DOW prediction and other consipricy musings.

[Vanraw]

The Dow hitting 10800 in the current environment, in late September, is a sign to me that we will see a noticeable dip in the next month (probability sooner then later). There seems to be a real trend right now between 10100ish and 11000ish. This is completely subjective on my part. Its also part "conspiracy fear" aspect in that the market is controlled and not a free market flowing entity.

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I predict the Dow will see a 500 point drop in the next 3 to 4 weeks.

No, I dont have my money where my foolish predictions of highs and lows are. Just saying, when I look at the last several months, since the DOW has hit its short term pattern, that it will follow that pattern. The market makers will make it happen.

:twisted:

Whats your prediction for the next month?

[Grieve]

Very difficult to know what the hell is going to happen in this environment. I thought the market was set for a big drop 3-4 weeks ago, and so bought a bunch of Apple puts as a hedge against my Apple position. Of course the market (and especially Apple) has only gone up since then. So they expired worthless last week.

My prediction is that the S&P will end the year up around 8% for the year, although what it will do on the way to that is anyone's guess.

[Breand]

well the Fed is certainly creating the environment to make people fearful about the markets today.

I think we are in for a dip too, and frankly Im waiting on it, as I'd like to start buying again but th market is too high right now.

I'm no fan of Jim Cramer but I came upon his new book at the library yesterday and picked it up. There's a chapter on options trading I want to read, and he also goes into how it was an awesomely unique buying opportunity in March 2009 for 20-30 somethings. My portfolio agrees with him there.

[Vanraw]

So far, I couldnt have been more wrong.

Dow at 10,920 right now. I still think there is a strong dip coming.... but if we dont then look out 12000!

[Breand]

I just sold off 10k of stock today, which shows you my opinion of the market right now =) Thinking about remodeling my bathroom =)

Today's jump is basically Japan saying to the U.S., "Fuck guys, your economy is so bad that we have to print money out of thin air just to get people to stop protecting themselves with it."

[Breand]

Doing a 180 now. With Helicopter Ben gassing up the chopper to star in Quantitative Easing Part II, stocks are gonna have a nice jump, probably even this week. still a long term bear of course, but we should have a nice month ahead of us.

[Vanraw]

Yea me too. Unless this bank think does something really negative, I think the market is ready for some more upward movement. Even holiday sales are going to look good.

[Grieve]

But if the Fed don't do QEII (or not as much as the market expects)...

[Breand]

he's resigned to it now for that reason. By not doing it he will thrust the economy into the double-dip recession, because everyone is expecting it and the shock will play havoc on the markets. If the markets demand something, he has to follow suit.

[Breand]

heh, what I said in print form. Since the market now expects it, and has been priced accordingly, the Fed HAS to do it or create a lot of turmoil if they don't.

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