11-01-2011, 12:09 PM
My take:
If there is a referendum in Greece, the markets are screwed. The Greek people will vote "no". Greece will default and be kicked out of the Euro. Domino effect will ensue.
However, I don't think there will be a referendum. The prime minister will back down, or he'll be kicked out.
As for the US, a double dip recession seems to be off the cards, even if unemployment isn't budging and growth isn't good. And corporate profits are great.
So...I think markets go up, unless the referendum (which will take weeks or months) goes ahead. But in the short term...could well be down some more. And China is certainly a wildcard, but I think they'd do fine. Smarter people are in charge there than in the US or Europe. In troubles times, democracy and a multi-party system can sometimes be more of a cross than a crutch.
I say S&P at 1400 before the year is out.
If there is a referendum in Greece, the markets are screwed. The Greek people will vote "no". Greece will default and be kicked out of the Euro. Domino effect will ensue.
However, I don't think there will be a referendum. The prime minister will back down, or he'll be kicked out.
As for the US, a double dip recession seems to be off the cards, even if unemployment isn't budging and growth isn't good. And corporate profits are great.
So...I think markets go up, unless the referendum (which will take weeks or months) goes ahead. But in the short term...could well be down some more. And China is certainly a wildcard, but I think they'd do fine. Smarter people are in charge there than in the US or Europe. In troubles times, democracy and a multi-party system can sometimes be more of a cross than a crutch.
I say S&P at 1400 before the year is out.
Ex SWG, L2, CoH, Wow, and War
Currently PvPing in the stock market
Currently PvPing in the stock market