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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 8:34 pm 
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I was watching FB. and kicking myself because I was confident I wanted to buy it at 19, but chickened out.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 12:25 pm 
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22% !

My plan is to sell when the Dow hits 13.5k but the greed is setting in.


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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 4:12 pm 
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Hmmpf. Greed is holding until 13.5... :-D ...

Its interesting to see the market now hanging on news of the cliff. For now there seems to be room for passage of a compromise. But I'm confident some idiotic congressman is going to come out and try to bash obama with some sort of a "hell no"... a Cantor or a Bohner. There is no way they will bend with out getting some political dick waving.

That being said, I'm still holding mine...... greed is good.

I will say that everyone needs to jump in long at some point for a 1q 2q run. A budget will get passed, the consumption confidance will sore, and Sandy is going to create a mini boom. In the area of 100 billion in stimulas in the form of repairs and such. Euro is going to settle as well.

2013 is going to be a bull unless some sort of middle east war breaks out.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 10:31 pm 
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Well that didn't take long.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-maj ... 2012-11-29

Be interesting to see how the market drops tomorrow. tna down 1% in after hour trading.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:07 am 
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Tna at 60.23.

Going to look a little deeper but 99% sure I will sell my tna today.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:12 am 
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up 27% for me...yeah might sell tho I think it does have more room upwards.


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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:58 pm 
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yea, but it has alot of room dowards too :) . I sold all shares. My play accounts are all cash again...

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 1:48 pm 
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my problem is once I sell it, it goes in the new house fund so I run out of play money. So I'm being a greedy bastard and trying to ride it, heh.


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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 2:19 pm 
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I might sell as well, even though I agree with Breand that there is more upside if the cliff is solved. But I didn't sell my Apple options when it popped back to $589, and then they fell back down to $520, so I'm leery of sitting on a gain hoping for more. I feel the market isn't being very rational right now...

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:58 pm 
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The cliff will be solved but I think the question is how does each possible "solution" look from the standpoint of business? (or investors)

1) Big tax hikes, no reduction in spending.

I imagine business would like this. Lots of them benefit from government spending. The new taxes, as long as they aren't on businesses themselves, will keep the debt down and make business happy about the general state of the budget for the foreseeable future.

I suppose a big capital gains tax might hurt stocks overall, though, if the tax puts some other investment scheme into a better light?

2) Big cuts in spending.

DOOOOOOM. Even if you agree with this on libertarian principles (to the political forums!), I think business will see it as a huge negative. Uncle Sam is their sugar daddy. A big "readjustment" will take place.

3) Very little of meaning; debt ceiling increased; same-ol-same-ol.

Not sure about this. It would mean tons of new debt but the spending is still there. The US could take another credit hit rating (good for the stock market? drives more money to stocks, out of bonds?). But this could leave business in fear of what happens next, since it didn't solve the cliff so much as push it out. They'll hold their breath for another year.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:20 pm 
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I think the short-term deal will almost certainly be:

o Middle class rates stay the same
o A rise to 37% for high earners (split between now and 39% rate Dems are looking for)
o Patches for things like AMT
o Some limited spending cuts, but nothing major

The only question is whether it comes before the end of the year, or soon after.

What happens in the longer term is more open, but I think a big deal is on the cards for tax and entitlement reform.

There is a good article on Politico covering how business leaders are saying that if things are handled well, we could be in not just for a recovery, but a massive boom. And this is just doing things that folks on both sides agree on. After reading this I decided to hold onto my TNA...

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/crafting-a-boom-economy-84878.html?hp=t1

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 10:17 pm 
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Without going into the cliff, I just think we will have a sell off until congress passes a bill and sends it to Obama. The market has sort of ignored the bickering. Market is close to 13.5 which is the high end of the channel. I just think we will see some selling.

Also..... I don't think we will see an agreement in the next week which means Xmas. Which means January 1st.

It might be the market has already accepted the fact we will hit 2013, but the people have not. They are to short sited and stupid. What will be interesting is when people get their first pay check with the deductions......

