammered. The stock currently sits att $4.00/share. However, the company is very, very cash rich with almost zero debt, and has more than enough liquidity to ride out this recession. It pays .88 a share, which is ridiculous. If you bought 100 shares at $4.00/share, you will have spent $400, and made $88 in dividend payments for 2009. Crazy!

But that's sort of a risky stock. There are plenty of dividend stocks whose prices are depressed, so you can get some awesome deals right now. General Electric (GE) and Pfizer (PFE) are a few that I own because they are so cheap, and they pay dividends, too, which is nice!

If you want something long term (at least a year) and you are willing to REALLY risk your money, invest in stem cell companies - specifically, those who are going to dabble in embryonic stem cells. Obama and company are about to lift the bans, so you will see companies increase in value as more and more discoveries and breakthroughs are made. I invested in a company called American Cell Technology Company (ACTC) back when it was at $0.01/share, and sold a lot of it when it reached $0.21/share. I took that money and invested in a few other stem cell research companies. Again, that is risky as hell, but big risk = big reward (or big loss).

If you really want some quick money, it seems like you are better off shorting the market rather than going long. Some experts think we are currently testing the bottom, but I think we'll probably break through and go lower. Either way, we'll be in this recession for a while yet, so i'm leaving my cash in dividend-payers for the most part, with some in stem cells.

So in a nutshell, here is me.

a) long term - dividend paying stocks from solid companies, buying them now while they are so low in price. I don't care if they lower the dividend, it will increase eventually once the markets turn around (GE and PFE, for example). I also have a few stem cell companies.

b) short term - dividend paying stocks from non-blue chips (like NTE). The stock value may not increase anytime soon, but when it does I can sell for a profit. In the meantime i'll rake in the dividend. I also short the market, but again, VERY risky.

[Jakensama]

I propose we all take an 'investment' trip to Vegas.. No riskier than the market right now, but far more strippers.

[grizzle]

Great info, CK - thanks!

Is there a way to tell which Stem stocks are good for short term? As in, are there certain things I should be looking for in the stocks?


And ya, Jaken, an investment in Vegas sounds like a perfect plan!

[Dustie]

Griz,

If you become interested in becoming a long term investor, let me know. I have a book list for anyone who's interested. I know that options and short term trading seem like fun, but the truth is that most people lose money going that route.

[grizzle]

Griz,

If you become interested in becoming a long term investor, let me know. I have a book list for anyone who's interested. I know that options and short term trading seem like fun, but the truth is that most people lose money going that route.

Yes, I am definitely interested in long term investing. Any and all book lists, info, and advice you are willing to share would be greatly appreciated. Thanks Dustie!

[grizzle]

Also, same for good 401k investment strats. I've recently started doing some research in that area and have a pretty good balance throughout my portfolio, but any advanced advice for this type of economy, for balanced to growth, would also be appreciated.

(Currently at 42% large cap, 6% mid cap, 12% small cap, and 40% bonds)

[Breand]

I just opened my 1st day trading account last week and felt like a genius when my 1st purchase RGLD popped up 10% two days later =) The only two stocks I have right now are RGLD and PGH. Take a good look at PGH, it's pretty crazy..good recommendation by 1000xZero. It's not gonna get much lower and they pay out 18% dividends. Easy money in the bank, at least until 2011 when new Canadian laws kick in.

[Breand]

Also, same for good 401k investment strats. I've recently started doing some research in that area and have a pretty good balance throughout my portfolio, but any advanced advice for this type of economy, for balanced to growth, would also be appreciated.

(Currently at 42% large cap, 6% mid cap, 12% small cap, and 40% bonds)

As of right now, I moved the investments WITHIN my account into 60% bonds and 40% stocks. I did that in November so I havent had the same shock of losses as everyone else, but it's still not pretty. I wouldnt recommend that at this stage however.

I am 100% in BUYING stocks now 75% large, 25% small, too cheap too pass up. I would be buying as much stock funds right now as possible, leave bonds alone for the next year or so.

[grizzle]

What are people's thoughts on AIG with it getting down to $0.60?

[Breand]

if it gets nationalized youll lose all your money in it.

[Singularity]

What are people's thoughts on AIG with it getting down to $0.60?

AIG is a total crapshoot with the odds stacked against the investor. It's selling off chunks of its business to repay the debt it owes, including the actual buildings. There are other, stronger, insurance companies that are poised to take over once the markets turn around, and to be honest I think one of these will end up purchasing what's left of AIG once things pick up.

The stock is $.60 a share for a reason. The purpose of investing for me is to get a return on some cash. Yeah i'll take a risk, but if I want to gamble i'll go to Vegas, and buying AIG is a straight-up gamble at this point.

You thinking of buying some Griz, and taking a gamble? Or are you just curious?

[grizzle]

What are people's thoughts on AIG with it getting down to $0.60?

