12-15-2012, 11:47 AM
Hrmmm...well as some of you may have noticed, I'm something of an Apple perma-bull. And I've looked at this recent sell-off as the buying opportunity of a lifetime. All the things it has been based on (map gate, tax selling, growth fears, competition) I've had no problem dismissing as FUD.
However...today for the first time I'm getting my first nagging doubts, thanks to Walmart. They just started selling the iPhone 5 for $127. That's insane. Unless recently every store was sold out. I can't imagine why Apple would let them do that, but Walmart says they partnered with Apple on the deal. Is Walmart eating the loss to get people into their store? Or is Apple reducing prices because of falling demand? Whichever, if I'm having doubts, I know that means a lot of other people will be too. Which I think means a sell-off next week (especially if analysts downgrade too, which seems likely). Could drop to the mid $400s, maybe lower.
Of course, I'm still not selling.
Gonna ride it out until Q1 earnings. I expect them to blow out revenue, maybe hitting $58 billion (they guided to $52b, street is looking for $54.56). Their previous highest quarterly revenue (also highest for any tech company ever) was $46b last January. I think gross margin/profits may be light, though. They guided to $11.75, street is looking for $13.31. Anything in the 12s would cause a selloff.
What really could be worrying is the guidance for Q2. Street is looking for $47.5b and $12.36. I have a feeling they will guide to something like $40b and $8.00. That would be bad. Might make me get out.
Still hoping for a big rally at the start of the year, though, once this capital gains craziness is done.
However...today for the first time I'm getting my first nagging doubts, thanks to Walmart. They just started selling the iPhone 5 for $127. That's insane. Unless recently every store was sold out. I can't imagine why Apple would let them do that, but Walmart says they partnered with Apple on the deal. Is Walmart eating the loss to get people into their store? Or is Apple reducing prices because of falling demand? Whichever, if I'm having doubts, I know that means a lot of other people will be too. Which I think means a sell-off next week (especially if analysts downgrade too, which seems likely). Could drop to the mid $400s, maybe lower.
Of course, I'm still not selling.
Gonna ride it out until Q1 earnings. I expect them to blow out revenue, maybe hitting $58 billion (they guided to $52b, street is looking for $54.56). Their previous highest quarterly revenue (also highest for any tech company ever) was $46b last January. I think gross margin/profits may be light, though. They guided to $11.75, street is looking for $13.31. Anything in the 12s would cause a selloff.What really could be worrying is the guidance for Q2. Street is looking for $47.5b and $12.36. I have a feeling they will guide to something like $40b and $8.00. That would be bad. Might make me get out.
Still hoping for a big rally at the start of the year, though, once this capital gains craziness is done.
Ex SWG, L2, CoH, Wow, and War
Currently PvPing in the stock market
Currently PvPing in the stock market