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 Post subject: Re: Netflix
PostPosted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 2:55 pm 
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Yes, but how you do figure out which new shows you want to watch? Personally I'm fine with waiting until the end of the season to see if the show is renewed/well received, but my wife is very much a watercooler/Facebook TV watcher - she wants to be able to discuss the new episodes with all her friends as she watches them.

I guess they could make the first 2-3 episodes of a new show free, so you can try them before you have to subscribe to them.

Also, if subscriptions are based around shows rather than channels, how do you deal with live TV like news and sport?

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 Post subject: Re: Netflix
PostPosted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 9:38 pm 
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Grieve wrote:
I guess they could make the first 2-3 episodes of a new show free, so you can try them before you have to subscribe to them.



Seems like Zune / Xbox is doing this now. At least for the Pilot shows. Ive watched a couple that were free on ABC and NBC. If you want to watch the 2nd episode, you pay.

Im like you. If there is a show I want to watch, I would rather buy the season, and sit down in a couple of sessions and watch it. I dont schedule anything with TV except for some sports like the Bears. If watching the Bears was a subscription, I would pay. Same goes for a news channel.

I will say that it is interesting how the dynamics of Music has changed. When we were kids we would hear about new bands and music on the radio. My kids keep introducing me to new music I like, that Ive never heard of, and isnt on the radio at all. That's the future of TV too.

Channels are like studio's, and shows are like bands, and the episodes are like songs.

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 Post subject: Re: Netflix
PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 5:29 pm 
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Netflix just crushed analyst expectations on their earnings - 73c vs 55c expected. They also regained 600,000 subscribers. Guided down for next quarter, though.

Stock is up about 13% to $107 after hours.

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 Post subject: Re: Netflix
PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 7:12 pm 
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Might see my money again after all.

They still have an end to Starz coming next month, though. I was just looking through the Starz list to see if there was anything I'd better watch before the deal ends but while there's a lot of good "rainy Sunday" movies, there's not a lot of top notch stuff (they do have the new Tron but Tron is one of the few movies I would say you should definitely see in Bluray. I don't think their streaming version is even HD, though a lot of native Netflix stuff is.)

I still do 1 disc + unlimited streaming. Costs more than it used to but there's still no other, better choice.

I think this deal will hurt Starz a lot more than Netflix. I was reading that they plan to release their own streaming service but a) is anyone going to pay for JUST Starz? and b) I'll be surprised if they suddenly jump out with a big list of supported devices.

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 Post subject: Re: Netflix
PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 1:18 am 
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Yea, I think its all about the devices.

Still surprised that Blockbuster didnt make a better push when Netflix was down.

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 Post subject: Re: Netflix
PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 11:32 am 
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Up 22% now, wow. Wish I'd bought some near-dated calls.

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 Post subject: Re: Netflix
PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 1:14 pm 
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Vanraw wrote:
Yea, I think its all about the devices.

Still surprised that Blockbuster didnt make a better push when Netflix was down.


The bracket of subscribers that Blockbuster should have gobbled up is probably disappointed on the dvd by mail turnaround. I pay 10 bucks.. and get a dvd once every week and a half or so. Netflix had them beat by at least 2 days at least. Dropping Blockbuster today. Going back to the local rental store for the foreseeable future. Blockbuster didn't refine their website to at least match Netflix either.

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 Post subject: Re: Netflix
PostPosted: Tue Feb 07, 2012 12:15 pm 
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It will be interesting to see what kind of success verizon will have in this market segment as they are now jumping into both streaming content (for everyone) and physical DVD rental via Redbox.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/ ... ompanyNews

Verizon already has a Xbox client, though its for FIOS only customers today. It will be very interesting to see this develop. The thing about Verizon, is it has all sorts of video content distribution rights, and secure mechanisms that studios love.

This will have to be revisited in a year, but it looks like Netflix is about to get is first real feel for what competition is all about. Based on the bat shit crazy choices the executive team made in the past, I would not have a whole lot of confidence in Netflix's ability to deal with it.

My long term prediction for netflix is it will be bought by a big boy. Google, ATT, Apple, Amazon, Face book...... I used to think Verizon would be interested but its clear now they are choosing to compete.

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 Post subject: Re: Netflix
PostPosted: Tue Feb 07, 2012 12:22 pm 
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Interestingly, it looks like Verizon and AT&T (and Rogers and BCE in Canada) are also partnering with Apple for their iTV, which suggests that all content is going to be over IP. The big question is whether they will be able to provide "live" network (and cable) shows.

If Verizon are launching their own streaming service, I would think that would make them less likely to want to partner with Apple.

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 Post subject: Re: Netflix
PostPosted: Tue Feb 07, 2012 12:50 pm 
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Grieve wrote:
..

