So wha are you 2014 guesses?

[Vanraw]

What are your guesses for 2014 to the following questions.


How low will this correction go?
DOW - 14900
S&P - 1700

Where will the market be at mid point? (End of June)
DOW - 15800
S&P - 1800

Where will the market be December 31 2014?
DOW - 15800
S&P - 1800

Will there be another correction in 2014 besides this one?
Yes in October / End of September. But it will bounce back by the end of the year.

What great stocks will be moving in 2014?
I have no major positive thoughts on any stock right now.

[Grieve]

I'll play!

How low will this correction go?
DOW - 14880
S&P - 1690

Where will the market be at mid point? (End of June)
DOW - 17263
S&P - 1975

Where will the market be December 31 2014?
DOW - 18085
S&P - 2069

Will there be another correction in 2014 besides this one?
Yes, possibly in the first half of the year, otherwise in the fall

What great stocks will be moving in 2014?
You'll be shocked to hear I think AAPL will be up at least 20% ($660+)
I think NKE will do well, with the World Cup this year
I think TWTR will recover very nicely from the drop today
I think C and BAC will both do well

[Vanraw]

wow S&P 2k!

I like the way you think! or the drugs you take

[Grieve]

It's just a 10% rise, way below the almost 30% rise last year. Since 2008 the S&P has been up at least 12% every year except 2011. You could say we're due for a fall, but after this weak patch now I think earnings will go higher.

Incidentally, remember after 2008 the "new normal" was supposed to be small to no gains, with buy and hold dead? Five year annualized returns are 17.94%, and even 10 year are 7.40%. Didn't pay to listen to the naysayers.

[Vanraw]

Incidentally, remember after 2008 the "new normal" was supposed to be small to no gains, with buy and hold dead? Five year annualized returns are 17.94%, and even 10 year are 7.40%. Didn't pay to listen to the naysayers.

Well the point of the "buy and hold" dead isn't about calculating gains from when the market dumped but from before it dumped. If you bought the S&P in Jan 2000 and held it for 10 years, and sold it in Jan 2010 you would have lost 21%. Even if you had the magical foresight to hold it to day, and sold now, you would by up 20% for a 14 year investment. Or right around 2% minus fees and taxes. 14 years flat.

The point is Buy and Hold is not the safe model and just as risky as trying to pick daily highs and lows. The market makers like buy and hold because it fill there coffers with play money and fees.

By the way, that is where we put my sons money from an accident he had in the late 90s. It was a conservatorship and court approved invested in "safe" mutual funds bought in 2000. After 14 years it has only been "in the money" 3 times, and barely. The last monthly statement showed after 14 years he now has gained a whooping 15.9%.

Rule of thumb of the Buy and holds is that you should double your money about every 8 years. That only works if you buy in on a market low.

[Grieve]

What are your guesses for 2014 to the following questions.

Neither of us did very well on the correction, but I did pretty good on the mid-point! Even closer to my targets as of today.

How low will this correction go?
DOW - Maul 14900, Grieve 14880, Actual 15440
S&P - Maul 1700, Grieve 1690, Actual 1741

Where will the market be at mid point? (End of June)
DOW - Maul 15800, Grieve 17263, Actual 16826
S&P - Maul 1800, Grieve 1975, Actual 1960

Where will the market be December 31 2014?
DOW - 15800
S&P - 1800

You'll be shocked to hear I think AAPL will be up at least 20% ($660+)

Pretty much nailed this - split-adjusted price as of now is $658.21