Apple

[Grieve]

Do you think the iPhone 5 is gonna bump the stock??

News all over the Apple rumor sites this week is that there will be no iPhone 5, only an iPhone 4S (same body, faster processor and bigger camera).

If that's the case, AAPL is going to tank HARD on Tuesday. I can't quite bring myself to believe it, but it is plausible (there was an iPhone 3G and then a 3GS a year later with the same design).

If the market pops on Monday, I may well sell some of my call spreads. If it sinks lower, I'll probably cling on and hope earnings juice the stock.

[Grieve]

Latest rumor is that iPhone 5 will be a Sprint-only exclusive, which is pretty insane.

However, the WSJ article about the Sprint deal shows why Apple is a great investment. Sprint HAS to buy 30.5 million iPhones, no matter if they can sell them or not, over the next four years. Apparently Apple has similar deals with other carriers. How awesome is it to have guaranteed income four years out?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/0...4020111003

[Vanraw]

Latest rumor is that iPhone 5 will be a Sprint-only exclusive, which is pretty insane.

However, the WSJ article about the Sprint deal shows why Apple is a great investment. Sprint HAS to buy 30.5 million iPhones, no matter if they can sell them or not, over the next four years. Apparently Apple has similar deals with other carriers. How awesome is it to have guaranteed income four years out?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/0...4020111003

Yea thats pretty amazing.

FYI I heard that the sprint deal was 30 million phones for the right to sell the iphone 5 on their network, not exclusive.

I find it hard to believe that Apple would do an exclusive agreement in this space where everyone wants their product. 30 million is a drop in the bucket.

[Grieve]

As expected, iPhone 4S only, stock getting smoked. Too much expectation and rumors.

On the plus side, my puts I bought for $200 each have gotten to to as much as $625! I should have sold there, stock seems to be recovering a bit now.

[Jakensama]

Bounced back fairly quick, wallstreet understands the power of the mind control iDevices..

[Vanraw]

Whole market did a schizoed bounce at the 11th hour.

[Grieve]

Yeah, that was pretty crazy - definitely wasn't any particular strength in Apple. If the market tanks again tomorrow, I'm sure it will take Apple with it. Sounds like it was based on a report from the FT about EU finance ministers coordinating recapitalizations. I'm sure it will be back to doom and gloom by tomorrow morning.

Meanwhile, I'll be getting an iPhone 4S, as soon as my plans lets me (soon). The Siri assistant integration looks pretty awesome.

[Jakensama]

I forsee legions of fucking hipsters on the trains talking to their phones as if they were people now and weep...

Although I will say the popularity of sms in general has told us that people don't buy phones to actually have to speak

[Vanraw]

.......

Meanwhile, I'll be getting an iPhone 4S, as soon as my plans lets me (soon). The Siri assistant integration looks pretty awesome.

Pffft, 3g is so yesterday...

[Vanraw]

CUPERTINO, CA—During a highly anticipated media event held today at the Apple corporation’s world headquarters, CEO Tim Cook announced the new iPhone 4S is good and people should buy it. “It’s a good phone,” said Cook, walking out onto a stage and gesturing at a picture of the device projected on a large screen behind him. "It's got e-mail, the Internet, and you can get apps on it. Everybody should get one. It's good." After standing in place fo]r another four seconds without speaking, Cook walked off stage, at which point the houselights came up and all in attendance were asked to please file out of the auditorium.

<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.theonion.com/articles/apple-new-iphone-good,26257/">http://www.theonion.com/articles/apple- ... ood,26257/</a><!-- m -->

[Jakensama]

<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://us.cnn.com/2011/10/05/tech/iphone-injunction/index.html?hpt=hp_t2">http://us.cnn.com/2011/10/05/tech/iphon ... ?hpt=hp_t2</a><!-- m -->

Hahaha, two can play at this game - silly appl€.

This is why Amanda Knox really got on a plane out of Italy, so she can get an iphone next week..

[Grieve]

Samsung had already said they were going to do this as soon as the new phone came out, no surprises. Their case is very weak - they are suing on the basis of "FRAND" (fair, reasonable and non-discriminatory) patents, which by law they can't deny to anyone. They just have to agree to a fair licensing fee.

[Jakensama]

Apples case is largely without merit as well, but they found a court system they could get an injunction in to fuck the competition - I assume Samsung has found similar caveats in the French/Italian systems that give them a shot at causing some pain to apple - more power to them.

