Apple

[Vllad]

Vllad, I've heard many times that Apple are cheap, miserly even. Isn't that an attribute you want in a company you are investing in?

Don't get me wrong it most certainly is a great attribute (unless you are one of their vendors) and the primary reason they are where they are. What I am saying is they went wayyyy cheap to get where they are. You can only go so far doing that. Eventually competitors are either going to start doing the same thing or they will die.

Granted if their competitors die their market share should increase considerably.


The point I am making is from here on out it won't be what Apple does that increase or decreases market share. Their market share size will be primarily based on what their competitors, not what Apple does.

Well... short of some new revolutionary toy that we can't forsee.



Vllad

[Breand]

tablets are that toy. Just like the MP3 player, everyone will have one. And Apple has very good placement in that market.

[Grieve]

Agree, and I think more "toys" are on the way, possibly an Apple-branded TV next.

And calling tablets "toys" is not really accurate. They are taking off in business in a big way. I keep going to meetings in which execs are toting their iPads around, and amongst sales people they are ubiquitous. Also seeing them turn up in hospitals, doctor's offices, schools, etc.

When your surgeon is studying your x-rays on his iPad before surgery, calling it a "toy" really goes out the window. No more a toy than your work PC or laptop, on which you can also play games and surf the net.

And speaking of which, macs are going gangbusters, while PCs are in decline. When I heard the VP of my group talking about "the post PC era" at an all hands recently, I knew we were in for a sea change.

[Vanraw]

....
And speaking of which, macs are going gangbusters, while PCs are in decline. When I heard the VP of my group talking about "the post PC era" at an all hands recently, I knew we were in for a sea change.

Just to be clear, when most marketing dev teams talk about "post PC" era today they are talking about personnel computers being replaced with things like smart phones, and such. PC's being any desktop / laptop like device, MAC or Windows device.

There is more power in my android then a PC 5 to 10 years ago, and the trend will continue. Also cloud computing plays into this since the idea is that anything that needs a HD will be on the cloud. So things like Word, and excel etc, will be pay to use on the cloud.

I do think this is a viable trend. In fact the trend seems to be to have a docking station in your office, and you just plug your "phone" into it and you have a full monitor / key board etc.

I agree that Apple has a good leg up in this space, but I can tell you from practical personal usage, the iPhone / iPad, as well as the Android have a long way to go in the enterprise space. Blackberry, (though a shrinking market) is the only company that "gets" the enterprise right now. But they dont get the toy. And people, executives, are buying toy's.

I can sit on my couch and do 100% of my job with the right blackberry, and a BES implemented in the enterprise along with the VOIP service my company sells. Hell no one can even tell im on my couch, as opposed to in teh office. I have a tried the iphone and now am using a droid 2 /w keyboard, using a enterprise server application called "Good" that is trying to compete with Black Berry BES. Its not even close. Android and iphone dont get enterprise yet. If I had to rank who gets it, it would be in this order.

Blackberry
Microsoft
Android
Apple

The main reason Apple is last is because they dont get the need for a keyboard / swipe technology. And they are way behind in voice recognition. Android's voice recognition is impressive.

I agree that there are some strong usage markets for the "Pad" market in business with custom software. Hospitals, insurance claims, to name a few. But I would say from an over all sale's perspective this would be a low minority right now, compared to the couch browser. Dont get me wrong, its a great home / residential device, but apple doesnt have the enterprise yet. Perhaps they dont want it.

As for the "next big thing". My vote will be flexible electronic paper (ie Minority report). Companies were making some serious strides in this space a couple years ago.

[Slamz]

Just to be clear, when most marketing dev teams talk about "post PC" era today they are talking about personnel computers being replaced with things like smart phones, and such. PC's being any desktop / laptop like device, MAC or Windows device.

That should be inevitable if only in the sense that at some point there will be nothing you need to do that requires more power than a handheld can offer.

Not true for gamers who like eye candy. We still enjoy our gigantic, power sucking, 500 degree nVidia cards that can accurately display the effects of lighting and shadows on the nose hairs of avatars from a half mile away but I've never been sure how resilient that market is.

The real crossover for us will be the release of full blown games which, incidentally, run on a tablet. e.g., WOW 2 lets you play on your PC or your tablet and it's the exact same game in both cases, with perhaps the PC version just having some better graphics options. When it gets to that point, gamers will start wondering if it's worth upgrading their desktop or just making the switch to tablet/handheld/docking station.