Soooo I'm betting the market will go up and down and up and down..... but when the deal is signed.... we are going to have a rallly.... a big one.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 1:32 pm 
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Just bought tza. Just looking for a 7 to 10% pop then getting out.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:01 am 
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Questioning my taz now that boner is opening the tax hike door. I really thought he would push this to the cliff.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:22 am 
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Him being open to it doesn't mean his party will vote for it. :) But yes, things do look more promising.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 3:11 pm 
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Red herring. Or at least the story I saw was about a tax hike on "the rich". These are the kinds of taxes where they always say things like "This will raise $600 billion dollars", but they mean "over 10 years". So like $60 billion/year against a deficit of $1 trillion. I don't see how that gets us off the cliff. Even if they meet each revenue increase with an equal spending cut, we'd still only be talking about $120 billion/year against a deficit of $1 trillion.

I expect that whatever happens will largely be a punt and we will be worrying about deficit spending again next year. I am learning towards option #3 of my previous list: same ol' same ol'. I doubt business will have much cause to react positively or negatively.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 3:29 pm 
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The cliff isn't about dealing with the deficit, at least not directly. It's about preventing a massive tax rise in two weeks. The negotiations are about what those tax rises will be replaced with, and what level of income will avoid the tax rise. But the cliff talks are not really going to solve much with the deficit directly - there needs to be a lot more talks (and tax/entitlement reform) next year. Right now people are more worried about the recovery being derailed than the deficit.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 4:01 pm 
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The cliff isn't just about bush tax cuts expiring but also about the automatic spending cuts. Basicly pretty aggressive austerity measures that will hurt on the short term more then people realize.

But on the bush tax cuts, as it stands, the average middle class person will see a raise in taxes in the area of 1900. Thats about 158 a month that will all of a sudden start comming out of peoples checks. Couple that with defence spending cut based layoffs, and I think punting is going to be a bad idea.

The funny thing is I don't think those middle class people understand that yet. That's a car payment for many. They don't realize their net is about to get smaller. If they did they would be screeming now as oposed to the first time they get their 2012 check.

I'm betting on a punt also, or a "we will fix it in January"..... both are terrible for the economy.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 4:16 pm 
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for some reason I am optimistic it will get done before the end of the year. I'm still holding on my TNA. Up 27% right now. I just put a bid on a house though, so I'm going to have to sell this stuff within a few weeks.

Edit: wow big close up 3.69% on the day.


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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 11:34 am 
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31.5%! So the question now: Is the fiscal cliff resolution "officially baked in" to the market or is there more to go? Think it may be time to pull the trigger here.


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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:06 pm 
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My take is, and always has been that if they pass a solution, the market is going to soar. The 1Q nd possible 2Q will be record breaking. If they dont, it will have a big correction. If they kick the can down the road, the short sided market will have a good run, but not as good as a solution.

My bet (which at this point was wrong) is that they will still bicker back and forth and I would have been able to catch a quick down turn.

I hate the concept of a plan B / kick the can punt..... Its why we are where we are now. I hope Obama will say the same thing today and stick to his guns. I doubt he will. Going with a plan B allows these ass holes to go home for the holidays while not doing their job. I think going home for the holidays is congress's number one priority as opposed to actually doing their job.

So the real question on the short term is what will Obama say to plan B. Frankly if I were you I would sell, but that's what I said when I sold my TNA and the market rallied since then.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 2:35 pm 
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I've still got my TNA (up 28.92% right now), but that's offset by my dumb decision to sell an Apple put right before it rallied by $30. :) Holding my TNA, but hope the market drops before the end of the week before resuming the rise next week.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 5:15 pm 
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With a minute to spare before the markets closed...I'm out of TNA. Sold at $63.42 for a gain of 34%. This represented my best monetary profit ever since starting up my account in February '09.

11/15/2012 BUY ORDER POSTING TNA $47.39

12/18/2012 SELL ORDER POSTING TNA $63.42

I know we don't really talk about actual money spent here, but to suffice to say, this was a big bet on my part, and I basically made a little over 5 weeks worth of take home pay for the 33 day time frame I owned the ETF.

I'll now sit back and watch the morons in Congress flail around like chickens with little care or regret.


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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:29 pm 
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Awesome trade, congrats! I think you did the right thing. Who knows, tomorrow these yahoos may decide no deal is possible and totally tank the market. Or they may announce a deal and the market goes down anyway on "sell the news".

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 7:41 pm 
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Yea agree. Nice trade. Im really very disappointed in congress talking all kissy face and such. I want apocalyptic name calling and finger pointing!!!! WTF!

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