Android already surpasses iPhone

[Moristans]

Type on a keyboard instead of a craptastic touch screen pseudo keyboard? (Actually I don't know, there may be android devices out there with keyboards somewhere..)

Yeah, the Motorola Droid has a fully functional slide-out keyboard. Again, choices that you just don't have with proprietary Apple products.

[Jakensama]

The more I play with the HTC desire the more I am liking it, I don't know if i can switch away from my blackberry completely but its tempting.

[Moristans]

My GF switched from a Blackberry to the HTC Droid Eris. She was never a "business" user but she loves the Eris. She also says that my iPhone feels big, heavy, and clunky compared to the Droid Eris.

[Riz]

Just because I cannot resist an "I told you so", I did mention that the metrics for this report were very skewed. Apple has already sold out of all new iPhones for the release day. That's right, in ONE DAY, they sold out of the stock in Apple, AT&T, Best Buy and Radio Shack stores (those were the stores that were getting models for the 24th). So, in short, the Android did not, in fact, surpass the iPhone, and it falling behind fast as of today.

[Slamz]

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Apple vs Motorola has the same feel to it as Apple vs IBM.

It's not really Apple vs Motorola, just like it wasn't really Apple vs IBM -- it's Apple and their closed, proprietary system versus an operating system that's openly available to be run by any hardware anyone wants to build to support it.

Apple might beat Motorola, just like they basically beat IBM in the desktop computer market, but they'll probably lose to Android just like they lost to MS-DOS.


In fact, in the chart above, you might as well combine the Motorola Droid and Nexus One figures. That's like IBM and Compaq. They may be different brands but they both work on the same OS.

I hear what you're saying about problems in programming for various hardware platforms running the same OS, but that somehow didn't stop the PC market. I distinctly recall when playing old, old PC games, having to pick my graphics card from a list of 30 so it would know how to run the game. It was apparently considered better to put up with the hassles of dealing with 30 different video cards than to simply write for the Apple and get cut off from the MS-DOS market. (And eventually the OS itself handled the hardware differences, as Microsoft started doing with DirectX and HAL type concepts.)


In the long run, it's not the popularity of a particular brand that determines the winner, it's the popularity of the OS.


My prediction:
Some years from now, the iPhone will be running the Android OS or whatever it evolves into, just like Macs today can run Windows. Apple eventually will have to deal with the fact that they can't run a private OS on private hardware and compete with another OS that is allowed to run on ANYONE's hardware.

[Riz]

You do know that Apple most likely sold over a million phones YESTERDAY...right? ONE FUCKING DAY.

What you are looking at is a cherry-picked data from the 1g model, where people where unsure about smartphones and current data where smartphones are pretty common.

Since that brief 3 month stint, iPhones are outselling Android devices again by a large amount. Pointing to that statistic like it means anything is actually statistically non-nonsensical.

[Moristans]

I have an iPhone and I'll switch to an Android phone as soon as I can buy out of my contract with AT&T. I hate their proprietary bullshit.

[Riz]

Your numbers look kind of pathetic when compared to this...


That means the iPhone 3Gs outsold, in ONE WEEK, the combined sales of Android phones in 74 days? Wow...you are right. Android is winning. Oh yeah, they aren't. I'm paying close attention to this. It's not a matter of preference to me, it's a matter of fact. I'm making a healthy profit off App store sales and to be honest, the one port I did to the Android wasn't worth my time or effort in the end.

Cold hard facts: The iPhone outsells the Android. People actually DO want proprietary bullshit. Geeks don't. That's why Linux fails to grab the consumer market. Apple banked on people wanting Appliances for computing. They seem to be right (iPad sales are doing quite well still and would seem to prove the argument for them). At this point, with over 100 million iOS devices out there, it's the ONLY market to aim for if you are a serious developer. Coding for the Android is about as fiscally rewarding as coding for BeOS was....

[Arsilon]

Find: Android & iPhone
Replace with: Conservative & Liberal or Republican & Democrat

and you see a lot of the heel digging and facts/stats throwing you might find over on the politics board

[Slamz]

The only problem with the iPhone is that you have to switch to AT&T to use it.

That's always been the problem with it.

It's not like there's some political problem with Apple's stance.

I don't particularly care that they are proprietary.

I care that I can't buy a Verizon iPhone, and I'm not switching to AT&T.


That's what's going to cause Apple to lose market share. In the end, either the iPhone comes out for other major carriers or the Android OS simply takes over because everyone in the world will actually be able to use it. How long has the iPhone been out and it's still "in talks" when it comes to other networks?

What's the holdup?

[Riz]

The holdup is the agreement AT&T struck with Apple, keeping them from releasing it to other carriers. According to a public court record, that's in 2012...so still a bit away. Bad news for Apple in some places.

