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 Post subject: Amazon
PostPosted: Thu Sep 06, 2012 2:59 pm 
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Bezos just hit the ball out the park - I bought call spreads.

New 7" Fire is $159
7" Fire HD $199
8.9" Fire HD $299
8.9" Fire HD with 12 months of 4G LTE $549

Even I would be tempted...if I wasn't an Apple man through and through. ;)

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 Post subject: Re: Amazon
PostPosted: Thu Sep 06, 2012 5:47 pm 
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Ah...turns out most of the new tablets are ad-supported...Bezos didn't mention that...

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 Post subject: Re: Amazon
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2012 1:12 am 
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Whats wrong with using ads to supplement the cost of the device? Good for Amazons bottom line.

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 Post subject: Re: Amazon
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2012 7:32 am 
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I've seen the ad-supported regular Kindle and it didn't seem like a problem. It's not like it puts an ad up while you're reading. I expect an ad-supported Fire to have an ad section on the menu screens but nothing when you are in an app, including reading, gaming, etc.

Which should be fine, and for $159, I think people will somehow learn to live with it, perhaps drying their tears with the wads of $20 bills they saved by not buying an iPad.

$549 for a bigger tablet with 12 months of 4G is interesting too. Compare that to $629 for the cheapest 4G LTE iPad and that's not counting the data plan.


The $199 one comes with Skype installed too, so camera and microphone.


I do wonder why Apple and Amazon both shun the SD card, though. Expensive licencing involved or something?

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 Post subject: Re: Amazon
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2012 7:56 am 
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Apparently the data plan is only $50 for the first year, and then it's normal data plan prices. Bait and switch. Kind of peeved that Bezos didn't mention this or the advertising thing in his keynote.

Maul, there is nothing wrong from a BUSINESS point of view of having included advertising, but a lot of people (myself included) won't pay for something that includes it. It's one thing to get a free app knowing it has advertising, and another to pay for something and STILL have advertising (see Hulu Plus). So I wish I'd known this before I'd invested more money in Amazon.

Yes, the advertising is fairly in-obtrusive - appears on the lock screen and an area of the main UI (but not in apps, I believe). It's not for me, but I'm sure it will appeal to plenty of people on a budget.

Not sure about the SD card - Google's Nexus 7 doesn't have one either. Might be something about repairability. For Apple, it's probably more about not ruining the sleek look of the device with another socket.

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 Post subject: Re: Amazon
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:00 pm 
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Grieve wrote:
but a lot of people (myself included) won't pay for something that includes it. It's one thing to get a free app knowing it has advertising, and another to pay for something and STILL have advertising (see Hulu Plus).



Scratch flying on any airline off the list.
Scratch taking a bus or taxi anywhere.
Scratch television (even if you say public TV is free, you still had to buy the TV to begin with)
Scratch going to any show, sporting event, concert, etc. unless someone gave you the tickets.

the list goes on....

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 Post subject: Re: Amazon
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:07 pm 
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Arsilon wrote:
Grieve wrote:
but a lot of people (myself included) won't pay for something that includes it. It's one thing to get a free app knowing it has advertising, and another to pay for something and STILL have advertising (see Hulu Plus).



Scratch flying on any airline off the list.
Scratch taking a bus or taxi anywhere.
Scratch television (even if you say public TV is free, you still had to buy the TV to begin with)
Scratch going to any show, sporting event, concert, etc. unless someone gave you the tickets.

the list goes on....


Basically what Arsilon is saying. Advertising pays for shit...your newspaper, the radio.

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 Post subject: Re: Amazon
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2012 1:01 pm 
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Hulu sucks because their advertising forces you to stop watching what you are doing, as long as Amazon doesn't do that (and they won't), it won't be an issue.

Just like noone gives a fuck about gmail and facebook or the cheap kindles being ad subsidized. You don't like it you can purchase a full price edition.


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 Post subject: Re: Amazon
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2012 1:36 pm 
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I read somewhere there won't be an option to buy an advertising-free version, but that could have been wrong - I know the older Kindles had that issue.

I just don't like advertising. It's one thing to have billboards up in the airport, but another to have it in your face in the device you own. I never watch advertising on TV - DVR everything so I can fast forward through it.

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 Post subject: Re: Amazon
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2012 3:19 pm 
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Hulu plus was just stupid. I cant beleive I gave the 2 months. But this is apples to oranges.

The Kindle solution I bought for my kids was a $79 version that the only advertising was the screen saver when it was powered off.