AIG is a total crapshoot with the odds stacked against the investor. It's selling off chunks of its business to repay the debt it owes, including the actual buildings. There are other, stronger, insurance companies that are poised to take over once the markets turn around, and to be honest I think one of these will end up purchasing what's left of AIG once things pick up.

The stock is $.60 a share for a reason. The purpose of investing for me is to get a return on some cash. Yeah i'll take a risk, but if I want to gamble i'll go to Vegas, and buying AIG is a straight-up gamble at this point.

You thinking of buying some Griz, and taking a gamble? Or are you just curious?

I bought a small amount awhile back, somewhere around $2. Not enough to care about if I lose it. And I had similar thoughts on not buying more, but was curious what others thought about it with the position it is in.

[amins]

Griz,

If it's money you think you've already lost, you could contact your broker and see if Call Options (Covered Call or Renting your stock) are an option for you, maybe get your cost per dollar down a bit to something reasonable, if not put you back into the positive..

However, you have to be happy with the possibility of selling the stock for the price you're obligated to fulfill: .60 or whatever the option is set at.

Someone correct me if i'm getting the terminology wrong.

[Vanraw]

Yea the thing about AIG and other seriously damaged companies is about its customers confidence. If they lose customer confidence, they are dead.

So ask your self a question. Would you buy an insurance policy from AIG? Would you give them money for investments, or trust management? I know I wouldn't.

[Maren]

I got killed in AIG - I lost like 95% on it. I still have the stock (it crashed to fast to reasonably get out for me, so now its worth it to me to see if it goes up any)

As for other stocks, take a look at some of the energy stocks. I havalot of money invested in Valero (VLO). They are the largest refiner in the US and are pretty sound financially (at least the last time I looked) and have a decent dividend.

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. is about to bring a 100k barrel/day refinery online, however it is about 50% over budget and none of the contractor liens or litigation have made it to the press (they will probably settle it through arbitration behind the scenes, yet some of the numbers are substantial). I am not sure whether I would buy or short sell it. CNRL as a producer of oil bases alot of profits on Oil prices. Many of us in the industry think that the oil will probably stabilize at around $60/barrel within the next couple of years (especially once we claw our way out of the recession).

[amins]

Concrete Equities.

This is one of my staple investments, which provide 1 year or 5 year terms.

1 year terms bring in about 18% ROI.

5 year terms (Not always available) provide 18% a year with a 4% dividend. The only stipulation is you have to invest a minimum of 10k.

Most of the 'projects' are real estate development outside of the US (Mexico, Brazil, etc). However, the good (5 year) ones are land holdings, typically.

[Breand]

PGH bottomed out today on news that they were lowering their monthly dividend, but hell, it's still a great buy even with the change.

I bought a bunch of HIMX today too. They had a 22.4% dividend yield and 27% ROI the past 2 years... the stock is mad cheap:

<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.fool.com/investing/high-growth/2009/01/26/5-star-stocks-poised-to-pop-himax-technologies.aspx">http://www.fool.com/investing/high-grow ... ogies.aspx</a><!-- m -->

[Dustie]

Griz,

If you become interested in becoming a long term investor, let me know. I have a book list for anyone who's interested. I know that options and short term trading seem like fun, but the truth is that most people lose money going that route.

Yes, I am definitely interested in long term investing. Any and all book lists, info, and advice you are willing to share would be greatly appreciated. Thanks Dustie!

Here is what I did to aquaint myself with long term investing:
1. Took Macro and Micro economics
2. Took Accounting I and II
3. Took business statistics and business finance
4. Read the following:
-Graham: The Intelligent Investor
-Security Analysis (over my head at first but less so each time I went back to it)
-Phisher: Common Stocks Uncommon Profits
-Buffestology and a host of other Buffet books
-Annual reports for any company your considering investing in
-Trade publications (you want to pick industry leaders that aren't over priced)

Here is what I read to aquaint myself with trading and techinical analysis:
Pretty much the strait line of books and newpapers from the Investors Business Daily guy (William O'Neil).

I have come to the conclusion that the long term Buffet style investor is usually going to beat the trader. Even if you don't have time to read and do all the things I listed above in the "long term" column, you can still beat 62% of fund managers by simply investing in a low cost S&P 500 index fund (i.e. Vangaurd).

Some may question me on my analysis, but I have only three data points so far which I have judged myself by:
1. Beat the S&P by 11% 2008 (My performance was only -26%)
2. I beat my professional trader friend by 7% (he's an IDB guy)
3. I beat another trader/short termer options guy who's on these forums (I won't list his performance against mine for 2008 unless he says its ok).

[Breand]

For shits and giggles, my 1st foray into day trading and here's my purchases. I am VERY long term on PGH and NEM, and moderate on HIMX.

