Apple and Steve Jpbs

[Vanraw]

I think its interesting that they annouce the leave the day befor earnings. My prediction is that the earnings are going to be very good to boost confidance in Cook. I think they have timed this to manage the market.

[Grieve]

Yes, it was well timed, with yesterday being a holiday as well. Stock has almost fully recovered - I bought more on the dip.

Having said that, I think no matter how good earnings are, there will probably be a "sell on the news" tomorrow. Especially if there is a chink somewhere, like lower margins or less iPads sold than expected. Not to worry, though. I think the stock still hits $400 by year end - barring worse news about Steve (who I hope is doing okay - I read an article about all the problems likely following his cancer and liver transplant, and it sounded pretty rough).

[Grieve]

Blowout and then some!

Revenue: $26.74 vs. $24.4 billion consensus, $25.5 billion "high" Street estimate
EPS: $6.43 vs. $5.38 consensus, $6.02 "high" Street estimate
iPhone shipments: 16.24 million vs. 15.5 million consensus
iPad shipments: 7.33 million vs. 6.2 million consensus
March revenue guidance: $22 billion vs $20.6 billion Street consensus (and they always guide low!)

[Vanraw]

Yea, thats what I thought. Its still over priced IMHO but far be it for me to understand the stock market....

[Grieve]

How can it be overvalued with a forward P/Es that's likely somewhere around 12 when you factor in yesterday's earnings and back out the huge wad of cash they have? They have higher growth than companies with P/Es in the stratosphere.

[Breand]

Im certainly considering buying the dip. I just can't move myself past the fact I owned it at $82 and sold at $110. =)

[Grieve]

Hope this isn't true.

Steve Jobs Visits Cancer Clinic, Physicians Quoted by Tabloid Saying He Has Six Weeks Left

[Vanraw]

Hard to say. Sometimes the tabloids get it right. I hope not also, ohnly because I think the guy is a pretty good guy. We should all live to be 100.

If it came out as true (which would be offical n a day or 2), how much do you think the the stock would dip? Prior to everyone understanding that earnings are still ok?

The verizion ipone sales is doing pretty well. Employees are being told to not buy them, due to inventory. Apple also has ptoducts lined up, though im not sure how much growth revenue they generate. Nano iphone, ipad v2 and then iphone v5.

At some point the growth is going to flatten, meaning the fenzy will be about slower growth of new customers and sustained levels for customers upgrading.

Is apple a short or put op?

[Vanraw]

FYI I just bought some march 340 puts. Not alot but just a fast gamble on news.

[Vanraw]

what a feedinfg frenzy. Im up 13% already

[Vanraw]

This is the meeting to watch. Will Jobs be there tomorrow?

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Apple CEO Steve Jobs, who recently took a medical leave of absence from his company, and Google chief executive Eric Schmidt will be among the attendees of President Obama’s event with business leaders in San Francisco Thursday evening, according to the ABC News.

[Airyth]

screw stocks, what's the over/under on the death bets on Jobs in Vegas?

[Grieve]

Maul, I can certainly see stock falling 20% or even 30% if he dies, or if it becomes clear he's going to. I'll probably buy some out of the money puts as protection against that. But if it happened, I would definitely back up the truck and buy more - even without him, you can't fight the fundamentals. Apple has massive earnings power going forward.

Also, I think the next massive thing for them won't be the iPhone nano or the iPad 2. It wil lbe Near Field Communications (NFC). They are putting chips in the next round of iPhones, and may even be planning to provide terminals free to businesses. What does that mean? Well, when you go to the grocery store, or the gas pump, or the mall, instead of pulling out your credit card, you'll just wave your phone over a terminal. No more need for credit cards or cash, or multiple store cards. It's a $6.2 trillion market. Just imagine them getting a 1-2% cut of even a fraction of that.

Anyway, hope the rumors about Jobs aren't true. America needs more people like him as they slowly lose their econonic superpower role to a host of upstarts.

[Vanraw]

Maul, I can certainly see stock falling 20% or even 30% if he dies, or if it becomes clear he's going to. I'll probably buy some out of the money puts as protection against that. But if it happened, I would definitely back up the truck and buy more - even without him, you can't fight the fundamentals. Apple has massive earnings power going forward.

I think if the stock dropped 20 to 30% on the news, I would jump in as well.

[Vanraw]

Looks like he showed up to meet Obama.

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[Grieve]

Frankly all these Steve Jobs health scare stories are good for the stock. It shakes out the weak hands, and basically creates the expectation that he's not going to be around forever. So when he does eventually leave the company (for whatever reason), it's not going to be a major shock.

[Vanraw]

FYI I just bought some march 340 puts. Not alot but just a fast gamble on news.

Just sold the puts for 4.81 for a 76% gain ion one day! Could have hung on to them for more, but no reason to risk losing a tasty little 1 day profit.

Momma needs a new kitchen!

[Grieve]

Very nice trade! I bought an April call spread on the pullback...he looked thin, but fine at the dinner last night. Not totally convinced the Enquirer pics are actually him.

[Grieve]

Then again...

http://www.radaronline.com/exclusives/20...-treatment

[Vanraw]

FYI I just bought some march 340 puts. Not alot but just a fast gamble on news.

Just sold the puts for 4.81 for a 76% gain ion one day! Could have hung on to them for more, but no reason to risk losing a tasty little 1 day profit.

Momma needs a new kitchen!

The puts are over 12 today /cry

[Airyth]

FYI I just bought some march 340 puts. Not alot but just a fast gamble on news.

Just sold the puts for 4.81 for a 76% gain ion one day! Could have hung on to them for more, but no reason to risk losing a tasty little 1 day profit.

Momma needs a new kitchen!

The puts are over 12 today /cry

stocks are just "educated" gambling. You can't expect to always buy at the lowest of the lows or sell at the highest of the highs.... the important thing is that you came out ahead

[Grieve]

The puts are over 12 today /cry

I just logged on here to say "I bet you wish you'd kept those puts", but I see you beat me to it.

I suspect Apple will go up from here (I bought more calls yesterday). After all sorts of rumours that the iPad 2 would be badly delayed, it's now going to be announced next Wednesday, probably for March availability. And the supposed "iPad killer", the Motorola Zoom tablet, is going to be selling for a ridiculous $800, and the things it was supposed to be provide that the iPad didn't aren't panning out (iPad 2 will also have front and rear cameras, Zoom isn't getting flash support at release, etc). Also wouldn't be supprised if Apple drop the price of the iPad.

[Vllad]

Don't believe those release dates.

You drive me crazy talking about Apple. Since we do all of their distribution I can't comment directly but let me just say I wouldn't mind if they fell into the ocean.


Vllad

[Vanraw]

You drive me crazy talking about Apple.

Vllad

lol, You cant walk in here Vllad and just toss on someones religion like that.

[Grieve]

I'm more intrigued by the inside info he apparently just gave us on the iPad 2 availability. if the market is expecting March and it ends being April or later, that does make for an interesting short-term short opportunity...

Actually I would love to hear any dirt on why they suck as a customer. Is it because they insist on a certain delivery date, no sooner and no later?