BP a buy??

[Vanraw]

Anyone think BP will return to $60? I hate the spill, but Im sill looking at investing. Should bought at 30 when I first thought about it. Still 41 seems cheap. Depending on the fines.

[Breand]

I wish I had bought it too but summer months always sap my checkbook and I didn't really have the extra cash for it. It's still a buy. Any costs involved with the spill will be paid for within a year's worth of profits. (they made 6 billion last quarter). I wish I read The Big Short a couple months ago, as I wouldve bought a ton of LEAPs (now I know that they exist) on BP. What's the chance of BP going to $50 or $60 in the next two years? Highly likely.

Honestly Im not sure I will ever buy straight stocks again after that book. It's all about the "shenanigan products." I'm just not sure what I'll have access to buy as a schmuck day-trader.

[Diggles]

I wish I had bought it too but summer months always sap my checkbook and I didn't really have the extra cash for it. It's still a buy. Any costs involved with the spill will be paid for within a year's worth of profits. (they made 6 billion last quarter). I wish I read The Big Short a couple months ago, as I wouldve bought a ton of LEAPs (now I know that they exist) on BP. What's the chance of BP going to $50 or $60 in the next two years? Highly likely.

Honestly Im not sure I will ever buy straight stocks again after that book. It's all about the "shenanigan products." I'm just not sure what I'll have access to buy as a schmuck day-trader.

ya, paying for the spill doesnt stop lawsuits though. they'll prob spend another years worth of profit paying for legal defense.

I'm still amazed that people were getting gas at BP stations, sucker born every minute though.

[Zirak]

Why wouldn't people buy gas from BP? Now, I've never been a customer of BP because around here gas at their stations is always more expensive than at the Shell stations. But, if you were a BP customer, why stop just because of the spill?

Oil spills are a common occurrence around the world. But, completely apart from that, the US government forces companies to drill out in deep water where the task is greatly complicated by the depth they are forced to drill. Now, I don't mean to say that BP shares no blame here but the US government shares an equal or larger share of the blame for stupid regulations and restrictions imposed by liberal politicians. And, of course, the spill was made worse by our current administration hamstringing efforts at containment. There was no reason the oil should have ever reached shore but this administration was slow to respond and turned away foreign assistance and refused to use all the resources that our own country had.

Had I been a BP customer I would not have stopped because of the spill.

[Jakensama]

Not to mention BP stations are franchises and boycotting pop redneck who runs his little country gas station isn't really sticking it to BP...

[Diggles]

Why wouldn't people buy gas from BP? Now, I've never been a customer of BP because around here gas at their stations is always more expensive than at the Shell stations. But, if you were a BP customer, why stop just because of the spill?

Wow, I guess you dont understand how rushed and shoddy their operation in that well was then. Its called corporate accountability.

I guess you dont understand that the corporation takes revenue from the franchise there chief.

[Zirak]

Wow, I guess you dont understand how rushed and shoddy their operation in that well was then. Its called corporate accountability.

I don't delude myself into thinking that practices on their rigs are significantly different from anyone elses. Note that I did say that I do not consider BP to be blameless but I also do not join in the dogpile on BP crowd that fails to look at the others who need to be held accountable. After all, there is a Federal Regulatory group that is supposed to see to it that there are no shoddy operations out there.

[Diggles]

Wow, I guess you dont understand how rushed and shoddy their operation in that well was then. Its called corporate accountability.

I don't delude myself into thinking that practices on their rigs are significantly different from anyone elses. Note that I did say that I do not consider BP to be blameless but I also do not join in the dogpile on BP crowd that fails to look at the others who need to be held accountable. After all, there is a Federal Regulatory group that is supposed to see to it that there are no shoddy operations out there.

Yep, however BP's is the one that failed and caused the largest natural disaster in US history. You can bet I'm going to boycott them, and show other companies if you fuck up on safety its going to mean I dont do business with your company. When lots of people do this together it makes and effect and other companies take notice.

I dont know what fantasy land you live in that you just let companies shit on America and the environment and get away with it. I suppose you're the kind of person that doesnt think drunk driving isnt a big deal either. Oh they didnt mean to crash into the car full of innocent people and kill them all, it was just 'an accident'.

