10-21-2010, 11:27 AM
Vanraw Wrote:On your comment though, I understand the aspect of seasonal peaks and drops, but I dont really see that reflected in transport stock prices. Meaning that quarterly earning estimates take into account seasonal down turns???
Part of me wants to hold this until $50ish.
Quarterly statements or the premise of the statements can really impact stock price for transportation companies.
For example; a transporation companies success is driven by revenue not invention or products like other industries. Ones faith in the success of a carrier can only be translated at wall street by revenue and market share. Therefore it is subject to wider swings in price based on those revenues.
Lets say for example your price is being driven by the hope that your carrier is expected to make large gains in market share. It may prove that they have utterly failed to reach those expectations. We will know that for sure in January.
If the carrier has to make adjustments in December for large drops in revenue that will get out as well and therefore drop the stock price.
What I am saying is even if the carrier is doing well these kinds of drops are going to happen naturally. That means in a nut shell I am pretty confident that it will not be to long before your price drops and will remain on the low until mid year 2011.
If you hang onto the stock much beyond the end of this quarter you are going to be hanging on to it until next year.
Vllad