I don't see Apple doing this, though, because they are bitches. They are too controlling over what you can do with their hardware. I foresee Android stomping them long term because Android based tablets will end up supporting docking stations, USB hardware, Logitech mice and keyboards and all the other goodies while Apple still clings desperately to their own brand.


Basically I'll switch from a desktop to a tablet full time when I can take my desktop, throw it in the dumpster, put a docking station down, plug all my CURRENT stuff into it and go as if nothing had changed. It uses my Logitech headset. It uses my Logitech mouse and standard keyboard and G13 game pad, etc. Apple will never do this. At best it would be my Apple headset, my Apple mouse and my Apple keyboard and 3 games, not counting Photoshop. And no Apple gamepad because Apple doesn't believe in things having more buttons.

[Zirak]

People have been predicting the death of the desktop for the last 10 to 15 years and it hasn't happened yet. I for one have no interest in running applications from 'the cloud'. It reeks of application servers which I despise. My preference is and will always be to have software installed on my local machine from media that I can hold in my hot little hands. I have stuck my toe into the world of Steam and software purchased and downloaded from them without any physical media and I have to say that I am not a fan. I believe that there will be a place for desktop machines for many years to come even if it exists nowhere but in manufacturing industry and with curmudgeons like me.

[Vanraw]

Yes, there will be a place for desktops. I dont see that going away. Its more about the masses then the gamers or graphic artist and such.

FYI steam isnt cloud computing. But things like youtube, face book, a gazzilion google apps, are. Cloud computing has been with us for a long time already. Its just a new buzz word. Forinstance, I can use Picasa (a Google app) to store and sort and publish photo's. They can be private, or shared. And I can also edit the photo's for things like red eye, contrast, etc etc etc. And its all done in a browser. Its no Photoshop, but most people dont even know how to use photoshop.

Thinks like spreadsheets and word and even power point should not have to be loaded on your HD anymore.

[Zirak]

I realize Steam is not cloud computing - I merely mentioned it because it is the closest I will ever come to cloud computing.

[Grieve]

....
And speaking of which, macs are going gangbusters, while PCs are in decline. When I heard the VP of my group talking about "the post PC era" at an all hands recently, I knew we were in for a sea change.

Just to be clear, when most marketing dev teams talk about "post PC" era today they are talking about personnel computers being replaced with things like smart phones, and such. PC's being any desktop / laptop like device, MAC or Windows device.

Right - I shouldn't have put those two comments in the same paragraph. He was talking about replacement of desktops and notebooks with tablets, phones, and other portable devices. It was the first time I'd really heard the "post PC" phrase from anyone but Apple, though, so it caught my attention. Especially since the company I work for is an enormous corporation in the computing and storage world, so if they see this shift in focus, it's a big deal.

Here's more proof - small businesses are starting to use iPads bigtime. Not so much a toy anymore...

http://www.bizjournals.com/mobile/denver...ching.html

So back to Vllad's original argument. Apple doesn't need any new "toys" anytime soon to keep growing like crazy...the growth opportunities for macs, iPads and iPhones has enormous potential. And unlike the old days of the macs having a hefty price premium to PCs, the iPad is pretty much the cheapest fully-functional tablet out there, even now.

[Valthar^_^]

EyeOS

<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://eyeos.org/">http://eyeos.org/</a><!-- m -->

hurray, your very own cloud.

[Grieve]

Apple over $400 for the first time after earnings (even more blowout than usual). Still saying they can't make iPads fast enough to sell to all the people who want to buy them.

So to answer the question in the General thread about who will win the smartphone wars...Apple AND Google. Both are going gangbusters. RIMM is dying, and Microsoft continues to languish.

I was getting a bit jitterish about all my Apple leaps a few weeks ago when the stock was $315, but now over $400 just a few weeks later - crazy. Sure hope it can stay up there...

[Grieve]

So this graph maintains that Apple will double earnings per share in 5 years?

Perhaps it will, but I'm just not buying it. I'm probably wrong but just not buying it. What product will they have that will represent a doubling of their existing market?

