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Do I Sell?
http://thepurge.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=16023
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Author:  Vanraw [ Mon Oct 05, 2015 7:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Do I Sell?

Grieve wrote:
Nice! I am an eternal optimist, so I still think we will end the year strong, maybe after the first rate hike.

Although feeling very good about the fruit company. http://fortune.com/2015/09/22/apple-car-analysts/


I am too. This is just the normal every October bump. Been waiting for it.

FYI I jumped back in buying SPXL triple leverage bull at 67. Up 13% today. Would have sold but broker notification didn't kick off.

Author:  Breand [ Fri Jan 15, 2016 12:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Do I Sell?

TNA time! I'm in at $42.20 a share.

Author:  Slamz [ Mon Jan 18, 2016 4:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Do I Sell?

Surprised there hasn't been more chatter about all this. So you're thinking we're about at the bottom? (TNA is the one that follows the market where TZA is opposite, right?)

Saw Japan markets were down a bit more with China holding about even Monday. Europe down a tad.

Long term I'm still thinking American stock has a long way to go down, with so much money invested in stocks because there was no reason to put it in anything interest based and eventually that's going to turn around. Still, its taken longer than I expected already and this is going to be a year of very slow interest increases.

Author:  Breand [ Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Do I Sell?

I don't think we are necessarily at the bottom, but at a place where I can catch a quick reactionary bump back up. I do have a broker friend who was saying that the guys on the floor see it as a bit of a relief because the market was so overbought. Like, this dive down was a good thing at this point because it may prevent a massive crash.

Author:  Grieve [ Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:27 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Do I Sell?

I'm not buying leveraged ETFs, because I have no idea where the bottom is. But I am fully invested. I figure no matter how low it goes, it will recover, just as it did (and then some) after 2008. So I'm keeping all my tech big guns like Apple, Google, Amazon, Netflix, etc. I believe they are long term winners. I have diversified into a few more defensive names like AT&T and McDonalds, though.

Seems like the weather (waiting for 2-3 feet of snow to drop on us later today) has finally turned oil around, at least for now, so hopefully this bounce will have some legs.

Author:  Vanraw [ Fri Jan 22, 2016 3:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Do I Sell?

Good entrance Breand. I went in early, so going to need a couple of bumps to break even... Oh well I killed on the last pull back.

Slamz, these TNA / TZA's are very short terms. Its market timing, which most will tell you is a fools game. But when you have these dramtic swings, there is always a bounce. Calling the bottom is hard though.

On the overall market, America is in pretty good shape. This feels like a normal correction to me. Keep in mind that oil prices being low is a really good thing. Its like an auto correction proccess. Everything becomes cheaper, with the exception of profits from big oil companies. Frankly I dont give shit about exon and the other oil companies holding on to the old world.....

My predictrion is that this is close to a bottom. China will not drive the USA into a recesssion, though China might go into one...... Minipulated markets.... We will now see a slow climb back above 17k for the ddow. ... But ive been wrong before.....

Author:  Breand [ Fri Jan 29, 2016 3:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Do I Sell?

I got out today with an 8% gain. Good enough for me! Bonus vacation funds!

Author:  Vanraw [ Sat May 07, 2016 10:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Do I Sell?

I hung on to the nighmare, and justr sold last week at 64 and change. I was kicking myself the whole time for not buying options or protecting my self. But now I'm happy Nice little profit.

Author:  Breand [ Thu Jul 14, 2016 10:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Do I Sell?

Today is the kinda day where you want to sell your entire portfolio off and wait for the next crash....

Author:  Vanraw [ Mon Jul 25, 2016 2:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Do I Sell?

Breand wrote:
Today is the kinda day where you want to sell your entire portfolio off and wait for the next crash....


Yea, I bought TZA aggressively again. There is nothing in the economy that tells me the market should be break all time highs.

Ive also, for the first time in decades, moved some 401k money out of investments and into cash funds. Time and gravity is on my side.