If people want to pay 600 for a ipad go for it. But a sub 200 tablet is going to give them to the masses.

Apple will be hurt here. This and the Microslop Surface are being sold at below manufacturing cost.

There are only so many Apple cult folowers.

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 Post subject: Re: Amazon
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2012 4:16 pm 
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So you are shorting Apple here? ;)

Let's see what the iPad mini goes for. iPhone 5 next week, iPad mini will probably be announced in October.

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 Post subject: Re: Amazon
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2012 10:54 pm 
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Grieve wrote:
So you are shorting Apple here? ;)




HELL NO!
:twisted:

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 Post subject: Re: Amazon
PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2012 6:50 am 
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I think you consistently underestimate the power of delivering things cheaply. A lot of people simply won't be buying an iPad if there's something else that's close to as good and sells for a lot less. You can't scoff at that notion without somehow managing to overlook the existence of stores like Wal-Mart. Love em or hate em, they make bank because Americans love paying less for things. (Also probably why everything is made in China.) The average consumer won't raise an eyebrow at advertising as long as it's not too intrusive. They're used to it because as Arsilon implied, unintrusive advertising is already everywhere.

I wouldn't short Apple just yet either, but I move my "Apple Doomsday" clock forward by 1 minute. Snooty posturing and lawyers will get you far in America, but not as far as simply having cheaper products. Apple leans heavily on the "cool" factor, looking to wow you with slick advertising. Amazon, like Wal-Mart, seeks to wow you with cheap prices. "Cool" comes and goes and nobody is cool forever, but cheap prices are timeless.

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 Post subject: Re: Amazon
PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2012 8:58 am 
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The same was said about iPods, when a zillion cheaper MP3 players came out. All the pundits predicted consumers would go for the cheaper options. 10 year later, the iPod still utterly dominates the market. Even after a year of the Kindle Fire at $199, the iPad still has 68% of the worldwide tablet market. Amazon has 5%.

http://www.bgr.com/2012/08/02/ipad-market-share-q2-2012-tablets-idc/

Still, I think both Apple and Amazon will do well, and the likes of Samsung will get the shaft. As one financial site put it:

Quote:
Amazon is the Wal-Mart of tablets. And Apple is the Tiffany's (TIF). Both strategies can work. I just feel bad for whoever's caught in the middle.

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 Post subject: Re: Amazon
PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2012 6:43 am 
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We'll see what the next official round of numbers brings. According to Amazon, the Fire captured 22% of the US tablet market and sold out:
http://www.nbcnews.com/technology/gadge ... out-972111

And I think things can only get better for Amazon. I still have a hard time convincing my parents to shop there because they're super paranoid about hackers and online sales, but anyone under the age of 40 has no such reservations. I still think the stock is too high right now but then I thought that when it was $210, $220, $230 and $240 as well.

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 Post subject: Re: Amazon
PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2012 8:58 am 
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The most interesting thing about the Amazon and Microslop announcement of price points isnt actually apple. Its everyone else that absolutely must get into this business if they want a part of the personal commuting space of the future. Toshiba, Sony, Samsung, Acer, etc etc are price pointing their products to under price Ipad by a small amount. The Amazon puts these guys out of the business, which might be Amazons real target. Members of the Apple cult are going to buy apple, but the for the rest of the world, the choices are going to get smaller.

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 Post subject: Re: Amazon
PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2012 4:42 pm 
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It is interesting that if you want to compete with Amazon in the hardware business, you have to compete with them as a content provider, because that's where the profits are. There might still be a "luxury market" for tablets that you buy outside of the Amazon model, which will still run Amazon content, but Amazon will have a firm grasp on the "mass market" of tablet hardware.

This isn't really Amazon trying to kill hardware manufacturers so much as it's Amazon wanting to make sure that tablets are relatively cheap and readily available. They want tablets to be like televisions: everyone has one, if not more than one. They need them to become commonplace so that their digital content sales takes off.

It's a great plan, from their perspective, and they're far enough ahead in digital sales (as an overall concept and business model) that it would take a real coalition to uproot them.


Apple's plan, I think, is a flimsier version of this. Amazon ultimately doesn't care who you buy your hardware from and in fact they'd probably have higher profits if you bought your tablet from someone else. They just want to sell you content and they don't care what you play it on. Apple wants to sell you (and lock you into) an entire company's product line. Apple hardware running only Apple software which runs only on Apple hardware. If you don't buy their devices then they have nothing to sell you. If you don't buy Amazon's devices, they're perfectly happy about that and will sell content to whatever it is you buy.

