03-06-2012, 10:59 AM
With the exception of a couple very long trades, I have been moving away from individual equities. The main reason is the ability for individuals to comIt fraud, which is never ever caught before the damage is done. Bottom line is our stock market is based on bubbles and speculation since the late 90s.
Oil is a great example of what is wrong. It used to be that 80% of future contracts were users running businesses that require oil. Now its 20% with 80% speculation trades. I think this Is what the market is as well.
So my strategy is short trades on over all market conditions and macro level news. Greece is still in the picture but not moving the market. But if Greece defaults, look Out!! Because there will be a domino effect. Just not as bad as 12 months ago.
The holy grail of having a historical trend chart predict the future has never been obtained. In hind sight, yes someone can always find a chart that predicted the future. But it rarly stands up to other drastic conditions. As a wise man once said, even a blind squirrel finds an occasional nut.
So when I say macro events, I mean things like oil right now. I have no doubt that gasoline will hit close to 5 a gallon this summer. The speculators think this as well. So a safe short term bet is gas. My strategy is to jump in and set a profit goal, along with bracketed conditional stops. When the profit hits, I get out. Even if I lose and the price goes up another 50%, I'm happy with my 20.
Oil is a great example of what is wrong. It used to be that 80% of future contracts were users running businesses that require oil. Now its 20% with 80% speculation trades. I think this Is what the market is as well.
So my strategy is short trades on over all market conditions and macro level news. Greece is still in the picture but not moving the market. But if Greece defaults, look Out!! Because there will be a domino effect. Just not as bad as 12 months ago.
The holy grail of having a historical trend chart predict the future has never been obtained. In hind sight, yes someone can always find a chart that predicted the future. But it rarly stands up to other drastic conditions. As a wise man once said, even a blind squirrel finds an occasional nut.
So when I say macro events, I mean things like oil right now. I have no doubt that gasoline will hit close to 5 a gallon this summer. The speculators think this as well. So a safe short term bet is gas. My strategy is to jump in and set a profit goal, along with bracketed conditional stops. When the profit hits, I get out. Even if I lose and the price goes up another 50%, I'm happy with my 20.
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi
![[Image: maull2.gif]](http://bengtel.com/maull2.gif)
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi