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 Post subject: Re: When to short 2013
PostPosted: Tue Mar 12, 2013 7:07 pm 
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Breand wrote:
That strategy I'm sure is a good one in a good market, but NYC environs are not recovering like the rest of the country.


It's pretty damn hot here, my neighbors across the street got 8 offers for their brownstone and had one of those bidding wars in the seller's favor... I can only hope I am that lucky when we decide it is time to pick up shop (but I rarely am, buy high sell low, thats my style).


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 Post subject: Re: When to short 2013
PostPosted: Tue Mar 12, 2013 9:15 pm 
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I would put no stock in the Zillow estimate. The only thing good about that site is the ability to search by map area.

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 Post subject: Re: When to short 2013
PostPosted: Wed Mar 13, 2013 3:41 pm 
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Yeah I didn't get it. They aren't even taking backups either, they'll put it back out to bid again to all those who expressed interest. Naturally hoping those people will put in higher bids yet again.

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 Post subject: Re: When to short 2013
PostPosted: Wed Mar 13, 2013 5:54 pm 
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Grieve wrote:
Now that we've thoroughly turned this into a housing thread... ;) Do you guys put much stock in Zillow when buying/selling? I paid quite a bit of attention to it when we were looking for our current house, but I'm getting a bit suspicious of it now - the zestimate for our house is a good $150k higher than I would expect it to be, and higher than bigger houses in our neighboorhood... I wonder if people (or more likely real estate agents) have figured out how to "game" it to make their houses looking more appealing?


I put next to no stock in Zestimates at all. They are saying my house is worth $325k, we have it on the market for $310 and all of the bids were are getting are like $265k-$275. I would also guess there is a way to game it.


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 Post subject: Re: When to short 2013
PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2013 1:03 pm 
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Vanraw wrote:
Do you see the Dow getting much over 15k?
Grieve wrote:
If the economy continues to improve, yeah, definitely can see 15k this year. And maybe a lot higher in the next couple years. Housing and banks will light the way...

Well now I'm wondering about 16k...

15538 just a couple of days ago, and we're not even halfway through the year yet. All depends on the fed at this point. As long as they don't start easing too soon (or make it look like they are going to), I think we're in for good times.

Need to continue the perfect storm...improving economy, but not improving so much as to spook the fed.

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 Post subject: Re: When to short 2013
PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2013 12:35 am 
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We are in for some sort of correction.I just don't know when.

I agree the future economic news is going to continue to improve. The thing that doesn't make sense is the markets run prior to improvement.

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 Post subject: Re: When to short 2013
PostPosted: Tue May 28, 2013 11:45 am 
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Vanraw wrote:
We are in for some sort of correction.I just don't know when.

I agree the future economic news is going to continue to improve. The thing that doesn't make sense is the markets run prior to improvement.


Well the market and bond rates are exploding upwards at the same time which is counter intuitive. Since I locked my 30 year at 3.375% a couple weeks ago, my same bank is now up to 3.75%. I can't imagine that is a good sign, because now bond rates are going crazy even as the Fed says they are still buying 80 billion a month. Could mean another housing crash down the line. If the Fed can't raise rates at some point because they are jumping up on their own, that is NOT good.


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 Post subject: Re: When to short 2013
PostPosted: Mon Jun 03, 2013 12:39 am 
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Breand wrote:
Well the market and bond rates are exploding upwards at the same time which is counter intuitive. Since I locked my 30 year at 3.375% a couple weeks ago, my same bank is now up to 3.75%. I can't imagine that is a good sign, because now bond rates are going crazy even as the Fed says they are still buying 80 billion a month. Could mean another housing crash down the line. If the Fed can't raise rates at some point because they are jumping up on their own, that is NOT good.


yea I agree. Safe haven is NOT Bonds. As interest rise, (and the Fed will act at some point) the bond market bubble is going to go bust. No way people will be hanging on to long term bonds once the rate goes up. It will never be this low again.

I really think we are in a big three bubble. Bonds and commodities for sure, and the stock market as a whole. The market has rushed way ahead of the recovery. Which is ok, but its to high for an economy that is still in recovery.

I can say Im glad I bought put options on the TZA I bought. I lost but no where near what it would have been.

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 Post subject: Re: When to short 2013
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:14 am 
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I am shorting the market now. Just jumped into TZA big. My net is the market is high, and that overall earning outlook will be soft. UPS and JPM are just the beginning of a flat summer....

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 Post subject: Re: When to short 2013
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2013 1:19 pm 
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I'm staying long. There will be corrections, and probably sooner than later, but I'm betting that the trend stays higher, thanks to the rotation from bonds to stocks. I think that's true regardless of earnings. My TNA is up 24.51% now, so getting frothy, but I'm sticking with it.

I am starting to consider selling a bunch of my Apple (a sign of the apocalypse, I know). There is just too much hate for the company right now. I'll wait 'til earnings and see what they say.