PGH - Canadian Energy Trust
NEM - 2nd largest gold mining company in the world. They are 6 months away from pulling gold out of a HUGE Australian mine.
HIMX - Korean chip maker with tons of cash on hand and high earnings ratio.

2/23/2009 BUY ORDER POSTING NEM 11.0000 -$483.28
2/20/2009 BUY ORDER POSTING HIMX 150.0000 -$254.15
2/20/2009 BUY ORDER POSTING PGH 85.0000 -$592.20

I dont plan on touching any of these for a long time, except MAYBE HIMX. I feel like PGH right now is a huge bargain for long term.

Im done buying for at least a couple months.

$1400 originally in account - today's value $1291. (taking a beating on PGH)

I have a small amount of RGLD in a different trading account, was kinda just a "dipping my toes in the water" type of thing not gonna use it for this example.

[Grieve]

I'll out myself as the other "trader/short termer options guy who's on these forums" Dustie mentioned. I got slammed last year. However, I'd argue that most of the problem was that I WASN'T daytrading most of the year. With all the crazy stuff going on in my life (getting divorced, getting married, inheriting two step kids, moving house twice, changing from a 5 mile commute to a 60 mile one), I sat back and let my stocks and funds plummet with the market.

Following Breand's example, I'll post my short-term trades (good and bad) so far this year:

12/30/08 Buy 23 GLD Executed @ $85.64
01/15/09 Sell 23 GLD Executed @ $79.98 ($150 loss)
(horrible trade, GLD did nothing but go up after I sold it)

01/21/09 Buy 4 TBT Mar 40 Calls Executed @ $3.9
01/23/09 Sell 4 TBT Mar 40 Calls Executed @ $6.4 ($968 gain)
(my favourite type of trade, quick 61% profit in 2 days. TBT ran up more after this, though...)

02/05/09 Buy 15 BAC Feb 6 Calls Executed @ $0.65
02/10/09 Sell 5 BAC Feb 6 Calls Executed @ $1.26
02/09/09 Sell 5 BAC Feb 6 Calls Executed @ $1.31
02/10/09 Sell 5 BAC Feb 6 Calls Executed @ $0.79 ($632 gain)
(one of those "if only I had sold them all at $1.31". Actually went a lot higher than that)

02/05/09 Buy 40 UYG Feb 4 Calls Executed @ $0.23
02/10/09 Sell 20 UYG Feb 4 Calls Executed @ $0.25
02/22/09 20 UYG Feb 4 Calls Expired ($491 loss)
(Urgh)

02/12/09 Buy 20 GLD Executed @ $93.33
02/20/09 Sell 10 GLD Executed @ $98.13 ($33 gain)
(still holding the rest, sold for funds to buy WFC calls)

02/20/09 Buy 5 WFC Mar 12 Calls Executed @ $1.35
02/23/09 Sell 4 WFC Mar 12 Calls Executed @ $2.7 ($511 gain)
(bought these late on Friday, sold 4 early on Monday for 100% gain, letting last option run)

[amins]

Griz,

If you become interested in becoming a long term investor, let me know.

Here is what I read to aquaint myself with trading and techinical analysis:

Pretty much the strait line of books and newpapers from the Investors Business Daily guy (William O'Neil).

Great post Dustie!


Here are a couple of places I began my financial wealth management education: trading, strategies, and technical analysis.

1) <!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="https://www.csi.ca/student/en_ca/home.xhtml">https://www.csi.ca/student/en_ca/home.xhtml</a><!-- m -->

- It's self-paced (1 year) and continuing education. I don't think I'll ever get through it all, but its a fun 'quest' regardless.

2) <!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.infinitewealthacademy.com/">http://www.infinitewealthacademy.com/</a><!-- m -->

- Great source of financial strategies for financial freedom. He's Canadian but also does webinars.

3) <!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.thefinancialpuzzle.com/homepage/index.html">http://www.thefinancialpuzzle.com/homepage/index.html</a><!-- m -->

- Webinar's teaching Technical Analysis. Does a nice job pulling things together and also provides a bundle of trading strategies.

4) <!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="https://www.optionsxpress.ca/index.aspx">https://www.optionsxpress.ca/index.aspx</a><!-- m -->

- Any financial tool really (Schawb, etc.). Just go through all the free info, programs, and tools available as a client/subscriber.


I think the most important thing all of this has taught me is that there's no better investment for my money than educating myself in the management of it.

On a different note, anyone know a broker/service (for a margin account) with access to the Frankfurt exchange and also trades ipos/otc/pinks? I use Wolverton Securities for my Canadian investments. They're great.

Anyhow, just thought I'd add to Dustie's great post.

[Dustie]

Anyhow, just thought I'd add to Dustie's great post.

Gee thanks

[Vanraw]

This is one of the better referances for today's market.

<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_Is_Painless">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_Is_Painless</a><!-- m -->

[grizzle]

Thank you, gents, for the excellent info. I'll get to reading!