When to short 2013

[Jakensama]

That strategy I'm sure is a good one in a good market, but NYC environs are not recovering like the rest of the country.

It's pretty damn hot here, my neighbors across the street got 8 offers for their brownstone and had one of those bidding wars in the seller's favor... I can only hope I am that lucky when we decide it is time to pick up shop (but I rarely am, buy high sell low, thats my style).

[Slamz]

I would put no stock in the Zillow estimate. The only thing good about that site is the ability to search by map area.

[OrsunVZ]

Yeah I didn't get it. They aren't even taking backups either, they'll put it back out to bid again to all those who expressed interest. Naturally hoping those people will put in higher bids yet again.

[Breand]

Now that we've thoroughly turned this into a housing thread... Do you guys put much stock in Zillow when buying/selling? I paid quite a bit of attention to it when we were looking for our current house, but I'm getting a bit suspicious of it now - the zestimate for our house is a good $150k higher than I would expect it to be, and higher than bigger houses in our neighboorhood... I wonder if people (or more likely real estate agents) have figured out how to "game" it to make their houses looking more appealing?

I put next to no stock in Zestimates at all. They are saying my house is worth $325k, we have it on the market for $310 and all of the bids were are getting are like $265k-$275. I would also guess there is a way to game it.

[Grieve]

Do you see the Dow getting much over 15k?

If the economy continues to improve, yeah, definitely can see 15k this year. And maybe a lot higher in the next couple years. Housing and banks will light the way...

Well now I'm wondering about 16k...

15538 just a couple of days ago, and we're not even halfway through the year yet. All depends on the fed at this point. As long as they don't start easing too soon (or make it look like they are going to), I think we're in for good times.

Need to continue the perfect storm...improving economy, but not improving so much as to spook the fed.

[Vanraw]

We are in for some sort of correction.I just don't know when.

I agree the future economic news is going to continue to improve. The thing that doesn't make sense is the markets run prior to improvement.

[Breand]

We are in for some sort of correction.I just don't know when.

I agree the future economic news is going to continue to improve. The thing that doesn't make sense is the markets run prior to improvement.

Well the market and bond rates are exploding upwards at the same time which is counter intuitive. Since I locked my 30 year at 3.375% a couple weeks ago, my same bank is now up to 3.75%. I can't imagine that is a good sign, because now bond rates are going crazy even as the Fed says they are still buying 80 billion a month. Could mean another housing crash down the line. If the Fed can't raise rates at some point because they are jumping up on their own, that is NOT good.

[Vanraw]

Well the market and bond rates are exploding upwards at the same time which is counter intuitive. Since I locked my 30 year at 3.375% a couple weeks ago, my same bank is now up to 3.75%. I can't imagine that is a good sign, because now bond rates are going crazy even as the Fed says they are still buying 80 billion a month. Could mean another housing crash down the line. If the Fed can't raise rates at some point because they are jumping up on their own, that is NOT good.

yea I agree. Safe haven is NOT Bonds. As interest rise, (and the Fed will act at some point) the bond market bubble is going to go bust. No way people will be hanging on to long term bonds once the rate goes up. It will never be this low again.

I really think we are in a big three bubble. Bonds and commodities for sure, and the stock market as a whole. The market has rushed way ahead of the recovery. Which is ok, but its to high for an economy that is still in recovery.

I can say Im glad I bought put options on the TZA I bought. I lost but no where near what it would have been.

[Vanraw]

I am shorting the market now. Just jumped into TZA big. My net is the market is high, and that overall earning outlook will be soft. UPS and JPM are just the beginning of a flat summer....

[Grieve]

I'm staying long. There will be corrections, and probably sooner than later, but I'm betting that the trend stays higher, thanks to the rotation from bonds to stocks. I think that's true regardless of earnings. My TNA is up 24.51% now, so getting frothy, but I'm sticking with it.

I am starting to consider selling a bunch of my Apple (a sign of the apocalypse, I know). There is just too much hate for the company right now. I'll wait 'til earnings and see what they say.

