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Vllad, or others in transportation know! I bought Kansas City Southern KSU, a couple months ago at 29. Its in the 35 range now which was my original sell target. Historically this thing was at 50. Part of me wants to just trigger now and take the gain, but was wondering what you thought the transportation view looked like now? Still dismal??
I'm thinking this might have some upside to it, but evertime I say that I end up wishing I would have sold 
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Unless the carrier has trouble or sucks you should hold on to it until some time through August/October.
There largest revenue numbers will be reported then so stock should peak.
Vllad
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Great advice so far fats. KSU up above 37 now.
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Unless there stock peaks at its highest historical levels hang on until the end of the summer quarter. While you may not gain its highest peak of the year it is the safest approach.
If by June it reaches historcal levels dump it then.
That means some growth or idea's from the board pushed the stock beyond reality. By the time peak comes and the new idea's or growth fails below expectation stock will fall.
Vllad
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FYI I'm still holding this and it just hit $42, and I'm now 43.5% up. I do think that these transport stocks are leading indicators of the economy.
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Nice trade!
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Vanraw Wrote:FYI I'm still holding this and it just hit $42, and I'm now 43.5% up. I do think that these transport stocks are leading indicators of the economy.
Transportation companies are the perfect barometer of the economy. They will tell you 6 months in advance when it is going bad and 6 months in advance if things are going well.
You need to start considering dropping it.
Our peak revenues are now. In a great year it will run through November and then start to curtain downward. January and February should be at minimum half of the revenue that October is.
In a great year December will be solid and November will be strong to go along with an always strong October. In a great year you may get one more solid quarter of this stock. You might actually get to the $50 that was your goal.
I am just not convinced this is a great year. Since this is the best year we have had in the last 3 years people will over state the quality of this year. Don't listen to them. If it weren't for the previous two years this year would not look as good.
If you are feeling lucky the stock will peak after the final quarter revenue reports. After that it will decline until March or April.
If I were you I would dump it sometime in November once I got a feel on how good November was doing. In average or bad years your October price is probably your peak.
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Thanks for the insight Vllad. Im really looking at selling it. I tend to hold on to stocks with great gains until they lose the gains...... And then sell, grumbling that I should have.....
On your comment though, I understand the aspect of seasonal peaks and drops, but I dont really see that reflected in transport stock prices. Meaning that quarterly earning estimates take into account seasonal down turns???
Part of me wants to hold this until $50ish.
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Vanraw,
Think of it this way. If you sell now, you have just made 43.5% gain.
If it goes up any higher you are not gaining that much more.
And of course if it starts to drop you are losing some of that gain.
Its all a matter of chance, nobody knows what the stock will do...unless of course it is controlled.
You already have a HUGE gain. So I would say a good chance is to sell.
Ultimately it is your choice. I am just throwing in my opinion because of your previous post.
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Vanraw Wrote:On your comment though, I understand the aspect of seasonal peaks and drops, but I dont really see that reflected in transport stock prices. Meaning that quarterly earning estimates take into account seasonal down turns???
Part of me wants to hold this until $50ish.
Quarterly statements or the premise of the statements can really impact stock price for transportation companies.
For example; a transporation companies success is driven by revenue not invention or products like other industries. Ones faith in the success of a carrier can only be translated at wall street by revenue and market share. Therefore it is subject to wider swings in price based on those revenues.
Lets say for example your price is being driven by the hope that your carrier is expected to make large gains in market share. It may prove that they have utterly failed to reach those expectations. We will know that for sure in January.
If the carrier has to make adjustments in December for large drops in revenue that will get out as well and therefore drop the stock price.
What I am saying is even if the carrier is doing well these kinds of drops are going to happen naturally. That means in a nut shell I am pretty confident that it will not be to long before your price drops and will remain on the low until mid year 2011.
If you hang onto the stock much beyond the end of this quarter you are going to be hanging on to it until next year.