As Judge Judy would say, it is entirely 100% BP's fault.

They are the ones that hired the company to make the rig.
They are the ones responsible for supervising the rig.
They are the ones responsible for going against the recommended plans.

[Zirak]

They are the ones that hired the company to make the rig.
They are the ones responsible for supervising the rig.
They are the ones responsible for going against the recommended plans.

Actually, the rig was built for R&B Falcon who were acquired by Transocean prior to completion of the rig who then leased it to BP. And when it comes to safety, BP's safety record has been steadily improving for the last 10 years to the extent that, in a stroke of admitted irony, officials were on board the rig on the day of the disaster to celebrate 7 years without a lost time accident. That's actually quite a phenomenal feat.

And before you go talking about the largest natural disaster in US history and beating up BP for it let's understand that it would have been no natural disaster at all if the Obama administration had not hindered efforts to contain the spill. This oil was a threat to nothing as long as it remained in the Gulf. Oil from this spill should never have reached the shore and the US government is the only party to blame for it having done so.

[Vllad]

Yep, however BP's is the one that failed and caused the largest natural disaster in US history.

Umm, I don't think so. That spill didn't leak any more oil into the ocean then natural leaks do. I am not even sure you can constitute it a disaster. While you can certainly call it "man made" it certainly doesn't qualify as a disaster in its true form.

A disaster is something that is unusual or not natural. i.g., See Websters; a calamitous event, esp. one occurring suddenly and causing great loss or hardship, such as a flood or airplane crash.

This has happened before and will happen again. However the media blow out over this thing is amazing. When it happened in 1969 in California it was a blip in the media compared to this gulf thing. The one difference is in 69 it wasn't a disaster. Harmful to the enviorment? Yes. Bad for tourism? It didn't stop me from surfing. A Disaster? No frigging way.

As Judge Judy would say, it is entirely 100% BP's fault.

They are the ones that hired the company to make the rig.
They are the ones responsible for supervising the rig.
They are the ones responsible for going against the recommended plans.

Judge Judy is a moron.

No one will know for sure until some one can prove negligence. Not all of those three statements above are completely accurate.

This is not the same a drunk driving. In fact it is nothing like drunk driving.

We may very well find out any number things have happened. Before jumping to conclusions I would recommend waiting to find out the facts before making general statements.

BP could prove to be negligent or the drilling company and any number of inspectors may be to blame. It may very well turn out to be an accident. The courts will decide on the facts. I don't care who they are I can guarentee you that you will see zero facts in the media. It is all speculation.

I find it amazing some of the shit people will believe.


Vllad

[Breand]

Gas stations are independently owned. By boycotting BP gas stations, you are just boycotting the poor schmuck who had the bad luck of picking BP as his gasoline provider whenever he did. Sure he can switch over to another company, but that costs a lot of money too. And these are mostly small business owners who are actually supplying jobs to Americans.

To add insult to injury, BP gas station owners had to PAY franchising rights to display the BP logos everywhere. That's an additional cost for the benefit of branding. That's why when you drive thru poor areas, you see all these Mom and Pop gas stations that can't be bothered with the branding, or can't afford it. I worked as a mechanic assistant one summer bck in college for a mom and Pop shop. They bought Texaco gasoline, but weren't branded. So all these poor bastards paid extra for the high quality "image" of BP. :roll:

This is has gone all political tho, go whine about BP in the political forum. I just want to make money off their public perception vs. reality.

[Diggles]

Wow Vllad, you are seriously out there these days. You should really seek help now.

Webster Online Dictionary
Disaster
An adverse or unfortunate event, esp. a sudden and extraordinary misfortune; a calamity; a serious mishap.
<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.webster-dictionary.net/d.aspx?w=disaster">http://www.webster-dictionary.net/d.aspx?w=disaster</a><!-- m -->

Natural
Existing in nature or created by the forces of nature, in contrast to production by man; not made, manufactured, or processed by humans; as, a natural ruby; a natural bridge; natural fibers; a deposit of natural calcium sulfate. Opposed to artificial, man-made, manufactured, processed and synthetic.
<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.webster-dictionary.net/d.aspx?w=natural">http://www.webster-dictionary.net/d.aspx?w=natural</a><!-- m -->

Oil exists in nature. An oil spill does qualify as 'natural disaster' as opposed to a purely man made disaster like pollution, nuclear fallout, space trash, etc.


