Where is the bottom?

[Vanraw]

Trust your gut! 163,000! Of course the market could still give up it's gains by the end of the day...

Yea no shit. 7.5% pop on TNA. On the positive front, I sold my TZA at the top, which is by market standards pretty lucky


So now Im back at the "what will the over all market do from here"?

Some good signs.

1. Housing prices have shown a consecutive increase (first time since 2008).

2. Employment levels are now leaving the seasonal slow downs and will show growth to the end of the year.

3. Some of the shipping data, (which is a leading indicator) looks good. (note I need to dig into this more because UPS did not look good).


Some bad signs.

1. Historically (recent) we have a 3Q correction, followed by a strong move to the end of the year, and the first couple of months. I dont think we have had the "correction" yet.

2. My gut is that the dow cap is somewhere around 13k to 14k. We are hovering at the 13k mark.

3. Employment numbers were ok, because they beat expectations but they are not great. WE will have a seasonal pick up now, but I dont think we are going to see anything earth shattering.

4. Many corporations have missed on revenue. They are making numbers, but you cant cut spending your self into growth.



So my little macro prediction is, We have not seen the 3Q correction yet (some think we have). When we do it will be a great buying opportunity.