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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2012 3:15 pm 
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The market is defying logic.... Boner basically just got on TV and said we are going off the cliff and its Obama's fault. And the market .... went up?

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 11:06 am 
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showing up today it looks like. what a mess, but I knew it was coming. I don't think Boehner has come to terms with the fact that half of his members could give a shit what his marching orders are.


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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 2:36 pm 
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Breand wrote:
showing up today it looks like. what a mess, but I knew it was coming. I don't think Boehner has come to terms with the fact that half of his members could give a shit what his marching orders are.

My impression (if this isn't too political for the non-politics forum) is that Boehner is trying to make deals and compromises while the Republican core wants to stand firm. Unfortunately, Obama can't agree with Boehner's deals and compromises, much less that of the Republican party as a whole, so it seems unlikely we'll avoid the cliff. Obama won't move right any more than the Republicans will move left.


Or, my personal theory, it's all shenanigans because both sides want to hit the cliff because both sides want to look like heroes next year. They can't get kudos for saving us from the disaster of the cliff if nobody actually feels it, so both sides want to make sure we feel it.

Basically they're like firefighters who want to set the building on fire so that they can rescue us.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 2:49 pm 
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Slamz wrote:

Or, my personal theory, it's all shenanigans because both sides want to hit the cliff because both sides want to look like heroes next year. They can't get kudos for saving us from the disaster of the cliff if nobody actually feels it, so both sides want to make sure we feel it.

Basically they're like firefighters who want to set the building on fire so that they can rescue us.


I think its shenanigans but for a slightly different reason. They dont want to be the hero's, but they want to avoid being called the bad guy. They both want to secretly let the cliff happen so that they dont have to cause the spending cuts or the tax increases. Its this "ambiguous cliff". Its sort of laughable that none of them are talking about that fact that they all agreed to this cliff. They act like its some sort of magic thing that just appeared. What a joke.

I would bet that if you could get a truth machine and stick it on most of congress and the president you find they want to cliff because then they have a rest button of the last 12 years. And all the action will be to give tax cuts and raise spending. Historically that is what motivates them. Both sides.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 3:08 pm 
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Slamz wrote:
Unfortunately, Obama can't agree with Boehner's deals and compromises, much less that of the Republican party as a whole, so it seems unlikely we'll avoid the cliff. Obama won't move right any more than the Republicans will move left.

We had a referendum a few weeks ago. Obama very explicitly ran on a platform of raising taxes on people earning over $250k, and the people voted him back in. He therefore has the people's mandate.

He has already compromised. He moved up to $400k. He's indicated he would go higher. He's included very substantial spending cuts.

Republicans (or at least the tea party) have made it clear they won't accept ANY tax increases. They are the problem. If you can't see this you really are in denial.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 3:13 pm 
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Oops, I just noticed this isn't the political forum, so ignore all that ;)

Although I think everyone that hangs out here is also on the political forums (unless we have a lot of lurkers).

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 3:21 pm 
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Grieve wrote:
Slamz wrote:
Unfortunately, Obama can't agree with Boehner's deals and compromises, much less that of the Republican party as a whole, so it seems unlikely we'll avoid the cliff. Obama won't move right any more than the Republicans will move left.

We had a referendum a few weeks ago. Obama very explicitly ran on a platform of raising taxes on people earning over $250k, and the people voted him back in. He therefore has the people's mandate.

He has already compromised. He moved up to $400k. He's indicated he would go higher. He's included very substantial spending cuts.

Republicans (or at least the tea party) have made it clear they won't accept ANY tax increases. They are the problem. If you can't see this you really are in denial.


I'm actually very disappointed in Obama moving on the 250 thing. But understand he need to compromise. It sounds like Boehner was ok with it, but they still had a spending cut breech (though pretty small over 10 years). But he could not get his party in line.

So the best thing for Obama and Boehner is let the cliff happen and then lower taxes on everyone making less then 250k...... I would like to see Obama give on the SS / medicare age limit in addition to the cost of living stuff. I think that needs to be done no matter what, might as well give Boehner a bone to take to his caucus.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 2:03 pm 
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I sold my TZA today for a slight loss. Obama sounds more and more like he is going to fold like he has every other time with some sort of a "small deal".

The stock market looks more and more like a trip to Las Vegas right now. i just have no prediction for what congress is going to do.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 4:03 pm 
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pretty happy with myself for timing my TNA sell properly. I knew when it came down to it, American political posturing was more important than the world economy. Will 12/31 be the largest drop day in 2012 if no deal is cut?


