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#27
I think there are two main factors to consider:

* Most people don't like depth. The people who analyze MMORPG combat logs are to nerds as nerds are to regular people. I would wager that 80% of MMORPG players don't even visit forums on any regular basis, much less read about or participate in detailed combat analysis. If you make a game where that level of detail is required then you're building a niche game that most people won't like.

* Any combat system, regardless of depth, risks becoming too predictable once players learn the ropes.

Imagine, say, Magic the Gathering if you were able to simply pick cards out of your deck rather than having to take the top card from a shuffled deck. The depth and complexity of interactions between cards is still there but I think it would very quickly become predictable and boring without the element of randomness. We both know you have a Northern Paladin in there somewhere but I can still try a trick, betting you don't have that card yet, because of randomness.

Kinda like Vllad just said, randomness lets you "take chances".

Randomness isn't good for competitive tournament play -- "who's the best" in a single elimination match -- but I think it makes games more intense and fun in the long run. Over the course of 100 fights, "who's the best" will incorporate who can react to the unexpected as much as it measures who understands the basic mechanics.
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