Honestly, as I've said, I don't mind. Here in Pittsburgh, AT&T is great. Verizon is great. Sprint has some troubles in parts of the suburbs (no clue why). So, the network isn't an issue with me. Like I said though, for me, it's all about market share. Apple, with one carrier, is beating the folks who are on multiple carriers. World-wide, where AT&T isn't really an issue, Apple is doing even better. Currently, their gamble is paying off.

[Dustie]

You do know that Apple most likely sold over a million phones YESTERDAY...right? ONE FUCKING DAY.

What you are looking at is a cherry-picked data from the 1g model, where people where unsure about smartphones and current data where smartphones are pretty common.

Since that brief 3 month stint, iPhones are outselling Android devices again by a large amount. Pointing to that statistic like it means anything is actually statistically non-nonsensical.

I'm not an expert in this area, but I can't find any data to support your numbers. It seems to me that when comparing quarterly numbers (such as Q1 2010), Android OS unit sales are 2nd to RIM's OS pushing Apples OS to 3rd. Am I reading things like this wrong?

http://www.npd.com/press/releases/press_100510.html

PORT WASHINGTON, NEW YORK, MAY 10, 2010 - The Android operating system (OS) continued to shake up the U.S. mobile phone market in the first quarter (Q1) of 2010, moving past Apple to take the number-two position among smartphone operating systems, according to The NPD Group, a leading market research company. NPD’s wireless market research reveals that based on unit sales to consumers last quarter the Android operating system moved into second position at 28 percent behind RIM’s OS (36 percent) and ahead of Apple’s OS (21 percent).

[Riz]

The NPD numbers were sales figures over 3 months only. Not totals. They picked a period where Android devices were being sold on a buy-one-get-one-free deal, while at the same time, was during the slow time for iPhones, due to everybody waiting for the next phone announcement. Those numbers mean nothing. Hell, they are marketing at its worst.

That's like saying: I have a business. I've been selling $10 Million a day (yeah, I have a great business here in my contrived example). Skelas comes along and starts selling the same product. He normally sells $5 million a day (still good, but not quite the market entrenchment I have). For a week, Skelas sells $5 Million, but during that week, since I'm introducing a new product line, I sell only $3 Million a day. You cannot produce a report that says he's overtaking me using just that week's data in ANY GOOD CONSCIENCE. Even GOOGLE discredited those numbers.

As for the figures that Slamz posted, Flurry is a pretty valid source of data. All I did was pull what they agree is a more realistic comparison of data. Taking his data and the data I showed, states that without a doubt, the iPhone is outpacing the Android by an outstanding margin.

For my 1 days sales, Apple presold 600,000 units. That's over 1/2 million ALREADY PAID FOR and it's not even released yet. They never presell more than 50% of their stock, as they leave that for in-store reservations (standard and well-documented Apple practice). That means, since they are no longer able to accept reservations either, they have ALREADY SOLD or have reservations for, over a million devices. That's what they will sell OPENING DAY. They have the supply line to make a little over 2 million a month....TWO MILLION A MONTH. Note, they haven't even opened ordering to the International Market yet. This is a US release ONLY.

How can you look at those numbers and not concede that somebody, even if it's just yuppy douchebags, is buying what Apple is selling (the whole constrained experience). By somebody btw, I mean a hell of a lot more somebodies than are buying into Android devices.

Developer share on Android devices is pathetic. Apple may piss us, as developers, off quite often, but dammit in the end, we have to fucking eat, so we will bend over and even give them some pushback action if that's what it takes. Why? The current iOS market share is too big to not want to suck on the tit of.

[Fretty]

Apple may piss us, as developers, off quite often, but dammit in the end, we have to fucking eat, so we will bend over and even give them some pushback action if that's what it takes. Why? The current iOS market share is too big to not want to suck on the tit of.

FTW

[Dustie]

The NPD numbers were sales figures over 3 months only. Not totals.

Yes, 3 months is one quarter, I'm not trying to hide that:

..when comparing quarterly numbers (such as Q1 2010)...

They picked a period where Android devices were being sold on a buy-one-get-one-free deal, while at the same time, was during the slow time for iPhones, due to everybody waiting for the next phone announcement. Those numbers mean nothing.

Yes, they mean nothing except that during the first quarter of this year, more Android OS smartphones were sold then iPhones.

Hell, they are marketing at its worst.