This sort of thinking is probably why Amazon's P/E continues to be off the charts. Amazon is positioning themselves to be a giant in markets that are in their infancy now.

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 Post subject: Re: Amazon
PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2012 9:55 pm 
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Yea agree. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out in the next 2 to 5 years. There are some companies that might be great long-term shorts. It is also going to be interesting to see how Microsoft plays. I read an interesting idea that said most android tablets being sold today could run windows 8.

With the apple law suits basically targeted at Google, you might see a whole flood of devices that move to windows 8 to avoid the apple lawyers. If so Microsoft has defined a price point that they want to see in the market.

This might be what Microsoft is banking on. Either way, apple is going to have to adjust its price point at some point or they will lose market share.

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 Post subject: Re: Amazon
PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2012 8:56 am 
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Slamz wrote:
Apple's plan, I think, is a flimsier version of this. Amazon ultimately doesn't care who you buy your hardware from and in fact they'd probably have higher profits if you bought your tablet from someone else. They just want to sell you content and they don't care what you play it on.

This is both true and untrue. Both Amazon and Google make money from any tablet or cellphone, that's true. Google is the default search engine on iOS devices, and Googles make more mobile search money from Apple devices than ones running Android. Likewise you can buy stuff from Amazon from any device, and there are Kindle apps on iPhones/iPads and Android devices.

However...they both very much prefer you to use their devices over the competition. Kindle Fire basically locks you into it's ecosystem - everything is routed through the Amazon storefront, the Amazon Android store, Amazon Prime, and so on. That's why Google is very unhappy with Amazon, and primarily why they created the Nexus 7. If you buy apps via the Amazon app store, Google gets nothing. If your purchases are all automatically routed to the Amazon store, Google isn't getting search income. So Amazon is more a threat to Google than Apple.

Google similarly wants you to use Android devices rather than iOS devices, even though they currently get more money from Apple users, because they can likewise push you towards Google services (i.e. Google search), and the Google Play appstore, where they get their 30% cut. Also Apple is slowly slicing out Google services from the iPhone/iPad one by one - YouTube and Google maps are about to be dropped as default included apps. I don't think it will be long before Google is no longer the default search engine either.

I would say the company in most trouble here is Google - they are being squeezed by Apple on one side and Amazon on the other. Both of those have a better ecosystem than Google, and importantly, both can sell hardware directly, which Google has a very limited ability to do (despite the purchase of Motorola).

I think Apple and Amazon are the likely winners, and Google is going to get more and more marginalized. As Maul said, lawsuits and the fact that Google is going to give preferential treatment to Motorola means that other manufactures will jump to Microsoft. Even though Amazon is also a fork of Android, I think Android may have peaked in terms of market share.

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 Post subject: Re: Amazon
PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2012 10:43 am 
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That money you owe me would indicate your anti-Android bias (which is obviously an outcropping of your obsession with your hero steve which is so strong that you take his fanatical hatreds as your own) clouds your ability to predict market share.

Also, my google stock is at 705.


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 Post subject: Re: Amazon
PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2012 1:05 pm 
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Okay, double or nothing for our bet - I say Apple gets to $1000 before Google does!

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 Post subject: Re: Amazon
PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2012 1:46 pm 
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Grieve wrote:
Okay, double or nothing for our bet - I say Apple gets to $1000 before Google does!


And if neither get to a thousand, you both pay me.

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 Post subject: Re: Amazon
PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 5:59 pm 
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Looks like the critical consensus so far is "meh" and "man those adverts suck".

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/12/amazon-fire-reviews-idINL1E8KCGC620120912

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 Post subject: Re: Amazon
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2012 9:00 am 
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Grieve wrote:
Looks like the critical consensus so far is "meh" and "man those adverts suck".

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/12/amazon-fire-reviews-idINL1E8KCGC620120912


This is surprising to me. I don't really care about the camera, but GPS and voice reco are part of the android OS. I'm thinking this reviewer is clueless. I had a friend complaining to me about his adroid phone. It ended up the phone didn't come stock with the voice reco Software or GPS. They were free on the Google play market. Is amazon restricting access to Google play?

 
Quote:
the 7-inch Kindle Fire HD has no camera on the back, no GPS navigation, no speech recognition

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 Post subject: Re: Amazon
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2012 9:37 am 
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No Google Play - you have to go through Amazon's (much smaller) store. Unless you root it, of course.

Ars review is pretty meh as well:

http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2012/09/kindle-fire-hd-7-forecast-cloudy-with-a-chance-of-lag/

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