Using your logic I can hire a hitman to kill someone, because I didnt do it...it was a contractor of mine.

BP is 100% responsible for the spill, no if ands or buts.
Their contractor
Their rig
Their policy
Their plans
Their failure
Their mess
Their responsiblity

Judge Judy is possibly the best common sense no bullshit judge in America. Yes her show is entertainment and holds no legal weight, but shes got more legal experience & common sense than you could ever hope for. If you think she is a moron, you are clearly an Ignoramus.

[Slamz]

You seem awfully riled up about this. Did your fishing business get impacting that badly? Got a big oil slick on you when you went surfing? I'm not quite sure where this big concern over oil and the environment came from since I've not known you to be this passionate about it in the past.


Everyone I've talked to seems to think this "disaster" is a non-event. The Texas shrimp boat captain I know says the only impact has been that demand has gone down because people are afraid the shrimp is contaminated but he's seen no problems with his catches. No die offs. No hauling in oil polluted nets. People I know who have gone to Florida for vacation have come back and said the beaches were great and the water seemed fine.

You get some pictures on the intertubes of indeterminate amounts of oil washing up in indeterminate places and suddenly it's a disaster of epic proportions and gross negligence is the only explanation?

I have BP gas in my car right now. It was the nearest gas station when I wanted to fill up.

You might as well refuse to buy any cargo shipped by train next time there's a train wreck that creates a nasty chemical spill. Or I just saw on the news that some cargo ship out of India got rammed and is listing and leaking fuel into the sea. Maybe you should refuse to buy anything that has come by ship, to punish those reckless, greedy shippers.

Accidents happen. Stuff blows up. Get a helmet. I'd like to see evidence that this was negligence before I get riled up about it. If we agree to get Vllad that help you think he so desperately needs, will you agree to put your tinfoil hat back on?


(Incidentally, "natural disaster" generally means it's natural in the sense that it occurred in nature, without any input or influence from man, not natural in the sense that the disaster involved elements of nature which were unleashed by man. Earthquakes are natural disasters. Oil rigs that explode, sink into the ocean and spew oil for 6 months would be better called a "man-made disaster". If you're comparing natural disasters, then the 1994 California earthquake was worse than this by any measurement I can think of. For man-made disasters, it depends on how you're measuring it. In terms of cleanup costs, it's apparently still well under the cost of that tanker that split in half off of Spain.)

[Uncle Shags]

I hope they tank.

Haven't you seen the reports on the number of BP violations compared to other oil companies?
<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bp-has-been-fined-by-osha-760-times-has-an-awful-track-record-for-safety-2010-6">http://www.businessinsider.com/bp-has-b ... ety-2010-6</a><!-- m -->

Or how about the doctored photos designed to make themselves look competent?
<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/21/AR2010072105833.html">http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 05833.html</a><!-- m -->

Or their whole twisted, dishonest PR campaign?

How about Captain Awesome, aka "I'd like my life back" Tony Hayward?

Or good ole “Louisiana isn’t the only place that has shrimp” Randy Prescott?

This whole debacle has got me wondering if you could create a "company killer" stock. Kind of like the Goldman guy who invested in the housing market crash, or investment in Greece's failure. If there was a stock out there that I could invest in to help make BP go bankrupt, I'd jump on it.

[Breand]

You guys are making me wish I had about 30k worth of BP LEAPs right about now.

[Vanraw]

Haven't you seen the reports on the number of BP violations compared to other oil companies?
<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bp-has-been-fined-by-osha-760-times-has-an-awful-track-record-for-safety-2010-6">http://www.businessinsider.com/bp-has-b ... ety-2010-6</a><!-- m -->

I agree with you here. But..... I am also confident that the current 6 Billion price tag (which will probably double with fines and loss compensation) will force revamping of their policies. If there is one good thing that came out of the press coverage, its the fact that BP will have a microscope on them now.