Ironically, they have actually more than doubled their earnings per share in just the one year since you posted this, not 5 years. EPS was $3.51 then, and is $7.79 today. And that's without any new products in that time, and an iPhone that is a year and a half old. Just imagine what happens when they release the iPhone 5 and iPad 3 next quarter...

[Jakensama]

Since when is the ipad 3 going to be next quarter?

Might be a record for planned obsolescence.. I bet even some apple fanbois might take umbrage and dropping 5 or 600 bucks on a product that had a 9 month lifestyle until they were expected to upgrade.

[Grieve]

Rumor is that it will be a high-end iPad for professionals, more expensive and four times the resolution. So more an "iPad Pro" than an iPad 3. A bit like a Mac Pro coexisting with a regular Mac.

[Vanraw]

Congrats Grieve. Very impressive. You have been on this thing and calling it correct from the beginning.

When do you retire?

[Grieve]

Ha, no retiring, at least not until I convince my wife to let me quit my job and trade stocks full time (which is to say, never).

I'm not trying to crow about being right, though. As a stock investing forum, I'm genuinely trying to convince you guys that Apple is (still) a great investment. Picture me as Darth Vader reaching out his hand to Luke (you) and intoning "Join me..."

I love talking about stocks, and I always want to hear anyones picks and theories as to what to get into next. I've had a lot of picks work out great this year (FFIV, FCX, POT, GOOG), while others have been horrible (MSFT, HAS, TBT, CSCO). Worst of all has been RBCN, which I had doubled my money in and didn't sell (stock at $28), and now it's plummeted ($14) and I'm losing basically my whole investment.

If I just stuck with Apple only and nothing else I'd be way better off...

[Breand]

I bought AAPL on April 20th and it's up 13% since then. I'll take it. SLV is having a nice comeback too, still up 65% even after it's crash. and i felt like I bought GLD at the top of the market but it's still up 11% for me. =) The only negative stock in my portfolio right now is SB down 5%.

[Slamz]

Amazon has been a big performer for me. I bought at around $179 and they just peaked at $220. I sold when I was up by 20%. It kept going up, of course. I was warned against it early on because their P/E is so high but I think they're just going to keep getting bigger. I'm kinda hoping to see a little "bubble burst" action in which case I'll buy more. They keep diversifying in interesting ways, basically looking to become an "online superstore", I think. Music, streaming video, cloud storage, Android app store, and I hear they're getting ready to do an Android tablet? Hard to say how any of these ventures will pan out but the fact that they are staying active and looking for ways to expand is promising. (And the ways they are expanding generally seem smart. With such a large web presence, adding streaming video and cloud storage probably didn't cost them much, so I feel they're keeping a good eye on risk vs reward.)

[Vanraw]

Yea I think Amazon is an amazing story. So is Netflix.

Big question is whats the next big thing....

[Vanraw]

So I jumped into Apple a while back and I'm currently up 20%. Usually when a stock hits 20% I look to sell. What do you guys think the "Realistic" top end is?

[Breand]

I think they still have a ways to go. Im up 20% too but Im still long on this. I think Apple will get to a place where there is virtually no difference between a PC and a portable device and they will just completely dominate the market. It seems like where so many companies are taking a step back in tech or progress(RIM and HP), Apple is making leaps forward.

[Grieve]

You two are such freakin' Apple fanboys...

I think it goes over $500 and then keeps on going. But there might be a "sell on the news" event once the iPhone is announced, which looks like being on Oct 5th. I think earnings will be blowout (again) and push them higher.

Looks like they are getting into the 1 billion subscriber China market in a big way with an entry level iPhone 4, which could be a much bigger market for them than the US.

I'm holding my call spreads for now.

[Vanraw]

Im really kicking myself for not selling when I was 20% up......

The Amazon launch was hurtfull......

Do you think the iPhone 5 is gonna bump the stock??

[Grieve]

Same here.

I don't know, I'm a bit worried about the iPhone 5 launch...I feel it will inevitably not meet huge expectations. The big feature looks like ultra-advance voice recognition, but I suspect investors more want fancy hardware.

I do think any drop will be offset by blowout earnings a week or so later, though.

[Grieve]

Then again, now the rumors of 4G (on AT&T at least - HSPA+) are back...

http://9to5mac.com/2011/09/29/china-unic...a-support/

There are also more rumors of a bigger screen. If both those things are true, I would expect a big pop on the stock.