07-23-2009, 03:43 PM
Good point Maull and O. You are right that people are not restocking and burning through their inventories however in the last 8 or 9 years people have been eliminating inventories altogether.
The base DC model of the retailers of 30 years ago is dead. People in general no longer need DC's and the cost of keeping them have grown beyond their use. People ship from manufacturer to store now. Well... not everyone so my statement is more general then actual fact.
My question about those people in the know Orsun is do they really know anything at all? Every year the peak months are Sept to November. Those months are always the strongest. Saying things will pick up in September is like saying the Sun will rise tomorrow. The question is how much will they pick up and by how much? Those good months have to cover for the last 5 horrible months.
Granted my concerns are premature until we get through August but if the numbers continue like they are even a really good peak won't keep us from a negative GNP.
By the way I would like to debate your take on Demand showing the signs first on recovery vs. Supply. That would be interesting however that is another subject.
Vllad
The base DC model of the retailers of 30 years ago is dead. People in general no longer need DC's and the cost of keeping them have grown beyond their use. People ship from manufacturer to store now. Well... not everyone so my statement is more general then actual fact.
My question about those people in the know Orsun is do they really know anything at all? Every year the peak months are Sept to November. Those months are always the strongest. Saying things will pick up in September is like saying the Sun will rise tomorrow. The question is how much will they pick up and by how much? Those good months have to cover for the last 5 horrible months.
Granted my concerns are premature until we get through August but if the numbers continue like they are even a really good peak won't keep us from a negative GNP.
By the way I would like to debate your take on Demand showing the signs first on recovery vs. Supply. That would be interesting however that is another subject.
Vllad