The Purge

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 13, 2013 11:32 pm 
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Joined: Sat May 10, 2003 6:48 pm
Posts: 9266
A lot of discussion out there right now on the bond bubble.

A couple of reasons why I am interested in this.

First there is still a lot of cash on the sidelines. That means Bonds and such.

2nd, The equity market doesn't make any sense to me right now. My gut says short this thing at 14500 which it is very close to reaching, but I have no reason to believe it will correct.

3rd, the fed will move to raise interest at some point. they will also stop QE3 and start to reverse it. The gauge seems to be unemployment. When that happens bond interest rates will go up so existing bonds prices drop because they are now under the interest currently offered and under pressure to sell.

I have no doubt that interest rates have to go to up, and I have no doubt that the fed will stop and reverse QE. When is the only question.


TYO and TMV are triple leveraged bear ETF's. Short term dangerous stuff but might be a interesting play in the future.

https://www.google.com/finance?q=tyo&ei ... HcmkqQGgOA
https://www.google.com/finance?q=tmv&ei ... G5TlqAH_XQ

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 14, 2013 12:54 pm 
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I think we are very, VERY far off from the fed raising interest rates. Like years off...2 at the least. Bonds are also weak right now as everyone is in equities, mortgage rates have jumped up a lot just in the past week (which sucks for me because it's too early for me to lock). So I definitely wouldn't throw the word "bubble" around. I think we would need a panic in equities for bonds to go into bubble territory.


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PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2013 2:05 pm 
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Been watching the bond market like a hawk the past month. Last Thursday was a multi year low, and my bank I'm obtaining our mortgage from actually went down to a 3.25% 30 year, but it's still a week too early for me to lock. Then the job numbers came out the next day which were very positive and the bond market exploded upwards. It's at 3.375% now and Im thinking might go back up to 3.5% tomorrow =( We need some bad European news stat!!


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