Question is what else to get into? I kind of like Tesla, even though it has a crazy P/E. That could be one to buy and hold for 10 years. I'm also kicking myself for not getting back into Netflix and Amazon (and maybe Google) sooner. Is it too late? Probably not, if I'm right about a rising tide stock market.

[Vanraw]

yeah I'm just looking for corrections. I don't see signs of a massive crash yet. But I am confident the market is over brought.

[Breand]

Bernanke will be running his yapper Wednesday and Thursday in front of Congress, I'd expect a negative downturn to the market on his comments.

[Grieve]

yeah I'm just looking for corrections. I don't see signs of a massive crash yet. But I am confident the market is over brought.

I sold all my TNA today - up over 31%, didn't want to get greedy. Hoping for a pullback so I can jump back in.

[Vanraw]

My TZA is back in the money. Still holding for some more corrections.

[Grieve]

Okay, you answered my question from the other thread. I sold all my TNA (which I'd gotten back into) a few days ago (good move), and also all my SLW silver miner (very bad move). I'm about 40% in cash right now, to see which way things go. Everywhere you go you see people predicting everything from a major pullback to an outright crash...which probably means we'll see new highs.

[Vanraw]

My guess right now, is that next week we will see some more pull back, and then we will see the dow return to its highs. People are expecting a correction.

I also think we are4 going to see some sort of a End of September / beginning of October nasty pull back.

Not that the market makes sense right now.

[Grieve]

I think a longer correction now (August maybe through September), followed by new highs in the last 2-3 months of the year. Guess we'll see!

[Vanraw]

I think a longer correction now (August maybe through September), followed by new highs in the last 2-3 months of the year. Guess we'll see!

yea I agree.

[Breand]

gah, wish I snuck in a TNA buy right before the market closed...instead I was wasting my time in the political forum, lol.

[Vanraw]

Still holding my TZA. Not sure how low it will go, but we almost always see a nice correction in Sept / Oct timeframe.

At this point I would be surprised if I own the TZA by week end. Then perhaps a TNA and then another short going into mid september october.

[Slamz]

Things were off today with the apparent looming certainty of an American attack in Syria.

I imagine where things go from there, stock-wise, depends on how much people think the region will get destabilized. A big mess that results in big oil price hikes will, I imagine, send us to new lows.


...and then I can buy more Netflix.

[Vanraw]

More reasoning for not trusting the world economy Good write up from the CEO of Pimco. 4 reasons he is still worried. Of course note he makes money when money goes into bonds. So grain of salt...

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/201...worrywart/

No. 1: Western economies are still struggling to generate robust economic growth and plenty of jobs. Too many countries, he notes, are being held back by outdated growth engines. He adds:

No. 2: Politicians have been remarkably passive in their responses. As a result, central banks have been left to do the heavy lifting. El-Erian notes the U.S. Congress can’t even deliver an annual budget — dream on, medium-term reforms — and the euro zone comes up with initiatives that don’t really tackle its high unemployment and ongoing financial crisis. He describes the result this way:

No. 3: Developing countries became the engine of global growth. And then created an unbalanced policy mix that threatens their own growth as well as financial stability.

No. 4: Those who caused the 2008 crisis haven’t been forced to change their ways.

[Breand]

Number #2 is important. It certainly seems like Bernanke wants to leave office with QE3 gone and we know that Congress will not take up the slack. The housing market will potentially crumble again depending on how much rates are affected, which could send us spinning back into a recession. If a person is led to believe that his home is losing value again, there goes all of the consumer spending.

[Vanraw]

Yea agree. Coupled with talk of government shut down and debt ceilings, the conversation will turn to removing the mortgage tax deduction.

There are actually some potential bad things coming.

Syria...
Debt ceiling.....
Republicans shooting down the government to stop obamacare......
Tapering qe3....
Rising interest rates
Climbing oil prices

All of which can impact consumer confidence and market jitters.

[Zirak]

Republicans shooting down the government to stop obamacare......

Take your whacky lib political ideas to the proper forum.