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So I sold this at 42 and am happy. Checked it today and its 44..... Based on my luck, it will be 285 in 12 months.
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Vanraw Wrote:So I sold this at 42 and am happy. Checked it today and its 44..... Based on my luck, it will be 285 in 12 months.
If it makes you feel any better, I bought PIR at 0.64 a share and sold it a long time ago for a 225% gain. Today PIR is 8.54. I should be ecstatic about the 225% but it still pisses me off how much more I could have made. =)
I even went in and bought it again at 6.21 so I'm up 37%.
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Vanraw Wrote:So I sold this at 42 and am happy. Checked it today and its 44..... Based on my luck, it will be 285 in 12 months.
So does this mean you're tending back toward a buy and hold strategy!??
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Dustie Wrote:Vanraw Wrote:So I sold this at 42 and am happy. Checked it today and its 44..... Based on my luck, it will be 285 in 12 months.
So does this mean you're tending back toward a buy and hold strategy!??
No I still thing the long position is for the individual investor is a gambling crap shoot st the mercy of the market players. This is how it has been now for over 15 years. The market does to represent real value.
I will however say that I am very long on investments with my corporation in 401k, and those investments have done very well. They are however investments with funds that the normal Joe cant get to. Basically the market makers themselves. My personal investment strat is to look for deals that I think are going to increase at least 20% in the short term (6 months to a year) jump in, get the profit and jump out before it goes down.
However number 2. If I find a good stock that has upward and or stable possibilities and a strong dividend, I will and do go long. BP might be one of those, once they solidify what the new dividend will be.
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I would say the only investment strategy that is bad right now is "medium term" holds. I think in the short term stocks will still go up as it adjusts for the inflation Bernanke is about to inject into the system, but that we will have a double dip recession coming on in a year or two. So don't plan on buying anything you want to sell in a couple years.
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Breand Wrote:I would say the only investment strategy that is bad right now is "medium term" holds. I think in the short term stocks will still go up as it adjusts for the inflation Bernanke is about to inject into the system, but that we will have a double dip recession coming on in a year or two. So don't plan on buying anything you want to sell in a couple years.
Hey, if you wait long enough every prediction of doom and glum will come true. Eventually.
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I would continue to watch the KSU stock so you know what you saved yourself.
Now that you have a better idea of how transportation stocks work you can now think about buying more of then in the spring.
By the way I am not allowed to buy transportation stocks so I get to live through you!
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They have done me very well. That was my main drive too, was to identify the first steps of recovery. The interesting thing here will be understanding the next. I'm thinking energy then mfg and retail / services.
If / when the economy picks up then Oil is going to go through yet another emotional climb. The last huge oli climb showed massive profits of Exon and BP type companies.
If energy goes through the roof, I would take that as a hit to profit in transportation industry. Meaning while demand rises the cost of filling that demand will rise as well, all the while with competition holding prices down.
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Vanraw Wrote:If energy goes through the roof, I would take that as a hit to profit in transportation industry. Meaning while demand rises the cost of filling that demand will rise as well, all the while with competition holding prices down.
We pass those charges directly on to the consumers. We don't allow them to impact our revenues.
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Vanraw Wrote:So I sold this at 42 and am happy. Checked it today and its 44..... Based on my luck, it will be 285 in 12 months.
Closed at 49.29 today 
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Vanraw Wrote:Vanraw Wrote:So I sold this at 42 and am happy. Checked it today and its 44..... Based on my luck, it will be 285 in 12 months.
Closed at 49.29 today
Don't look again until February. You know you would have held this until then typically.
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Maull,
What is the price on this stock now?
Vllad
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Closed at 51.07, but prior to the Japan driven market slump it was between 54 and 53.
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I'm still really happy with the buy and sell though, and appreciated your input. As they say, its a fools game to try and pick the perfect peaks and vally's.
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Wish I would have held onto KSU. It hit 68 today..... /facepalm.
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