That's like saying: I have a business. I've been selling $10 Million a day (yeah, I have a great business here in my contrived example). Skelas comes along and starts selling the same product. He normally sells $5 million a day (still good, but not quite the market entrenchment I have). For a week, Skelas sells $5 Million, but during that week, since I'm introducing a new product line, I sell only $3 Million a day. You cannot produce a report that says he's overtaking me using just that week's data in ANY GOOD CONSCIENCE. Even GOOGLE discredited those numbers.

I think we all understand the business cycle and the product cycle, but you can't argue that comparing quarterly results is "contrived." You can get these nubmers directly from Apples 10Q for example:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3...7/d10q.htm
(Search for iPhone Unit Sales and compare Q1 2010 and Q1 2009)

As for the figures that Slamz posted, Flurry is a pretty valid source of data. All I did was pull what they agree is a more realistic comparison of data. Taking his data and the data I showed, states that without a doubt, the iPhone is outpacing the Android by an outstanding margin.

Apple was outpacing Android but Android devices outsold iPhone devices in Q1 by a large margin.

For my 1 days sales, Apple presold 600,000 units. That's over 1/2 million ALREADY PAID FOR and it's not even released yet. They never presell more than 50% of their stock, as they leave that for in-store reservations (standard and well-documented Apple practice). That means, since they are no longer able to accept reservations either, they have ALREADY SOLD or have reservations for, over a million devices. That's what they will sell OPENING DAY. They have the supply line to make a little over 2 million a month....TWO MILLION A MONTH. Note, they haven't even opened ordering to the International Market yet. This is a US release ONLY.

How can you look at those numbers and not concede that somebody, even if it's just yuppy douchebags, is buying what Apple is selling (the whole constrained experience). By somebody btw, I mean a hell of a lot more somebodies than are buying into Android devices.

I hear you, but I agree with Slamz that in the long run, the more open devices will tend to win out.

Developer share on Android devices is pathetic. Apple may piss us, as developers, off quite often, but dammit in the end, we have to fucking eat, so we will bend over and even give them some pushback action if that's what it takes. Why? The current iOS market share is too big to not want to suck on the tit of.

I'm sure you're right that the iPhone platform is more rewarding for developers so I would focus on that and hope that the Android doesn't continue to do well. =)

[Moristans]

Apple may piss us, as developers, off quite often, but dammit in the end, we have to fucking eat, so we will bend over and even give them some pushback action if that's what it takes. Why? The current iOS market share is too big to not want to suck on the tit of.

So Riz, this seems like a craptacular, if profitable, business arrangement. Doesn't sound like you have any love for the company. The whole app market is the reason why the iPhone is as successful as it is. Doesn't sound like pissing off the goose that lays the golden apps is a good strategy. Without developers writing apps for the iPhone, how long to do you think Apple can maintain it's share? Whatever the share of the market Android has now, sounds like Apple is either going to have to snuff out the competition completely or deal with a slow bleed as Android gains market share using traction supplied by a bunch of developers tired of taking it up the 2 hole.

[Jakensama]

The only problem with the iPhone is that you have to switch to AT&T to use it.

And AT&T has gotten rid of it's unlimited data plans because of the popularity.. Which isn't a problem with an iphone, since the new data plan wont hit people other than hard core nerds.. But for the ipad, whose selling point is watching video and video takes up a touch of bandwidth....

[Moristans]

And AT&T has gotten rid of it's unlimited data plans because of the popularity..

Other carriers will follow suit.

But for the ipad, whose selling point is watching video and video takes up a touch of bandwidth....

Well, are you tied to a data plan to download content or can you go wifi? I honestly haven't been keeping up.

[Riz]

I have the wifi iPad and honestly, I have yet to wish for 3g for it. Hell, I'm never anywhere that I have it that doesn't have free wifi. Fucking McDonalds has free Wifi now.

The unlimited data plans were always a joke. They all cap at 5gig. Most people don't even use 200 meg in a month. Hell, I'm a serious dork who uses his phone a TON, and I only went over 180 meg ONCE in 2 years (which is how far back I looked). I could go with the 250 meg plan and not notice a thing. I'm just enough of a paranoid asshole that I'm keeping my unlimited plan. No clue why, as it's throwing money away according to all facts and figures. Just something inside me says "what if I NEED it"? I'm an idiot.

Verizon will actually need to do the same with data plans as more and more traffic comes onto their sites due to smartphone use in general. They have started to feel it, but not nearly as bad as AT&T. Give it time. They need to build a better infrastructure (all the telcos) if they are going to support that kind of network traffic in the largest markets.

As for developers, here is the thing Mori (and it's my true and honest assessment)
For the short term (and I'm talking the next couple years), Apple will remain the only true player in the market. This is because it takes time to build a solid community of developers and you need to court them properly. Right now, the big shops are all looking at Apple. The indies are, because it's an easy barrier of entry and they all want that mad "doodle jump" money. Facts are, most people don't make diddly on the App Store. You have to market it and know your audience.