Gas stations are independently owned. By boycotting BP gas stations, you are just boycotting the poor schmuck who had the bad luck of picking BP as his gasoline provider whenever he did. Sure he can switch over to another company, but that costs a lot of money too. And these are mostly small business owners who are actually supplying jobs to Americans.

This is the thing that people don't realize (I didnt either in the beginning). Not only is the BP station a franchise. It is not an exclusive right to BP gas. Meaning that many many of the gas stations out there that do not carry the BP flag, buy their gas from BP.

People dont know what energy company they are pumping into their cars. The only way your can probably guarantee your not buying BP gas is to buy Exxon. Talk about 2 black sheep.....

You guys are making me wish I had about 30k worth of BP LEAPs right about now.

yea, that's kinda my point too. The stock market being the emotional gauge that it is.... My take is even at 12 billion, this is a nit to their profit bottom line.

[Vllad]

Wow Vllad, you are seriously out there these days. You should really seek help now.

Webster Online Dictionary
Disaster
An adverse or unfortunate event, esp. a sudden and extraordinary misfortune; a calamity; a serious mishap.
<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.webster-dictionary.net/d.aspx?w=disaster">http://www.webster-dictionary.net/d.aspx?w=disaster</a><!-- m -->

Natural
Existing in nature or created by the forces of nature, in contrast to production by man; not made, manufactured, or processed by humans; as, a natural ruby; a natural bridge; natural fibers; a deposit of natural calcium sulfate. Opposed to artificial, man-made, manufactured, processed and synthetic.
<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.webster-dictionary.net/d.aspx?w=natural">http://www.webster-dictionary.net/d.aspx?w=natural</a><!-- m -->

Oil exists in nature. An oil spill does qualify as 'natural disaster' as opposed to a purely man made disaster like pollution, nuclear fallout, space trash, etc.

You couldn't be more wrong.

A natural disaster is an earthquake or tsunami not an oil spill. This type of hyperbole is what leads to the bullshit we see on TV.

You might be able to twist it into some kind of man made disaster but again I think you would be wrong. How does this consistute a disaster? You can maybe call it an incident, accident or even negligence but using the word "Disaster" to decribe the gulf spill is still hyperbole.

Using your logic I can hire a hitman to kill someone, because I didnt do it...it was a contractor of mine.

Actually no. That is using your logic not mine. Your analogy is totally irrelevant and bad.

The only way you could compare the two is if BP, the drilling company and everyone else involved actually conspired and spent millions of dollars to intentially make sure the rig broke and spilled that oil.

Unless you feel that all the parties invovled actually drilled that well with the goal to intentially dump it into the ocean your analogy is flawed and you clearly have no earthly idea what I am saying.

BP is 100% responsible for the spill, no if ands or buts.
Their contractor
Their rig
Their policy
Their plans
Their failure
Their mess
Their responsiblity

It all depends on the contracts between BP, the drilling contracter and equipment manufacturers. The indemnificaiton relationship between all companies involved will determine responsibility assuming negligence is established. If this is an accident and negligence is not established then no fault will be found.

That is not to say in the end BP may be found ultimately 100% responsible but I am only stating that you sure as hell don't know that. You are basing your opinion on Judge Judy not on any facts. In my opinion basing your opinion on Judge Judy is completely moronic.

Judge Judy is possibly the best common sense no bullshit judge in America. Yes her show is entertainment and holds no legal weight, but shes got more legal experience & common sense than you could ever hope for. If you think she is a moron, you are clearly an Ignoramus.

Judge Judy is a moron because she is there to sell Coke and Ford Trucks not deal with facts. Her opinion is irrelevant no matter how much common sense she has because she doesn't know the facts. Making educated guesses is dangerous because morons watch that shit and actually believe what she says as if it is gospel.


To answer Breands question I think there is no doubt you pick up BP. They have a PR nightmare on there hands that will shake there stock but in the end they will come out of this way a head.

The spill is a piece of cake to get by. It is the Scottish thing that could hurt them more.


Vllad

[Vanraw]

More tidbits on BP. Note I have not bought this yet, but I think I will be soon.

