So wha are you 2014 guesses?

[Vanraw]

Incidentally, remember after 2008 the "new normal" was supposed to be small to no gains, with buy and hold dead? Five year annualized returns are 17.94%, and even 10 year are 7.40%. Didn't pay to listen to the naysayers.

Well the point of the "buy and hold" dead isn't about calculating gains from when the market dumped but from before it dumped. If you bought the S&P in Jan 2000 and held it for 10 years, and sold it in Jan 2010 you would have lost 21%. Even if you had the magical foresight to hold it to day, and sold now, you would by up 20% for a 14 year investment. Or right around 2% minus fees and taxes. 14 years flat.

The point is Buy and Hold is not the safe model and just as risky as trying to pick daily highs and lows. The market makers like buy and hold because it fill there coffers with play money and fees.

By the way, that is where we put my sons money from an accident he had in the late 90s. It was a conservatorship and court approved invested in "safe" mutual funds bought in 2000. After 14 years it has only been "in the money" 3 times, and barely. The last monthly statement showed after 14 years he now has gained a whooping 15.9%.

Rule of thumb of the Buy and holds is that you should double your money about every 8 years. That only works if you buy in on a market low.