If Verizon are launching their own streaming service, I would think that would make them less likely to want to partner with Apple.


Verizon FIOS opened up digitial media distribution capabilities via IP. And we have a content distribution process where we want to be the digital media content distribution provider for everyone. So if your a small cable company, we want to stick a 10 gig pipe into your center and be your content distributor. Then you dont have to mess with a hundred different content carriers or need satellite dishes etc.

None of this is proprietary by they way.

http://www.verizonbusiness.com/solution ... tribution/

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 Post subject: Re: Netflix
PostPosted: Tue Feb 07, 2012 3:13 pm 
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I would bet a shiny nickel that Verizon won't be able to compete with Netflix when it comes to having a decent website or user experience.

Although I have no issues with Verizon as a basic cellphone carrier, and 4G is fantastic, their website, their nickel-and-dime nature with cellphone features and their software in general has always annoyed me. (The best thing about the Droid was it let me have a phone that didn't have Verizon's dirty mitts all over it. Or at least, not as much as in my previous non-Droid cellphone. They still loaded it with uninstallable Verizon crap.)


But just to demonstrate this isn't coming from any Verizon hatred, I can say the same thing about Amazon's website when it comes to movies, including streaming. As much as I love Amazon as a company and find their website generally useful for shopping, their interface is not even close to as good as Netflix's. Along similar lines to the Facebook discussion, I like to think about companies in terms of what their long-term hold on customers may be -- how easy would it be for people to switch? And Netflix's hook is their rating system and how they built their website around it. "Netflix knows me." I go there now and get categories like "Violent British War Movies" and "Witty Space-Travel TV Shows".

If another site opened up that was completely identical to Netflix in offerings, for $2 less per month, I probably wouldn't switch. They would have to have an interface as slick as Netflix's and even then I'd have to consider that "they don't know me" and I'd have to spend some time rating movies to get the system oriented around my likes again.


So basically I have pretty good confidence in Netflix still. I'd love to see Amazon buy them, really, but only if they plan to keep the Netflix interface!

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 Post subject: Re: Netflix
PostPosted: Tue Feb 07, 2012 4:09 pm 
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I agree, the Netflix interface rocks, and almost every setup box, DVD/blu-ray player, and smart TV has it built in. I don't see anyone displacing them anytime soon.

Incidentally, the Apple iTV is apparently already running in labs at telco companies, and sounds pretty cool:

Quote:
The product reportedly integrates Siri, Apple’s voice-recognition software that acts as a personal assistant on the latest iPhone, into television sets to help viewers make programming choices. Viewers can then control the TV by voice or hand gestures, all from the comfort of a couch. An on-screen keyboard, meanwhile, can also be activated in a similar manner, allowing viewers to surf the web, conduct video chats and use social media sites such as Twitter and Facebook – all without any physical interface.


I'm buying one!

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 Post subject: Re: Netflix
PostPosted: Tue Feb 07, 2012 5:02 pm 
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I think I'm at the point where I would refuse to buy an Apple product purely because I don't like their business practices or want to support some kind of lawyer-enforced monopoly.

Most businesses have a model wherein they try and keep the customer engaged by simply being better than everyone else. Apple's model is to keep the customer engaged by invoking lawyers to stomp on competitors and creating proprietary hardware traps that will be hard for the customer to get out of -- not by being superior, as with Netflix's interface, but simply by locking you in. "Man this Samsung TV really is better. Oh but my iReceiver and iDVD and iStream won't work with it. Guess I'll just wait for the next iTV." They aren't quite to that extent, but I think their every move says that's where they'd like to be.

I submit iTunes as proof that Apple is more interested in lawyering away competition than they are in creating a good product. I bought an iPod back in the day. I got iTunes. I wanted to like it. It sucked. It still sucks. Once in a while something makes me load it up again ("only on iTunes!") and it just reminds me how bad it sucks. They aren't trying to attract people by improving it so much as they are trying to think of ways to force people to use it.


Imagine what a shitty state television would be in today if whoever invented the first TV had some apparently endless patent on it that prevented anyone from releasing anything similar to a TV. We'd still be sitting here watching black and white 13" TV screens because without competition, there was no big drive to improve. And I think that's exactly where Apple would be, if they could just get the legal systems of the world to cooperate.

Fie on Apple.

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 Post subject: Re: Netflix
PostPosted: Tue Feb 07, 2012 5:37 pm 
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No forum is safe from Apple wars... :)

I know this is falling on deaf ears, but...yet again you are singling out Apple. Microsoft has sued every single Android hardware maker, and they are almost all paying massive subsidies to Redmond. Motorola just forced Apple to stop selling iPhones in Germany because they claimed Apple was infringing a patent that has been declared FRAND. Samsung is trying to do the same, and the EU has now started an anti-trust investigation into them because of it. Oracle is suing Google over java patent infringement. Everyone is doing it. Are you going to stop buying products by anyone that sues over patents?

