Apple

[Breand]

I think everyone except Grieve has way too much faith in the consumer. If you are Apple and continue to tell people it costs $100 more for 16GB of flash storage than 32GB and they BUY IT, you have a customer base that can be sold on just about anything. The new iPhones and iPads will sell very well, and I'm expecting quite soon to finally break even on the stock so I can get out of it. =) They are set up quite nicely this holiday season.

I'd argue that Grieve has too much faith in the consumer... to accept mediocrity, and buy apple's shit.

No, my point is you guys think consumers are smarter than they actually are and will somehow realize they are buying shit. But they are paying $100 for 16GB of flash that the market has set to be around $10, so that is a sign of the type of people you are dealing with.

[strife]

I think everyone except Grieve has way too much faith in the consumer. If you are Apple and continue to tell people it costs $100 more for 16GB of flash storage than 32GB and they BUY IT, you have a customer base that can be sold on just about anything. The new iPhones and iPads will sell very well, and I'm expecting quite soon to finally break even on the stock so I can get out of it. =) They are set up quite nicely this holiday season.

I'd argue that Grieve has too much faith in the consumer... to accept mediocrity, and buy apple's shit.

No, my point is you guys think consumers are smarter than they actually are and will somehow realize they are buying shit. But they are paying $100 for 16GB of flash that the market has set to be around $10, so that is a sign of the type of people you are dealing with.

I don't think anyone believes that consumers are smarter than they actually are. I think they will just continue to keep buying shit. Apple bets on it as well, it's why they haven't added removable storage which is almost standard on android devices(or at least most I've looked at).

[Grieve]

I will grant you that Apple overchanges for memory bumps, although only really for the jump from 16 to 32GB. That’s $100 for 16GB…but the jump from 64GB to 128GB is also $100…for 64GB! Samsung charges $50 for a 16GB increase, which equates to $200 for 64GB. So does Google and Amazon. So it’s really only the jump from 16 to 32 that’s a problem.

As for microSD cards, that goes back to Steve Jobs – he always fought Woz on restricting the number of external ports, since they ruin the “beauty” of the device. You can assume that they did it for greed, but I doubt that's the case. Plus external memory is way slower and more likely to fail.

Anyway, everything is going to the cloud these days.

[strife]

Yes, it's more expensive than the competition, but it's including world-class software for free (the equivalent of Microsoft bundling the full MS Office suite).

I don't think the iWork software is an equivalent of Microsoft Office... maybe the equivalent of Google docs. Do you understand how powerful office actually is? Maybe it's the equivalent for your every day user who doesn't do shit other than a budget and some word processing.. but some of the shit built into office is amazing. Office is expensive, but that's because it's the best product in it's category by far, and it's also by far the most used.

Power Query for example

[strife]

I will grant you that Apple overchanges for memory bumps, although only really for the jump from 16 to 32GB. That’s $100 for 16GB…but the jump from 64GB to 128GB is also $100…for 64GB! Samsung charges $50 for a 16GB increase, which equates to $200 for 64GB. So does Google and Amazon. So it’s really only the jump from 16 to 32 that’s a problem.

As for microSD cards, that goes back to Steve Jobs – he always fought Woz on restricting the number of external ports, since they ruin the “beauty” of the device. You can assume that they did it for greed, but I doubt that's the case. Plus external memory is way slower and more likely to fail.

Anyway, everything is going to the cloud these days.

External storage is faster than the cloud, and it works when you don't have an internet connection... so your external vs internal argument is invalidated by your cloud argument

I personally don't stick anything on the cloud that I care about... I don't trust anyone for that.

[Zirak]

I personally don't stick anything on the cloud that I care about... I don't trust anyone for that.

I personally don't stick anything at all on the cloud if I can at all avoid it. If storing it on a local drive is not an option then I don't need it.

[Breand]

Icahn helping drive up the price today...I'm about 3% away from break even point.

[Grieve]

I don't think the iWork software is an equivalent of Microsoft Office... maybe the equivalent of Google docs. Do you understand how powerful office actually is?

Yes, I understand it - I've written code that plugs into some advanced Office functionality.

However...you are talking about 0.01% of people who leverage that stuff. Particularly home users. Even in the office, most people use it for extremely basic stuff. iWork is actually more useful to the average user, since it's easier to use. And Keynote, Apple's PowerPoint equivalent, is widely considered the best presentation software out there.

Plus you get a bunch of terrific apps that Office doesn't include, iPhoto, iMovie, and Garage Band. Getting them for free is a huge value. We use iMovie for the family all the time.

[Grieve]

Icahn helping drive up the price today...I'm about 3% away from break even point.

Monday after hours is earnings - that will make or break the current rally. Current quarter probably won't be anything to write home about, but the guidance for the current holiday quarter is what everyone will be looking at. If they guide to less than $55m the stock will probably fall.

[Breand]

Icahn helping drive up the price today...I'm about 3% away from break even point.

Monday after hours is earnings - that will make or break the current rally. Current quarter probably won't be anything to write home about, but the guidance for the current holiday quarter is what everyone will be looking at. If they guide to less than $55m the stock will probably fall.

I feel like they should beat estimates...if Microsoft is up on earnings, Apple has to be, heh.

[Grieve]

I feel like they should beat estimates...if Microsoft is up on earnings, Apple has to be, heh.

Well they did beat, but of course since this is Apple that means a sell-off.

Earnings were actually strong - nice beat on earnings and rev, and they guided up on revs for Q1 (55-58b, vs 55/7b estimate). I'm guessing it's selling off because the Q1 gross margin guide was lower than some hoped - 36.5-37.5%. That's flat from this quarter (37%), and less than the 37.9% that analysts were expecting. But...those analysts probably weren't modeling the fact Apple are now giving away the OS and a bunch of software completely free. Software has very very high margins compared to hardware...

