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 Post subject: IoT
PostPosted: Thu Apr 10, 2014 2:14 pm 
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So the mobile revolution (phones and tablets) is getting a bit long in the tooth. The easy money has probably already been made there. The question is, what is next?

I'm banking on The Internet of Things, or the idea of everyday objects becoming connected - cars, fridges, smoke detectors, medical devices, humans, etc. At some point companies at the forefront of that are going to explode, just like Apple, Samsung, Blackberry, etc did with mobile.

So today I took a large position in Splunk, actually my second largest position after Apple. They've been hit hard in the correction, down more than 50% since Feb. I think they are in a great position to be in the cutting edge - they currently do light switches, elevators, air conditioners, and so on. They are also in "big data", another buzzy area right now.

This time, unlike with Tesla (doh!), I'm going to stick with them and not be scared out of my position. I figure in 5 years they will either be worth $1000 a share, or zero...

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 Post subject: Re: IoT
PostPosted: Thu Apr 10, 2014 2:50 pm 
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The problem with investing in a lot of this house/building technology is that it requires a lot more effort to get involved than just buying a phone. I think this kind of stuff will phase in with new buildings or slowly as people upgrade things like elevators, but its a lot harder to get people to adopt things that require effort to install in their home (or a lot of money to pay someone to install)... shit, most people probably have a hard time changing light fixtures.

I think this stuff will be gaining steam, but I don't think it's going to be a dramatic explosion.

"The administration at Eglin Air Force Base uses Splunk to monitor usage of elevators, security doors, light switches, wall mounted thermostats, and air conditioners in their facilities and then analyze the collected data to determine usage patterns and identify when energy usage can be moderated"

Hmm, combined with google knowing everything about me this makes me care less about the NSA.... I for one welcome our new corporate overlords..


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 Post subject: Re: IoT
PostPosted: Thu Apr 10, 2014 3:57 pm 
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This guy seems to think they're a strong company but that the stock is still overvalued even after the dive:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2130553 ... perfection

I don't entirely grasp the company's fundamentals. At first I thought they were into home hardware but it appears they are purely into data analysis, which some home/office hardware uses.

Hardware-wise, I see Belkin trying to make inroads, but they're not exactly an up and coming mover and shaker, historically. (Interestingly, Belkin is a private company. No stock. Did not know.)

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 Post subject: Re: IoT
PostPosted: Fri Apr 11, 2014 12:47 pm 
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there needs to be a price drop in those products too. $300 for a Nest? Umm no thanks brah.


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 Post subject: Re: IoT
PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2014 11:50 am 
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Splunk is interesting software. We use it got log analysis and trending. Didn't realize they were into other arenas. I assume this is the same company.

I do agree that the original vision of the 1990s internet bubble is still in progress. Wired Fridges with auto ordering groceries, and watering systems that check the weather etc... is all a reality from a tech perspective. But I agree with Jake that this is a thing that will happen at a much slower rate that many think. And its already happening. Verizon and ATT both have home automation offerings. ATD has some interesting video security systems. For the most part these guys are using existing technology with some in house software.

I always ask my self, would I buy this product? A smart fridge with a scanner that orders groceries that suddenly appear at my door the next day? Yes. Would I pay 4k for a fridge I can buy for $1500 without "internet"? no. Would turning all my lights on and off, and locking my doors be cool? yes, do I need it enough to pay for it? no.

I would guess the best buy for this sort of thing will be in content, not the device. Devices are going to continue to drop in price, and the big guys are all over it. So honestly companies like Amazon are probably the real long term winners in the space, since they will profit from the content.




However.... I will say that there is a market coming related to the massive number of blue hairs coming. Things like home / health monitoring are going to be big successful services. this will play into wearable devices that a person could have that monitors vitals, coupled with home video. Also some sort of home based robotics is in the future. That might be 10 to 20 years from now though...

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 Post subject: Re: IoT
PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2014 3:29 pm 
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See, that's why you should invest in Splunk. Yes, there is no way to guess who is going to make the connected "Thing" that captures everyone's imagination and make that company (and investors) gazillionaires. But what all these things do is generate massive amounts of data, and Splunk processes that data ("Big Data") in a manageable and meaningful way.

For example, let's take smart watches. Who knows who is going to come out with the must-have device there? I mean, obviously it will be Apple, but for argument's sake let's say it isn't. All those watches with build in sensors and medical monitoring are going to transmit back a massive amount of data, and that data has to be processed and patterns and themes detected, which can be used to iterate to the next big thing. That's what Splunk does. Why bet on a particular company, when you can bet on the company that wins regardless? It's like Broadcom in the smartphone world. Their chips go in everyone's phones.

Google does the same thing with web sites. It takes that massive amount of unstructured data, and manages to find a way to let you discover what you from it. Splunk will be the Google of IoT.

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 Post subject: Re: IoT
PostPosted: Thu May 01, 2014 10:09 am 
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Is SPLUNK oversold here?

Seems like a really good place to jump in.

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 Post subject: Re: IoT
PostPosted: Thu May 01, 2014 6:11 pm 
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It's down about 7% from where I bought it. Which is a lot better than my Amazon and TNA...

Right now there seems to be a big shift in the market from momentum (high PE) and small cap stocks to large cap value. Until that changes, I'd probably hold off. Seems like a broad sentiment change.

Especially true of tech. Compare Google, Amazon, FB, and Twitter over the last few months to "old tech" names like Apple, IBM and Microsoft:


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 Post subject: Re: IoT
PostPosted: Fri May 02, 2014 1:26 am 
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Some interesting readings on a possible recession coming as well.

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