Bill Counts continue to decline

[Vllad]

It is still to early to speculate until January but it looks like this peak wasn't horrible. We are still behind 02/03 but in general the following happened.

16% increase in bill count year over year.
20% increase in tonnage year over year.


The bad news is carriers are making less money per transaction, down 1.5%. In general that is just a result of a highly competitive market.

I think it is pretty safe to say that people did spend this fall.


Vllad

[Vanraw]

Yea, I think people are spending again. Its interesting that we can / do have a recovery with 10% unemployment holding steady.

For my core business (Telecommunications), We are seeing tremendous growth in traffic but its movement to value so revenue is down. Thats to be expected. But that fact that traffic volumes are continueing to increase says core businesses are doing ok. How is it that everyone is ok with millions more unemployed? Could it be that allot of companies were fat.

[Snowreap]

it's a question of focus, I think. when times are bad, companies focus on efficiency: how do we reduce costs as much as possible, while hindering our existing business as little as possible?

when times are good, the focus shifts to opportunity: how do we take maximum advantage of new opportunities, while hindering our existing business as little as possible?

-ken

[Hoofhurr]

I'm really curious about this ratio. What fraction of the population does it take to adequately service the needs of the whole population? Or put a different way, one american citizen can keep how many other citizens fed, housed, and safe?

Actually. I'd love to see how many jobs are required to fill each of the the levels on Maslow's Pyramid. The unemployment probably came from somewhere near the top of the pyramid.



I attribute the bottom rung to healthcare industry, food industry, and real estate. The second rung to fire, police, military. The third rung to government, local and federal, and probably communication services.

[Dustie]

I'm really curious about this ratio. What fraction of the population does it take to adequately service the needs of the whole population? Or put a different way, one american citizen can keep how many other citizens fed, housed, and safe?

Actually. I'd love to see how many jobs are required to fill each of the the levels on Maslow's Pyramid. The unemployment probably came from somewhere near the top of the pyramid.



I attribute the bottom rung to healthcare industry, food industry, and real estate. The second rung to fire, police, military. The third rung to government, local and federal, and probably communication services.

I can offer you one data point I just heard from H.W. Brands' "Masters of American Enterprise" audio course. He says that the percentage of the population employed in agriculture (and feeding the rest of the population) has gone from 80% in the late 18th and early 19th century to 5% in the 21st century (up to today). That reduced demand for labor in agricultural areas essentially allowed us to have the nice big industrial revolution that we had.

/off topic
For those who were pondering whether quality of life has really improved in this country over the last 200 years, I offer the above as evidence that it has.

[Hoofhurr]

As our manufacturing base goes the way of our 1800s agricultural sector where are people supposed to get jobs? This is what I'm curious about. I'm really curious if it is theoretically likely that the job/population equilibrium will ever exist at a 1:1 ratio. Someone must have done these calculations for their PhD in economics.

Also, I heard FedEx had a record month recently? Anyone confirm?

[Dustie]

As our manufacturing base goes the way of our 1800s agricultural sector where are people supposed to get jobs? This is what I'm curious about.

I'm sure a lot of agricultural workers asked the same question. And I'm sure that the same process will continue to take place. New industries and technologies will create new jobs and new opporunity. It's hard to see it when you're in it, but this is what's happened before and this is what will continue to happen. If you think about it, its more radical to say "that won't happen again the way it has for the last 200 years .. this time, its different."

Sure, one of these years (out of the next few hundred) I'll be wrong, but I doubt it will be this year.

As for a more specific answer, I don't know. You can play fill in the blank though (using the topcis coverered in "Masters of Enterprise" as a template):

Sailboats
Steam ships
Rail and Train
Automobile
Airplane
Rockets and space ships
Next:_______

Telegraph
Telephone
Radio
TV and Motion picture
Microprocessors
Internet
Next:________

Agricultrual Boom
Manufacturing Boom
Transportation Boom
Commnication Boom
Next:_________

/apologize I won't talk about anything other then bill counts after this.

/back on topic
I'm glad to hear the bill count info Vllad