I think the stock will recover over the next few days, but we'll see. High revenue should trump lower margins. Hell, look at Amazon - every quarter they report higher revs but negative margins (i.e. they lose money), and the stock rockets ever upwards...

[Breand]

yeah I just don't get it. A strong quarter for products that everyone knew were getting refreshed and they still bought tons of it regardless. This stock seems so undervalued to me.

[Grieve]

I think there is a good chance they will blow past guidance in the holiday quarter...assuming they can build enough 5S and retina iPads minis. Next catalyst will be how lines are during the iPad release, but the stock might be in limbo until Q1 earnings in January (unless they announce a TV product before then).

[Grieve]

Stock is soaring now - the sellers should have waited for the gross margin explanation on the call. I should have bought more when it was down at $510 a few minutes ago...

[Breand]

Today is the first day in about a year that my AAPL is finally at the break even point. At this point I'll let it ride. I think it's becoming apparent that Samsung isn't keeping pace in sales.

[Grieve]

Yeah, up 41% over the last 5 months - pretty nice comeback, despite all the naysayers...without mentioning any names... It's even up for the year, although well below the S&P.

I think this quarter is going to be a blowout. Every big store reporting on Thanksgiving sales called out the iPad. And just look at this info graphic about Target sales:



Top 3 sellers (comprising 18% total), and Apple was 5 of the top 9 sales. Meanwhile Foxconn is apparently churning out half a million iPhone 5S models a day.

So hopefully the stock will keep rising into January. After that, the analysts are going to get back to talking about "challenges" over the rest of the year, as sales fall off after the holidays... Unless of course we hear something solid about an iWatch or iTV, or a 5" iPhone 6...

[Jakensama]

Shocking, the top 5 products on that list are all overpriced garbage sold to credulous consumers based on ad effectiveness (except those awesome beats headphones)

[Grieve]

Okay, unless you were being sarcastic (which of course you never are), you really ruined your argument with that final comment. I forget the actual number, but I remember reading about the profit margins on those headphones, and they are WAY higher than Apple's on the iPad. And talk about sales based on a name and marketing dollars...

[Jakensama]

Yes that was a joke, beats headphones are up there with monster cables and the iPad mini as most blatently ridiculous cash grabs in my memory.

[Vanraw]

Yeah, up 41% over the last 5 months - pretty nice comeback,
.

Seriously? You just randomly choose your 5 month period? Easy to choose the low of a sell off historically and call it. Might as well say its down from 702 on September 19th 2012. Or how about 1 full year when the stock was 586 on Dec 3?

Or how about on August 16th when you posted here that you wanted to buy more because it was going to 1000. On August 16 AAPL was 636. How does that buy look today at look with todays 556?

How about your post on September 14th 2012 when the stock was at 691..... Just keeping you honest here man.

Okay, I know you guys are not Apple fans (except Breand), but I'll sell my book one more time.

Despite the stock hitting new highs every day, I don't think it's too late to get in. Not even close. The iPhone 5 preorders sold out in one hour - it took 22 hours for that to happen with the 4S, and that was a blockbuster seller. Next two earnings reports from Apple are going be beyond huge.

If you don't want to risk too much money, I recommend call spreads. You can get them very cheaply, and make a killing if the stock takes off. Or if you want to really roll the dice, buy a Jan 2013 $960 call for $1.06 ($106). If AAPL is $1000 on that date your $106 will have ballooned to at least $4000. Another option - $895 call for $263. AAPL at $1000 would pay out $10,500...

(naturally I take no responsibly for any losses if AAPL drops to $100 )

By the way the Jan 18th AAPL stock was ay 500, and the 960 calls would have been zero. Grant it would have only been a loss of 106, but still.

My take on Apple hasn't changed, is that the numbers are impressive, but it still hasn't shown me anything innovated from a business or product perspective that makes its products anything except a commodity. This is the problem with apple. The reason the multiples are not there is people do not believe in a sustained growth level. Not to say they don't make a good profit.

They are becoming Microslop. A company with a great product but revenue based on updates to the product, not new growth. At least not at percentage levels that excite.

Don't get me wrong, I've made money on Apple. And I will again. Buying on the dips and selling when it hits my targets. If the and when the stock hits 600 I may buy some puts.

[Grieve]

But...it IS going to $1000.

And yes, those were bad calls, but I specifically called out buying cheap out-of-the-money calls for a hundred bucks or two as a "roll the dice" bet. Of course, I didn't follow my own advice, and instead bought much more pricey calls which expired worthless. :roll: But I'm all for full disclosure - I'm going to post just how horribly I did in 2013 at the end of the year...

[Jakensama]

You did worse than just losing your house to me?

[Grieve]

Pfffttt, that's small change in comparison.

[Vanraw]

But...it IS going to $1000.

And yes, those were bad calls, but I specifically called out buying cheap out-of-the-money calls for a hundred bucks or two as a "roll the dice" bet. Of course, I didn't follow my own advice, and instead bought much more pricey calls which expired worthless. :roll: But I'm all for full disclosure - I'm going to post just how horribly I did in 2013 at the end of the year...

Hey, Sorry, I was drinking and got all aggressive . My only point is that this stock isn't going to go up on a hope and a prayer. Yes it will move around 5 or 10 percent, but they have to come up with something else. Look at amazon, look at Google, hell even look at microslops attempt to diversify. Apple is all talk right now, resting on nothing but upgrades to a cyclical product.

I want them to do something.

[Vanraw]

What a new year with out a little apple bash.

New law suit pending against apple for blatantly stealing design idea's.