And I repeat, Apple haven't sued Microsoft or RIMM, because they are doing innovative things with their phones (well, Microsoft it), rather than copying stuff. If Google/Samsung/LG/etc innovated instead of copying there would be no lawsuits. It's very simple to change the software do all things in a slightly different way, instead of copying it wholesale. Apple is encouraging innovation and discouraging lazy wholesale copying.

As for iTunes, why would you need to use it? Everything is in the cloud now. I don't need to plug my iDevices into the computer, and I don't need to load iTunes. Anyway, iTunes was always better than the crappy applications that came with other MP3 players and cell phones - especially that horrible Verizon VCAST crap that I had to install for the last phone I had before the iPhone.

Also, Android phones always have crapware from Verizon/AT&T/whoever installed on them, which you usually can't uninstall without rooting your phone - I believe I just saw a post from you complaining about it. iPhones never have and never will allow that to happen.

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 Post subject: Re: Netflix
PostPosted: Tue Feb 07, 2012 5:53 pm 
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Quote:
I think I'm at the point where I would refuse to buy an Apple product purely because I don't like their business practices or want to support some kind of lawyer-enforced monopoly.


QFT

Lets not turn this into a Apple religion battle thread. We have enough.

I will say that Netflix interface on the PC and xbox is great. Also the algorithms they use that identify movies you might like based on your ratings rocks. But the interface on some of the devices I have like Blueray, and a TV in my wifes office, is about as good as any other provider Ive seen.

I do agree that $2 might not move people, but the ability to rent VOD brand new movies, and if they have a better selection then netflix, then it might be a real game changer.

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 Post subject: Re: Netflix
PostPosted: Tue Feb 07, 2012 6:39 pm 
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Grieve wrote:
yet again you are singling out Apple.

I'm not singling them out, I'm responding to the specific company you brought up!

And it's relevant to the thread. Apple's streaming products will not be competing with Netflix in my house because I do not like the way Apple does business. I have no problem with how Netflix does business and in fact consider it a big selling point that they try to support every possible hardware platform out there.

And while this is anecdotal, I doubt I'm alone in this thinking, or even in the minority. I don't think people like being locked into a single company in any way and Apple's practices continue to turn people away even as it locks some of them in.

Point being: Apple vs Netflix? Netflix.

Quote:
Also, Android phones always have crapware from Verizon/AT&T/whoever installed on them, which you usually can't uninstall without rooting your phone - I believe I just saw a post from you complaining about it. iPhones never have and never will allow that to happen.

iPhones and iPads come with pre-installed apps that you can't uninstall, as far as I can tell. Most people move them into some folder and just never touch them again.

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 Post subject: Re: Netflix
PostPosted: Tue Feb 07, 2012 9:46 pm 
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Fair enough. I'll also avoid buying products by Motorola and their (soon to be) owner Google because of their indefensible and innovation-killing tactics...

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/02/07/google_to_continue_motorolas_frand_licensing_that_seeks_to_monopolize_h264_umts.html

Quote:
Mueller calculated that Motorola is demanding a rate from Microsoft for a single patent related to H.264 that is between 73 and 146 times greater than the entire H.264 licensing royalties sought by MPEG LA for use of the entire patent pool. Retaliatory attempts to extort such royalties as a bargaining chip in a patent dispute defy every letter of the FRAND acronym.

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 Post subject: Re: Netflix
PostPosted: Fri Jun 01, 2012 6:58 pm 
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Hoo man, NFLX at $62.9 right now.

So tempting. Almost 1 year ago they were at $295!

And they're doing well domestically. The dive is mostly because they've been getting killed overseas, with Amazon apparently being a big competitor (via LoveFilm, which just got a nice exclusive deal).


Still, everybody talks Netflix these days and nobody seems to hate it. The anger caused by their price change seems to have vanished and everyone is back to liking them again (probably because, domestically, they're still the best game in town).

I even think they could do well in an economic downturn because if you need to save money, canceling your cable and getting Netflix movies is a reasonable plan. (Every time I see those DirectTV "cancel your cable" ads, I think of Netflix. Really that should be Netflix's advertisement scheme...)


It's just hard to predict "long term" with Netflix. Amazon I can buy into and if their stock goes down, I just hang onto it, because 10 years from now I have every confidence that Amazon will be around and their stock is a good long term investment. Netflix I'm less sure about. If they come out on top, your $60 could see the light of $300. If they don't, your $60 might be dust in the wind.

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 Post subject: Re: Netflix
PostPosted: Sat Jun 02, 2012 12:14 am 
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I dont know. They have been shedding value since 1Q earnings. And the analyst estimates are all over the place. Also I use my Xbox as my media server for my main PC, and Amazon now has a client (along with a crap load of others in the VOD space). But Amazon has the streaming for one low rate as well as VOD of new movies.

