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 Post subject: Re: Buy Oil?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2015 6:02 pm 
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Slamz wrote:
My experience with leveraged silver ETFs suggests:
1) They are very risky. They seem to pretty consistently follow commodity prices DOWN but not necessarily UP. Reading suggests that they reflect price changes that occur during regular trading hours but not changes that occur outside of hours. e.g., if silver closes at 30 and opens at 35, this change won't be reflected in the leveraged ETF.

2) They lose value if you hold them long term, probably for the above reason. You should really be day trading them and trying to anticipate the daily moves, i.e., you are a wizard or a time traveler.

The NON-leveraged silver ETF seems to much more closely match the price of silver (ditto for gold). It's the leveraged one that's fubar.

I dunno if oil is the same though.


Any leveraged ETF is a risk play and should never be part of a long term portfolio.


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 Post subject: Re: Buy Oil?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2015 8:01 pm 
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Jakensama wrote:
Vanraw wrote:
You are the example of who they are hoping to buy more. I agree with you, there are alot more out there. however alot of people have also bought smaller cars, hybrids, electric, etc, as a result of the high prices. I think we will see a bump in usage, but my gut says it will be less than previous levels because of more effcient cars and such.


There has also been more of a trend to pull our heads out of the assess and start living closer to things rather than do the ridiculous commutes we are used to too. Not sure if it is widespread enough to counteract driving culture though.

One would hope we learned a lesson from high gas prices, but we didn't do it in the 70s so I can't imagine we wont see a bump again. But with mitigating factors and increasing production all around, the effect might be muted from an investment standpoint.

Additionally, while oil WILL go up eventually barring some mystical unicorn fart energy source just appearing tomorrow - investing on that alone might not be the best choice. While your money is sitting there waiting for oil to go back up significantly in 2, 3, 5 or 10 years, it could have been working for you and paying off better returns elsewhere.

If I did it I'd probably do an ERX and roll the dice, gamblings not fun without a higher risk/reward ratio.

Yea, I believe the life changes and changes in the automotive industry in general are here to stay for the most part. We use less gasoline for a reasons.

Not to get political, but it would be nice if they would go back to 100% gasoline and stop doing the E10 BS. Since gas is cheap(and may or may not become more expensive), the problems with E10 just aren't worth the supposed(I don't believe there really was any) savings from it.

If you stop using the 10% ethanol gas and go back to 100% gas, that right there would increase the gas requirements of the US(gas for cars) quite a bit(if every gallon now requires 10% more gas, that has to be a lot of gas), which I would think would raise the price of gas again. It would also increase MPG, as I've seen E10 drops your MPG by 3-4 %


On another note, those super expensive electric cars don't seem so economical when you're paying $1.50 a gallon in gas...

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 Post subject: Re: Buy Oil?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 9:45 am 
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Jakensama wrote:
You should probably dump apple before the watch flops this year..


I just read Apple got a patent for wearable cameras... Seeing as every cop will probably have to start wearing cameras and as more and more people go to monitoring their daily life, this might be enough to override the doom that could be the Apple watch.

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 Post subject: Re: Buy Oil?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 10:11 am 
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But what kind of company would try to patent something that has already existed for years??


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 Post subject: Re: Buy Oil?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 11:19 am 
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umm. The same company that evidently received a patent for something that has been available for years. I read that GoPro's stock took a hit because of it.

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 Post subject: Re: Buy Oil?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:53 pm 
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TinStar wrote:
umm. The same company that evidently received a patent for something that has been available for years. I read that GoPro's stock took a hit because of it.

Will get thrown out or there's some very specific implementation of their patent that doesn't apply to what everyone else has been doing, is my bet.

("Patent for a Wearable Device that Only Works With Apple Brand Players Saved in Apple Brand Format Using Apple Brand Headband Charged by 3 Double-Apple Batteries and Can Only Be Interfaced With Via iTunes.")

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 Post subject: Re: Buy Oil?
PostPosted: Sat Jan 17, 2015 8:59 pm 
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Jakensama wrote:
You should probably dump apple before the watch flops this year..

Didn't you last tell me to dump when it was about half the price is now...?

We'll see about the watch. I'm planning to buy one.

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Last edited by Grieve on Sat Jan 17, 2015 9:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Buy Oil?
PostPosted: Sat Jan 17, 2015 9:01 pm 
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Another reason to buy the oil companies rather than USO:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cruel-oil-market-math-conspiring-061740378.html

Quote:
Consider these numbers. From 2009 to 2012, crude prices soared twofold, yet, because contango conditions existed then too, the biggest U.S. oil fund gained less than 1 percent over that time.

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 Post subject: Re: Buy Oil?
PostPosted: Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:59 am 
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Grieve wrote:
Didn't you last tell me to dump when it was about half the price is now...?


Don't think so, I just correctly bet that google would hit a benchmark first.

Quote:
We'll see about the watch. I'm planning to buy one.


Of course you are, its a product with a small i in front of it. ;) I still can't believe that something expensive and with such limited utility as a watch is going to catch on, but I should know better than to count out Apples marketing department at this point. And I guess as someone pointed out, if even 5% of apple fanbois buy it it will be pretty profitable.


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