Question is what else to get into? I kind of like Tesla, even though it has a crazy P/E. That could be one to buy and hold for 10 years. I'm also kicking myself for not getting back into Netflix and Amazon (and maybe Google) sooner. Is it too late? Probably not, if I'm right about a rising tide stock market.

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 Post subject: Re: When to short 2013
PostPosted: Mon Jul 15, 2013 11:37 am 
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yeah I'm just looking for corrections. I don't see signs of a massive crash yet. But I am confident the market is over brought.

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 Post subject: Re: When to short 2013
PostPosted: Mon Jul 15, 2013 1:01 pm 
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Bernanke will be running his yapper Wednesday and Thursday in front of Congress, I'd expect a negative downturn to the market on his comments.


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 Post subject: Re: When to short 2013
PostPosted: Tue Jul 23, 2013 10:09 am 
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Vanraw wrote:
yeah I'm just looking for corrections. I don't see signs of a massive crash yet. But I am confident the market is over brought.

I sold all my TNA today - up over 31%, didn't want to get greedy. Hoping for a pullback so I can jump back in.

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 Post subject: Re: When to short 2013
PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 8:43 am 
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My TZA is back in the money. Still holding for some more corrections.

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 Post subject: Re: When to short 2013
PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 1:59 pm 
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Okay, you answered my question from the other thread. I sold all my TNA (which I'd gotten back into) a few days ago (good move), and also all my SLW silver miner (very bad move). I'm about 40% in cash right now, to see which way things go. Everywhere you go you see people predicting everything from a major pullback to an outright crash...which probably means we'll see new highs.

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 Post subject: Re: When to short 2013
PostPosted: Sat Aug 17, 2013 11:38 pm 
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My guess right now, is that next week we will see some more pull back, and then we will see the dow return to its highs. People are expecting a correction.

I also think we are4 going to see some sort of a End of September / beginning of October nasty pull back.

Not that the market makes sense right now.

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 Post subject: Re: When to short 2013
PostPosted: Sun Aug 18, 2013 2:37 pm 
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I think a longer correction now (August maybe through September), followed by new highs in the last 2-3 months of the year. Guess we'll see!

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 Post subject: Re: When to short 2013
PostPosted: Tue Aug 20, 2013 11:27 am 
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Grieve wrote:
I think a longer correction now (August maybe through September), followed by new highs in the last 2-3 months of the year. Guess we'll see!


yea I agree.

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 Post subject: Re: When to short 2013
PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 4:37 pm 
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gah, wish I snuck in a TNA buy right before the market closed...instead I was wasting my time in the political forum, lol.


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 Post subject: Re: When to short 2013
PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 4:44 pm 
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Still holding my TZA. Not sure how low it will go, but we almost always see a nice correction in Sept / Oct timeframe.

At this point I would be surprised if I own the TZA by week end. Then perhaps a TNA and then another short going into mid september october.

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 Post subject: Re: When to short 2013
PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 5:09 pm 
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Things were off today with the apparent looming certainty of an American attack in Syria.

I imagine where things go from there, stock-wise, depends on how much people think the region will get destabilized. A big mess that results in big oil price hikes will, I imagine, send us to new lows.


...and then I can buy more Netflix.

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 Post subject: Re: When to short 2013
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 12:36 am 
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More reasoning for not trusting the world economy Good write up from the CEO of Pimco. 4 reasons he is still worried. Of course note he makes money when money goes into bonds. So grain of salt...

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/20 ... worrywart/


Quote:
No. 1: Western economies are still struggling to generate robust economic growth and plenty of jobs. Too many countries, he notes, are being held back by outdated growth engines. He adds:

No. 2: Politicians have been remarkably passive in their responses. As a result, central banks have been left to do the heavy lifting. El-Erian notes the U.S. Congress can’t even deliver an annual budget — dream on, medium-term reforms — and the euro zone comes up with initiatives that don’t really tackle its high unemployment and ongoing financial crisis. He describes the result this way:

No. 3: Developing countries became the engine of global growth. And then created an unbalanced policy mix that threatens their own growth as well as financial stability.

No. 4: Those who caused the 2008 crisis haven’t been forced to change their ways.

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 Post subject: Re: When to short 2013
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 10:29 am 
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Number #2 is important. It certainly seems like Bernanke wants to leave office with QE3 gone and we know that Congress will not take up the slack. The housing market will potentially crumble again depending on how much rates are affected, which could send us spinning back into a recession. If a person is led to believe that his home is losing value again, there goes all of the consumer spending.


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 Post subject: Re: When to short 2013
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 2:22 pm 
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Yea agree. Coupled with talk of government shut down and debt ceilings, the conversation will turn to removing the mortgage tax deduction.

There are actually some potential bad things coming.

Syria...
Debt ceiling.....
Republicans shooting down the government to stop obamacare......
Tapering qe3....
Rising interest rates
Climbing oil prices

All of which can impact consumer confidence and market jitters.

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 Post subject: Re: When to short 2013
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 5:20 pm 
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Vanraw wrote:
Republicans shooting down the government to stop obamacare......

Take your whacky lib political ideas to the proper forum. :)

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