Author:  Breand [ Fri Dec 09, 2016 6:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Do I Sell?

Umm...wow. All I can say is, my 401k account thanks all you crazy blue collar workers who voted for Trump. The next 4 years of your continued suffering should do well for my shareholding ass.

Author:  Jakensama [ Sat Dec 10, 2016 12:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Do I Sell?

Breand wrote:
Umm...wow. All I can say is, my 401k account thanks all you crazy blue collar workers who voted for Trump. The next 4 years of your continued suffering should do well for my shareholding ass.


This.

Author:  Grieve [ Sat Jan 14, 2017 1:32 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Do I Sell?

I've taken advantage of it as much as anyone, but now I'm out. Mostly in cash, some gold. Think things are going to get ugly.

Author:  Breand [ Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Do I Sell?

Anyone finding this complete lack of volatility troubling? Like, when was the last time we had a decent sized downward cycle? I wonder how day traders are coping.

Author:  Breand [ Tue Oct 24, 2017 3:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Do I Sell?

This market is nuts. Something shady is going on and we are going to crash, big and hard soon. If not by December, I'll say Feb 2018 since Feb 09 was when it crashed hard last time.

Author:  Slamz [ Tue Oct 24, 2017 3:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Do I Sell?

I think it's still the perfect storm it has been for years now:
Interest rates suck. Too much fear to invest in Europe. China, North Korea and Japan are rattling sabers to some extent. Housing market is doing better but still has not recovered.

So ya got 50 million to invest somewhere? Stocks it is. The market can't crash if there's nowhere else to put your money.

I also wonder how much a nation that's turning towards stock based retirement accounts essentially just turns into a never-ending firehose of money that hardly changes based on the economy. It's not like people feel a bump and pull their money out of stocks -- most of them are in automated accounts and stay invested and keep putting money in so long as they are employed.

Next crash will have to come from a spike in unemployment or interest rate hikes.

Author:  Breand [ Wed Oct 25, 2017 5:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Do I Sell?

Slamz wrote:

I also wonder how much a nation that's turning towards stock based retirement accounts essentially just turns into a never-ending firehose of money that hardly changes based on the economy. It's not like people feel a bump and pull their money out of stocks -- most of them are in automated accounts and stay invested and keep putting money in so long as they are employed.


I was literally thinking about this over lunch but taking it a step further and was wondering what the implications would be of switching from fiat currency to stock currency. Like getting paid in a market ETF or something. Instead of being handed worthless paper, you'd be handed value in a company or group of companies. This would in turn keep the market healthy as there'd always be an influx of new capital into the markets every week.

I know there are certainly reasons why it wouldn't work, but it's interesting to think about nonetheless.

All I can say is that in this current economy, the only way you will get ahead is by being a shareholder. Thankfully I have been socking away a healthy portion of my income into a 401k since I was 21.

Author:  Grieve [ Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:50 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Do I Sell?

I have no doubt a crash is coming, the question is just when. I keep selling my stocks, only to buy back in a few weeks later when the market keeps grinding higher.

Needs a shoe to drop...strike on N Korea, a major WH incitement, spike in inflation or interest rates, etc. My concern is that when drop comes it will be sudden and dramatic and stocks will be down 20% before there is a chance to sell.

Author:  Breand [ Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Do I Sell?

It's probably why crypto is exploding right now. People are looking for a new vehicle to take advantage of volatility.

Author:  Vanraw [ Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Do I Sell?

Yea the market doesn't make a lot of sense right now. We are due a rescission, (for a couple years now) but the 2008 was such a huge economic correction that it stimulated a really good run. Economy seems a bit over heated to me. And real estate is back where it was, with people living on and depending on irrational equity gains.

Who knows when or how big, but we are definitely due a rescission. When it happens the speculation of 3.0 GDP growth will subside. However the tax cut will definitely delay it.

Predictions anyone? I would guess 4q18 or 1q19.

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