Microsoft is actually more of a contender than Android for the next big thing. Windows Mobile 7 is a joke compared to the other OS contenders, but they are PAYING developers who are successful on the Apple platform to port their apps (then they can still sell them). The face that the tools to do the development are also free and probably the most robust IDE on the market, it's compelling.

Do I like my iPhone? Yes. Would I like an Android as much? Most likely (I've only played with them, not put one seriously through its paces to know for sure). Do I absolutely love my iPad? BEST FUCKING DEVICE EVER CREATED IMO...that's the money honestly. Perfect at what it does.

Do I like Apple? Fuck No. Microsoft wants your money. Apple wants to control what you do. Google wants all your information. All three scare the fuck out of me. I'm a whore. My side development is strictly where I can make money. It's all cash I can put away to someday retire. I've been at this sort of thing for years, and moved from device/os/whatever as it's been profitable. I think at least until the end of 2012, it's all Apple. After that, who knows...that's the exciting thing about technology. Google needs to stop trying to copy Apple if they want to beat them. The Kin may be a POS, but at least it's original.

[Grieve]

I have the 3G iPad, but I cancelled the 3G plan after the first month because I don't need it (I needed it that first month because I was travelling, and wanted to it use it on the move). Like Riz, I've never gone over 200MB, let alone 2GB, on my iPhone. The iPad is a different beast because you are more likely to stream Netflix or TV, but then you will generally be using WiFi for that. If you are travelling you can just load it up with movies, like I did.

I think it's mistake to say that AT&T-only was a misstep for Apple. Look at it this way - they are only on one carrier (in the US), and they've STILL sold tens of millions of phone. That just means tens of millions more potential customers when (and it is "when") they expand to other carriers, as they've done in every other country. (And Slamz, dunno what your AT&T issue is - the service in the DC/MD area is excellent).

As for the AT&T data plan changes, every other carrier will do the same thing. Frankly they'd be dumb not to. What are all the data-hogs on AT&T going to do? Move to the other carriers and clog up their networks instead! Also, remember, the new plans are CHEAPER than the unlimited plan AT&T previously had.

I love my iPhone, and I REALLY love my iPad. I'm not alone - surveys show "the rate at which Android users would like to try an iPhone is twice as high as that of iPhone users who would try Android". The stunning first day of iPhone 4 preorders proves that - I must have tried 30 times to preorder and couldn't do it. I think Apple will dominate for the foreseeable future, and as an investor, that's all I really care about. Heading towards a new all-time high as I write this...

Edit: BTW, Apple expected to sell 9.5 MILLION iPhones just this quarter, plus another 10m next quarter. It's like printing money... http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2010/06/16/a...d=yahoo_hs

[Jakensama]

Well, are you tied to a data plan to download content or can you go wifi? I honestly haven't been keeping up.

Why would you get an ipad if you were just sitting at home on your wifi, why not spend the same amount of money on a laptop that does more and doesn't tether you to Steve Jobs Approved apps?

The Mrs. has one of these stupid things and having used it I don't understand the appeal of it. (Although my opinions don't matter when princess wants something bad enough apparently...) My kindle is a better ereader, if I watch media at home I stream it to my TV, to surf I have a PC and a Laptop.

What does it do that I couldn't already - except be another gay device without a keyboard.

[Riz]

At home on wifi? The city of Pittsburgh has wifi in the entire downtown area for free. Every McDonalds has free wifi. Every coffee shop in the city has free wifi. Every hotel has free wifi (for customers). Hell, it's hard NOT to find free wifi in this town.

As for using it at home instead of a laptop...it's a different dynamic. It's easier to use it in the living room and still be part of the family conversation. It's easier to pass around.

[Jakensama]

Well if I ever move to Pittsburgh it might be usefull. But then I would have to become a steelers fan and thats far too depressing. Although I suppose that is handy, with city wide wifi and the ipad you can keep up with whoever Roethlisberger has raped lately...


Although the thought of fatasses at McDonalds getting their big mac grease all over their expensive toy brings a smile to my face.

[Riz]

In the interests of fairness and love of a good laugh...

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[Zirak]

From the perspective of someone who does not own a cell phone of any kind because I'm not willing to pay for the device or the service...

I know several guys at work who own iPhones and I have looked at their iPhones and toyed around with them and found them pretty spiffy devices. I purchased an iPod for my wife last year for her birthday and it is a very nice little machine. We recently hired a new engineer here and today at lunch he pulled out his HTC Evo. By the time folks were done comparing capabilities and widgets everyone who had an iPhone was wishing they had the Evo instead.