Take a look at the largest institutional owners of BP and the levels they are invested. Some interesting names there, of institutions that have made a boat load of money in the market.
<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=BP+Major+Holders">http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=BP+Major+Holders</a><!-- m -->

WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLP
$1,988,411,595
BARROW, HANLEY MEWHINNEY & STRAUSS, INC.
$953,107,636
BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION
$793,583,974
STATE FARM MUTUAL AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE CO
$744,880,379
PRICE (T.ROWE) ASSOCIATES INC
$710,072,872
MORGAN STANLEY
$640,602,303
FMR LLC
$448,284,051
Tradewinds Global Investors, LLC
$424,386,673
GATES (BILL & MELINDA) FOUNDATION
$407,080,310
WELLS FARGO & COMPANY
$384,053,535

Then look at the October Option calls. Looks at the open interest at 40, 50 and 60 dollars. This is a very large interest / bet that this is going to move.
<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=BP&m=2010-10">http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=BP&m=2010-10</a><!-- m -->

[Breand]

I'm loving the Jan 12 ask of 1.83 with a $55 strike. Heck who knows, in 18 months hyperinflation will raise it to that regardless!

[Vanraw]

I never did pull trigger on a BP. Looking at it now, and wondering what they are going to do when they reinstate a dividend. If it returns to the same levels the stock will bump strong because the blue hairs will jump in.

[Zouji]

Interesting responses so far. I suppose I'm the only person on the Gulf Coast then. This disaster is a very big deal around here because it has pretty much kicked the local economy in the stomach while it was already lying down sick in the mud. Shrimp fishing is only one of the business affected in the area. A lot of those people in the shrimp boats aren't part some huge mega corporation, they run there own small businesses. If people don't buy shrimp then they don't make money. Deep sea fishing on the gulf is another big business. Every year there is a huge gulf fishing tournament which nets lots of tourists money. Guess what happened. An oil spill. So all the tourists didn't go to gulf shores and spend lots of money. This winter lots of old rich Yankee snow birds probably are gonna pick another spot to nest. That's also gonna hurt local business. What really pisses people off though is that boats and crews were brought in from other areas to help with the spill clean up. While a decent chunk of those local shrimp boat captains had to sit out of work. The BP media said that they employed lots of local fishermen to help with the clean up. But a lot of boats and fishermen were left out of the effort.

Plus to top all of this we have no clue what the ecological damage will be. It may be minimal or it may be very bad. Ecologist still don't know a lot about sea life in the deep gulf area. Or really any deep sea area.

Yes oil does leak naturally from the bottom of the ocean. But not this much in one spot. Also we have no idea what the long term affects of this much oil in this area will be.

It all may not be that bad. But people hate to not know what is going to happen. If a hurricane rolls through and blows away a ton of stuff, we can assess the damage and rebuild. No one knows what the real damage is here or what long term effects it may have.

[Vanraw]

Understand Zouj and agree. My real thougt here is 100% monitary ionvestment opportunity. Meaning will the stock rebound in the long run and will they start paying a divedend at levels they did befor.

The Whole BP thing is stll a huge cluster @#$%^& on all fronts. I mean the local BP gas station is still suffering across the country, and most of these are just branded bp wherre the actual business is small business owners.

[Breand]

I think all you have to do is look at how easily Exxon recovered and how little they paid in reparations to know that BP will not have any issues in the future.

[Zouji]

For the next few years there going to be facing a lot of law suits. Even the "State of Alabama" is planning on suing them immediately or if they don't pay within a reasonable time to sue them then. Depends on who gets elected to be the new Governor on Nov 2. I'm also going to assume that Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana, and probably Texas will be filing suits shortly as well.

The state government is hurting for cash so they are probably going to sue them for some ridiculous amount of money. If they do that then you can bet Mississippi and Louisiana will immediately do the same. That isn't even taking into account all of the personal and group suits that will follow.



So the stock may not pay dividends until all of these lawsuits are cleared up. But, I have no clue. I'm not a financial analysts.

[Jakensama]

Texas was relatively unaffected, would be hard to file suit..

The other states you mentioned have like 4 literate residents between them and hang their sporting trophies up for display in wall marts, sure BP can buy better legal teams.