Netflix is getting some, or will soon be getting some competition.

It might be a stock that shouldnt be trading at a multiple of 25 times earnings anymore. Analyst though are all over the place. I dont think Ive seen a stock that has such a wide range of what analyst think its going to do.

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 Post subject: Re: Netflix
PostPosted: Sat Jun 02, 2012 11:42 am 
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I like Netflix and still own calls (although I wish I'd sold them when it was $129 in Feb...), but I agree with Maul...competition is heating up. Seems like everyone is doing streaming these days, but especially Amazon. What that means is that the providers are upping their prices. Netflix can't afford to pay more, but Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, etc can.

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 Post subject: Re: Netflix
PostPosted: Sat Jun 02, 2012 5:19 pm 
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Netflix can't be said to be competing with iTunes. iTunes is more like a supplement to your Netflix subscription. For example, Netflix has the first 6 episodes of Walking Dead available for streaming. iTunes has them all, but at $2.99 per episode, Netflix will pay for itself just from streaming the first 6 episodes of this one show.

So I don't see anyone canceling Netflix in order to use iTunes. They're different business models and they're actually compatible with each other.

Amazon Prime is a far more direct competitor but Prime is $4/month and also gives you free two-day shipping and other stuff and it shows -- Prime almost never has anything good available. Their available money to spend on licenses is obviously a lot less than Netflix. While Amazon could throw money into it to acquire licenses, it would be running Prime in the red (unless they start charging more).


The real competition for Netflix would be something like HBO or Showtime, if you were able to get them streaming a la carte, which so far they haven't seemed interested in. Really that's what Netflix is: a giant HBO type channel that streams a wide variety of shows and occasionally has new, high end movies available (but generally doesn't have the one you wanted to watch).

So iTunes simply is not competing with Netflix. Apple doesn't seem the type to offer a monthly streaming package. Amazon, including Prime and LoveFilm, is competing with iTunes far more than they're competing with Netflix. Hulu might be a better competitor but they seem uninterested in movies, focusing entirely on TV shows.


I don't think Netflix has any serious competition in the "1 monthly fee for a la carte shows" arena.

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 Post subject: Re: Netflix
PostPosted: Sat Jun 02, 2012 7:29 pm 
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I'm working on cutting the cable right now, so I've looked at all these in some depth. Picking iTunes only is definitely an option, despite the cost. Buying season passes to every show we watch is still way cheaper than cable/DirecTV, plus they are are HD, and we can stream them from the cloud to any iOS device "forever".

Netflix is cheap, but they don't have current season shows, which is a deal breaker for my wife. Plus a lot of their stuff isn't HD. Amazon is the same, and has a much smaller selection than Netflix. And it has a really crappy interface on the one device I own that supports it.

Hulu has current season shows, but it also has ads (a deal breaker for me - even Hulu Plus has ads), and they have a limited selection in HD.

Probably going to build a cheap Windows Media Center box as a DVR for free local channels (90% of my wife's shows are on ABC), and buy the rest from iTunes. Or if they don't have current seasons on iTunes (e.g. Game of Thrones), download the suckers.

Still hoping Apple's iTV has a way to subscribe to single channels as "apps", though. Might get more details at the developer conference next week.

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 Post subject: Re: Netflix
PostPosted: Sat Jun 02, 2012 7:40 pm 
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Did you look at Hulu Plus? If I was going to use Hulu regularly I'd get the Plus package which cuts ads and I'm pretty sure increases the selection of shows.

I rarely watch TV shows though so I almost never use Hulu.

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 Post subject: Re: Netflix
PostPosted: Sun Jun 03, 2012 12:17 am 
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I ordered Hulu plus when it came out on a xbox app and canceled it after 2 months. Like Hulu it doesn't carry everything., and some of the shows I wanted to watch were flagged as "internet only", and not available to stream via the xbox client. WTF was I giving the a monthly check for? Limited access and I still had to watch commercials. ...

I was disappointed.

The link below is the Video / TV partners xbox has now.

http://www.xbox.com/en-US/live/partners

Bottom line is 2 years ago it was just netflix and zune. Now its over flowing with options and its only going to grow. Amazon plus isnt the only game in town doing streaming out side of VOD either. Verizon is about to launch its redbox / fios streaming service that will be a direct compete with netflix, plus VOD which they dont have.

Im not saying that netflix isnt going to continue to be the dominate provider in this space, just that they are not going to be the only guy.

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 Post subject: Re: Netflix
PostPosted: Sun Jun 03, 2012 8:23 am 
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Or not.

Interesting article on revenue.
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/06/02/ ... ats-apple/

Also, one of the xbox apps is vudu. I did not know this was Walmart.

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