[Vanraw]

I think its the same kind of "flagrant" law suit that Apple is doing to Samsung. Note that Apple is doing its lawsuit on touchy feel. There premis is like Ford suing BMW because Ford has cars with doors and a steering wheel. Apple is doing one thing. They are trying to stop the 2011 xmas sales. After that the product will be hurt so bad, they wont care anymore.

I hope Samsung files suit to prevent Apple to sell / launch the 4s in the US and or China. That would force them to drop the bull shit, and let competitiveness dictate success.

Samsung sounds like they are going to get serious since apple just ignored and poo pooed Samsungs offer this week. I think the gloves are off, because Samsung is saying if we cant launch now, then we might as well stretch this battle into 2012.....

"Apple has continued to flagrantly violate our intellectual property rights and free ride on our technology, and we will steadfastly protect our intellectual property," Samsung said in a statement.

[Airyth]

Will the stock tank on news of Steve Jobs death?
I know he stepped down already but it still could fuel some panic with him actually being dead.

[Grieve]

Based on today, it appears to holding up pretty well.

My guess is there won't be a big move until earnings in a couple of weeks. This quarter is almost certainly very strong, so it all depends on the guidance for next quarter.

The other big factor is when the 4S goes on sale. If we don't see lines around the block for it (and I think there's a good chance we won't), the negative headlines might trigger a selloff.

[Grieve]

Holy shit, Apple missed...for the first time in like a decade.

Why oh why didn't I buy those puts? My finger was hovering over the button...

[Grieve]

Looks like iPhone sales were the problem...3m under the estimate. I don't know why they were so high...obviously everyone was waiting for the new phone.

EPS was $7.05 (vs $7.22 street, and $9.00 whisper). Revenue was $28.3b (vs $29.5b street, and $32b+ whisper).

However...for a change, the next quarter estimates are above forecasts (for a change), so that's probably why the stock isn't tanking as much as you'd expect. They're saying $9.30 and $37b (vs $8.98 and $36.6b).

[Vanraw]

Holy shit, Apple missed...for the first time in like a decade.

Why oh why didn't I buy those puts? My finger was hovering over the button...

I'm glad I sold, but the puts were a scary thought. Who knows how it would have ended....

[Grieve]

They are riding high again today, after Jobs all but confirmed an "iTV" in his biography.

I think it could be pretty big. I was discussing with my wife today, as she got frustrated searching through our DVR (we have a 2TB drive) for an old show she had recorded. As I said to her, imagine being able to just say "play the Grey's Anatomy I recorded three weeks ago" via a Siri interface. Or "Just play the last 5 minutes of the show ". Or "record Modern Family while we're on vacation" (via integration with your calendar). Maybe even "who's the actress on the screen right now?", and "Show me what other movies she's been in", or "bring up her bio on IMDB". How about "Check if my sister is watching the show, and if she isn't, send her a message letting her know Al Pacino is guest starring".

Siri is going to be pretty big, for smartphones, TV, cars...everything.

[Jakensama]

Especially as now anytime any other company tries to compete and make a better speech interpretation engine they will just sue the fuck out of them because Steve Jobs invented the idea...

[Airyth]

Apple has a lawsuit against me since my conversation with my wife about where we should go to dinner sounded too much like the interface used with siri.

[Breand]

nice read about Siri being a very scary thing for google:

<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericjackson/2011/10/28/why-siri-is-a-google-killer/">http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericjackson ... le-killer/</a><!-- m -->

[Vanraw]

Funny thing about apple and google 1 is an advertising company and the other is a hardware company.

[Grieve]

Agree about Siri - it's a game-changer.

Maul, I disagree that Apple is a hardware company. It's a hardware and software company, which is it's strength. The software (OSX, iOS) is just as important as the hardware.

In fact, in a smartphone and tablet world where hardware specs are increasingly meaningless (cos there's always something better a week later), software is going to be the big differentiator. It's easy to one-up a competitor on hardware - someone is going to beat the iPhone 4S specs very quickly (you could argue some phones beat them already). But it would take years to develop something as strong as Siri. The latest release of Android nothing even remotely as "sexy" to compete. Even more important is the ecosystem - the way the iPhone, the iPad, and Apple TV all seamlessly work together. Until you try airplaying a game on your big screen TV you don't realize how cool it is.

Which is why I'll be winning my best against Jake.