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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 4:18 pm 
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I'm not sure about it being a huge drop day - everyone seems resigned to us going over the cliff by now. I guess it depends how many people are still sitting on big gains they need to sell before cap gains go up.

Even if we do go over the cliff, it seems like things will be fixed fairly quickly in 2013. As I posted way back, then anything Republicans do with be a tax reduction, rather than a take hike.

I'm really hoping that Jan 2nd will be a huge up day, but I guess we'll have to see.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 6:07 pm 
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Well Im glad I sold TZA. Down 6% today.

Who knows what Monday will look like.

I'm am still very bullish once 1Q starts with the cliff / ceiling issue behind us. Overall economy looks solid and ready for a start.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 6:19 pm 
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Yeah, great day, especially for AAPL. Glad I held my TNA as well.

Of course, we'll have to see if those chuckleheads in Congress will actually pass the deal that's been agreed on. :) If not, could be straight back down... And even if they do, while it basically solves the fiscal cliff, it doesn't do much for the deficit, so there will be a lot more wrangling to come. Should be good for stocks in the short term, though. Lots of good things in there to keep people spending - payroll taxes stay the same for most, AMT fixed, unemployment benefits extended, etc.

Plus it looks like they are keeping capital gains at current levels, unless you earn $400k ($450k married) or more, in which case it goes up to 20%. Pretty tame...maybe all those people who sold to pay less taxes will get back in now.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 10:08 am 
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I sold my TNA pre-market at $68.24, for a 41% gain. It may well go a lot higher, but I didn't want to risk a "sell the news" scenario. I'll probably buy back if we correct (as people start to worry about the debt ceiling).

Hanging on to my Apple options for the time being - $548.81 right now, up about $38 in two days!

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 10:37 am 
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Nice trade. I'm very happy with my slight loss trade compared to what the last 2 trading days did to Tza. down 6% Monday and another 7% today.

I'm on the wrong side of the curve lately.

Fyi hearing some bad expectations on holiday retail numbers.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 11:48 am 
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Wishing I had turned my TNA sale right into AAPL when it was below $510!


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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 2:04 pm 
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Facebook is rocking today as well, up almost 6%. I sold some of my options, holding on to the rest.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 2:15 pm 
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One of my first forays into trading...wish I had a couple zeros added on the end:

Citigroup Inc. C 41.02 +1.46 (3.69%) 15.00 shares 303.69 cost basis 615.00 current value +311.31 +102.51%

Nice single day gainer for me:

HIMX 2.79 +0.39 (16.25%)


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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 6:14 pm 
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Nice one! I really should have stuck with the banks. I bought a bunch of Jan 2013 BAC $7.50 call options for 58 cents each on 12/28/2011. I sold them at $1.23, a nice profit, back in September. But as of today they are worth $4.50 each. :roll: Thousands of dollars missed out on...

Thinking of doing the same thing this year - Jan '14 $15 calls are 70 cents each...

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 7:11 pm 
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I bought that C in Feb 09 when the market was bottomed out. I also bought FAS at the same time, but again, as it was my early days of trading it was a small amount. But here it is today:

FAS 129.59 +9.59 (7.99%) 12.0143 895.07 cost basis 1,555.84 current value +660.77 +73.82%

And I have 5 shares of AAPL back when it was $375, but another 15 I bought around $600 =(


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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 8:46 pm 
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I pulled out of both BAC and APPL to early. I made money, but the gains after selling were pretty significant.

Sad thing on BAC is I bought some long term calls at $11 that I ended up losing almost the whole value on, but one moth later it hit 11. It was a very cheap call, so didn't lose a ton, but one month later would have made a ton....

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 5:21 pm 
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Grieve wrote:
I sold my TNA pre-market at $68.24, for a 41% gain.

TNA is $77.21 right now. :roll:

I wonder how long this run can last?

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 5:34 pm 
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I was seriously considering putting my cash into TZA but I'm getting close to contract on a house so I need the money available. AAPL is killing me with it bottoming out at this time. I will have to hold it for the next couple months and hope for a rebound. I'm not closing on the house until June 6th so I have time.


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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 7:55 pm 
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I wouldn't count on a rebound in 2 months, unless they announce something big. If your house depends on it, better to be cautious.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 1:00 am 
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Yea I think its early for a TZA. Even with Apple taking a dive (and does have a big impact on the markets) the trend is positive. Where is the top? Perhaps dow around 14500 which would be at its all time high mark. Seems reasonable that we will get there.

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 Post subject: Re: Do I Sell?
PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:04 pm 
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certainly reasonable. Even if it gets to 14500 it's still not really an all time high when you account for inflation.


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